Everyone Is Obsessed With Apple ($AAPL)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 04.24.2012 (5:00 am) | Write a Comment  (7 Comments)

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Has it gone too far? Difficult to say but what is clear is that it seems absolutely impossible to not hear about Apple. It might be worse for me since I work in the investment field. Open a tv, a magazine, a newspaper, or start discussing with friends or neighbours and the tech giant is bound to come up over and over.

Of course, like millions of others, you might be reading this on your iPod, iPhone, iPad or on a Macbook. Which of your friends does not own at least one Apple device? Maybe an even better question would be: “How many former Apple users do you know? Users that tried it and then decided to move to competing products?“. It’s VERY rare.

Has It Reached The Obsession Level?

The question is rather easy for me to answer. As a fanatical user and an investor who has been a big believer in Apple for some time now (although many others saw it earlier), I would have to say that I have. Last weekend I was thinking about my upcoming week which had a few things planned: dinners with friends, meeting my parents, shopping with my wife, etc. And then there was also the Apple earnings to be released tonight. How in the world is that even something to look forward to?

Just try to notice today how many mentions of Apple you will see. I know, I’m not helping that stat much but I trust you are giving me a pass. Plus, if you are reading this, chances are that you don’t mind the Apple discussions too much:) As a very public believer in $AAPL‘s stock, I certainly don’t:)

Should I Be Scared?

You would think that Apple ($AAPL) believers woukd be scared of a miss on today’s earnings but it has happened so infrequently to see Apple disappoint that many of us no longer fear. I personally cannot imagine what Apple could come out with that would make me any less of a believer. It’s a possibility but a very remote one.

Apple Loves It

Apple of course is a master in keeping the obsession alive. How many phone launches have you heard about this year? When is the last one? iPhone 4S? Do you know that hundreds of phones have launched since then and dozens of tablet devices are on the market other than the iPad? Imagine when the much anticipated Apple TV comes out? Do you think the attention it will generate will be comparable in any way to the hottest tv currently on the markets (what would that be?). Of course not! It’s a very powerful thing.

$AAPL Volatility

The biggest issue that I have with all of the attention at Apple is how volatile the stock has become. Think about it. Even 2 or 3 days of the stock declining has made many doubt that the run might be over, that investors are getting out. I mean seriously? Does anyone expect any stock to rise or outperform every single week? Seriously? I have to wonder how much of it is simply the media trying to put Apple in its headlines because it attracts attention more than any other name. Trying to draw conclusions on a small decline when the company is worth $200B more than a year ago is downright insane if it’s supposed to be serious.

That has unfortunately made a lot of very short term investors get involved in $AAPL which will certainly create some outsized gains and losses as more investors try to make momentum/technical plays. I don’t personally mind that much but it does create more noise and more short term volatility. I did also see some investors deciding to get out because they feel like Apple is now much more about momentum than anything else. I personally feel that is a mistake but I can see where they are coming from.

Is It Just Me?

Sometimes I wonder if I’m just like everyone else regarding my obsession with Apple ($AAPL) and Facebook ($FB) stocks. Maybe you are not and have suggestions to help “cure” myself? Or maybe I’m more normal than I could think?:)

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7 Comments

  1. Comment by Zavi — April 24, 2012 @ 7:32 am

    According to a Bloomberg survey of 56 analysts, 48 recommend buying Apple, while only one has a recommendation to sell. The other 7 recommend to keep the stock!! I don’t think you are the only one 🙂

    I’m really interested to check out the quarterly earnings results for the second quarter this pm.

  2. Comment by Ken — April 24, 2012 @ 11:10 am

    You write “Apple is a master at keeping the obsession alive.” I would say it’s more to the point to say “Steve Jobs was a master at keeping the obsession alive.” And now that he’s gone, I don’t see anybody there will hold Apple up.

    Today’s earning will still reflect Jobs’s influence, but I predict within 10 years Apple will be bankrupt.

  3. Comment by IntelligentSpeculator — April 24, 2012 @ 11:10 am

    @Zavi – Should be very interesting tonight, so much panic/excitement going on right now…

  4. Comment by IntelligentSpeculator — April 24, 2012 @ 11:11 am

    @Ken – Bankrupt hey? I’d take that bet:)

  5. Comment by John Hunter — May 1, 2012 @ 8:38 pm

    The stock seems super cheap based on any sensible measures in my opinion. The main reason to worry is just that it has gone up so much. And maybe a related worry that it just seems likely they will have a bunch of bad news given how many straight years of great news there has been.

    But the stock price doesn’t assume great stuff continuing. Frankly the stock isn’t a bad buy if Apple were to not grow earning at all for the next 5 years. That seems kind of unlikely. it is possible iPhone profit declines drastically. But the odds of that compared to the value of what you buy today just seems like a great investment risk to take on to me.

  6. Comment by IntelligentSpeculator — May 2, 2012 @ 12:25 pm

    @John – I would agree that given everything that has gone right, at some point bad news will show up. I do still think there is much more upside than downside though

  7. Comment by IntelligentSpeculator — May 2, 2012 @ 12:25 pm

    @John – I would agree that given everything that has gone right, at some point bad news will show up. Still a good buy though in my opinion

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