The election of Donald Trump was always going to mean the months ahead would be interesting. He is viewed variously in society as a businessman who would shake up the political community to a man who was a bully with little substance. He has insufficient knowledge to do the job his critics say. In his first weeks, he has already been confronted with questions about the selection of his key personnel, has backed down over healthcare despite having a republican majority in both Houses and now his financial ideas are about to be scrutinized.

Credit Issues

Credit strategists have observed contraction in bank lending; money supply has slowed and this is certain to have an impact on the economy. Already Trump has announced an increase in military spending and that will inevitably impact on the domestic budget because the Republicans certainly do not want to increase Federal spending.

The US Federal Reserve figures show that commercial and industrial loans hit their peak in December and have been falling since then. The rate of decline is the fastest since the same time eight years ago. With loans and leases declining as well, the action of the Fed. to raise rates has been met with surprise. This has yet to have a major impact on equity markets but credit has regularly been something that identifies trouble before it arrives.

Worrying Trend

Trump believes he can provide momentum and expansion to the US economy; after all he is an experienced and successful businessman his supporters point out. It is not going to be straightforward it seems. Experts from Morgan Stanley see this trend as worrying, pointing out that credit squeezes historically lead to recession. The current figures are bringing back concerns about another financial crisis, similar to the one caused by the Collateralized Debt Obligations that brought such devastation to Wall Street and beyond.

The IMF has studies over 120 recessions in the world’s richest economies over the last half century and slumps have inevitably been preceded by the slowdown of credit in the months leading up to them. Without necessarily concluding that there is a sure sign of recession ahead, the figures are nevertheless concerning.

Caution

Certainly investors should be cautious. Those who are nearing retirement and do not want to take any major risks with their funds should be especially careful and find safe havens for their money. A recent Markit PMI survey has identified that US business is weaker than it has been since before the election and growth is remaining elusive. There had been signs of a boom on the way last year but there is a strong argument that it may have already reached its peak.

Lack of Growth Policies

US business it seems has debt that has been used to pay dividends or buy back stock bonds rather than to create growth. Every dollar of new debt is generating a mere 17 cents of extra GDP, a quarter of what it did in the 60s. Certainly some business strategists will be waiting to hear what Donald Trump has in mind on taxation yet already there are questions about whether is policies are either sensible or achievable. The Markets appear to be taking a more positive view than some of the analysts but individual investors should be very careful.

Time is important; delay will only increase uncertainty and perhaps help in precipitating problems? The Republicans are keen on tax cuts but whether Trump delivers in line with his pre–election rhetoric is far from certain. There are certain to be battles ahead because there are many within the Republican Party who seem to be as opposed to Trump as they were to the Democratic Candidate, Hillary Clinton.

Business will go its own way. Decision makers looking at their financial figures and devising future strategy are likely to have a cushion in place for mistakes. Individual investors often have no such cushion and a poor decision can cause untold harm, especially for the average couple that is approaching retirement and building up a fund to provide a comfortable life. The coming months are likely to see volatility in society anyway; the important thing for people is to give plenty of thought about where to invest their money and minimize the risk.

Who cares the most about you? Who knows the most about you? Politicians like to smile, kiss babies and make you feel special. But, in the end, you are free to live your life and only you can build your wealth.

There is no government program that will make you great. Even, if the United States becomes great again, that might not translate to your financial portfolio. Learn why you should concentrate on making gold great again.

Gold is Great

Throughout history, the leaders of the world have tried to control gold. American President Franklin Delano Roosevelt confiscated gold when the country was in the Great Depression. China forbade ownership of gold under the communists. Why do politicians seek to control gold?

Gold is money. Gold is power. The elite are just like you, they were born of a mother. They put their pants on, one leg at a time, just like you. What is the difference between the elite and you?

The elite own gold.

While the powerful have been holding down the price of gold, they have been purchasing it behind-the-scenes. The Russians and Chinese are now buying gold in droves. The Indians have always purchased gold for their Hindu weddings.

