Getting ready to short Travelzoo (TZOO)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 08.31.2010 (7:01 am) | Write a Comment  (0 Comments)

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Have you taken a look at the charts of travel internet company Travelzoo (TZOO) in the past few days? Not as crazy as investors in 3Par or other acquisition targets but it remains impressive to see how much the stock has gained in recent action.

Monday I could not open a new trade because I still have 5 live trades but one stock that was discussed in the Premium Newsletter last weekend was Travelzoo. I would not go short a stock that gained over 25% in a couple of days to a avoid being against such strong momentum but it would certainly make sense to strongly consider shorting the stock when things will calm down a little. I have shorted Travelzoo against Priceline earlier this year with great success mostly because valuations were not consistent with a stock that has not generated that much growth in recent years. So why does it trade so high? Because for some investors Travelzoo shareholders are easily excitable.

It happened again

The odd thing about the recent rise is that there wasn’t anything “material” behind it. The main factor that contributed to Travelzoo’s rise was an announcement that it would start offering a “Groupon” like service. What is Groupon? It has been at the centre of a lot of hype in recent weeks as it gains a lot of traction similar to what Facebook & Twitter experienced after a few months. You can visit the website if you’ve never heard of it but basically it gives out coupons targetted to where users live. The concept is simple but brilliant and has been generating copycats everywhere.

Travelzoo will certainly be able to generate business by using the concept but will it be enough to justify a 25% increase? Not likely I would say. They do have millions of emails and will certainly put effort into getting more info about the subscribers such as the city they live in, but so do competitors such as Expedia (EXPE) and Priceline (PCLN)

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