Would You Bet Your Money On Beating Roger Federer At Tennis Or Tiger Woods At Golf?

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 09.21.2011 (4:31 am) | Write a Comment  (3 Comments)

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Both Roger Federer and Tiger Woods are no longer considered to be at the top of their sports (although you could argue that Federer is much closer than Tiger in that regard). That being said, how much would you be willing to wager on being able to defeat Roger Federer in tennis or Tiger in golf. You have doubts? Ok, how about I make things easier for you. You can choose the time and location. Yes, that can even mean facing off with Federer on clay, which he has struggled with throughout his career. I know, I know, he did win Roland Garros once.. But still.

Let me guess. You would not be pulling to put much money because you think your odds are very slim at best? I’d agree. To be honest, I would probably be willing to bet some amount of money (getting the opportunity to play Roger on a tennis court would be incredible) but I would expect my chances of winning at 0%. Not more, not less

What’s My Point?

If you don’t think you’d stand a chance competing with these guys, what in the world makes you think you can compete in the markets. Seriously. How in the world will you be able to find the next Apple when there are analysts in big firms that are:

-Spending their entire year looking at a few companies
-Hiring assistants to gather data
-Meeting with executives from those companies, their suppliers and clients
-etc

What makes you think that you have a shot at coming up with the right pick when you are competing against the best of the best? Hedge funds around the world are ready to spend millions of dollars to find the next big thing. How could you possibly compete? Google? Annual statements? Talking to your neighbour who’s best friend’s cousin heard about this new mining company? Seriously?

I’m not entirely against stock picking as you can imagine. I have done a lot of it on this blog, including what has turned out to be very successful trading on technology companies once again this year. That being said, most of my passive income/retirement funds are invested in vanilla index ETF’s. It just seems like a losing proposition doesn’t it? Or am I being too negative?

We all would like to think we’re good at sports, but I don’t think anyone in their right mind (except a few pros like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic) would think they can take on Roger/Tiger. So why do you think you could outperform the market when the best informed and most brilliant minds struggle so much to do so?

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3 Comments

  1. Comment by Nate — September 21, 2011 @ 10:26 pm

    I’m not sure this analogy holds entirely. Because in the market, I can lose to the Tiger Woods equivalent (say, Warren Buffet), but still make money — and I don’t mind that.

    An alternate way of looking at this is I still aspire to become a better golf player/investor. Through practise and study and hard work I believe I can become a better player/investor than the average joe.

    I’m not expecting to do better than Buffet, who has more information, more resources, more connections, more wisdom, more intelligence than me. But investing isn’t zero sum, I don’t lose because Buffet does well. In fact I can loosely (and with a lag) imitate exactly what he does in the market — which you can’t do with Tiger Woods.

  2. Comment by Intelligent Speculator — September 22, 2011 @ 4:29 am

    @Nate – I see what you mean and agree 100%. But the amount of money managed by these investors/institutions is so great that you would still need to do better than a major part of them to beat a simple passive strategy, that was what I was trying to say:)

  3. Pingback by Canadian Finance Carnival #55 — September 22, 2012 @ 6:07 pm

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