At the beginning of 2017, there are signs of the gold price rising again. Are the wise “making gold great again?”

Gold Does Not Rust

“Gold is the perfect metal. It is soft, does not rust and can be used for industrial purposes. It is also hygienic, which is why it is used in teeth.”, adds Harald Seiz CEO of Karatbars International.

During Brexit, the masses bid up the price of gold. Some are whispering about the return of the “Gold Standard.” This would lead to the increase of gold as people purchased the precious metal to conduct trade.

Be Great: Buy Gold

Mr. Harald Seiz believes that “everyone should have the opportunity to obtain good, solid financial protection.” The wealthy own gold and lease it out from Switzerland. This gives them a steady stream of income. Gold is basically indestructible.

Gold protects against the “ever-recurring financial crises,” which some say are rigged by the powerful. You can purchase Harald Seiz gold Karatbars and be part of the solution. If you want to be #1 and win the gold medal, then you must join in with the wise people who are working to “make gold great again

OPEC succeeded in getting its member nations and some other non-OPEC producers to agree to a deal to cut their oil output last year. The output cuts were necessary in order to halt the supply glut that has depressed oil prices for much of the last three years. The supply of crude oil has outpaced the demand due to the return of producers such as Iran and Libya as well as an increase in U.S. shale oil production.  However, it seems that the deal might be unraveling at the seams because some countries are not committed to holding their ends of the deal.

U.S. Shale oil cast dark shadows on the prospects of oil

Crude oil has managed to find support around $55 per barrel up from its $30 lows at the beginning of 2016. However, one would have expected OPEC’s deal to cut oil production to propel oil prices faster and higher towards the 2014 $100 per barrel price. The main reason oil prices haven’t spiked in tandem with OPEC’s move to reduce output is that the supply glut in oil is still persistent.

Interestingly, the supply glut situation has remained unchanged because U.S. Shale oil operators are now increasing their output from shale basins because of the uptrend in oil prices. Alex Poldoski an analyst at Saxon Trade observes that “the weak $30 price of oil made oil production unprofitable for shale oil drillers but the recent uptrend is encouraging shale operators to return to the markets.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. oil output increased by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended March 3. Interestingly, OPEC’s secretary-general Mohammad Barkindo acknowledges the influence of shale oil produces when he said “we did confess that we do not have sufficient understanding of how they operate and their impact on us.”

Saudi Arabia wants other countries to pick up the slack

Saudi Arabia oil minister Khalid Al-Falih expressed cautious optimism about the OPEC deal during his remarks at the CERAWeek that held earlier this month in Houston.  Al-Falih started by noting that the compliance level in deal to reduce output has outpaced the low expectations on OPEC’s ability to pull off the deal. In his words, “the market had low expectations, which we have exceeded by a large degree… We are definitely on the right track and are picking up speed in terms of delivery.”

However, the deal to cut production hasn’t done much to end the supply glut in oil; in fact, one can argue that OPEC’s supply cut is providing U.S. shale oil producers to increase their output. There are indications that OPEC might need to extend the deal to cut output beyond the first six months of this year if it really wants to end the supply glut in oil.

However, Al-Falih says there’s no point discussing the possibility of extending the deal beyond the first six months of the year if the other participants in the deal are not ready to uphold their ends of  the bargain. Last month, OPEC reported about 85% compliance in the deal to but the high compliance level was recorded because Saudi Arabia went out of its way to cut its output beyond its initial promise.

In Al-Falih’s words, “it is not going to be fair or acceptable that some countries will carry the burden for all… We’ve been willing to do it for the front end but we expect our friends and partners to pick up the slack as we move forward.”   Al-Falih’s also noted that Saudi Arabia “will not bear the burden of free riders… Saudi Arabia will not allow itself to be used by others. My colleagues have heard that privately, and now I’m saying it publicly.”