New Trade: Long LinkedIn (LNKD) & Short Salesforce (CRM)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 03.31.2014 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment  (0 Comments)

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As you have hopefully seen, I will be closing 1 trade this morning, on LNKD and P. As you can now guess, it’s not about closing a long on LinkedIn but rather about not wanting to keep that short Pandora short for too long.  To date, it’s been a great year of trading as the average long & short trade has returned around 8%.  The year is still young though so I won’t celebrate anytime soon. Truth be told, even year end isn’t really time to celebrate given the fact that it’s right back at square 0 afterwards:)

As will be the case all year, my long & short stock picks will be available to see in my live spreadsheet:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

You can see the numbers for both companies involved in today’s trade here:

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Dvd
WINWindstream Holdings Inc9.110.99250.776/26/2014
DODiamond Offshore Drilling Inc51.66.7888.697/31/2014
FTRFrontier Communications Corp66.67362.426/11/2014
CTLCenturyLink Inc34.846.2#VALUE!5/30/2014
ESVEnsco PLC50.755.9136.96/12/2014
RIGTransocean Ltd42.855.2363.795/28/2014
HCPHCP Inc42.25.17106.925/8/2014
TAT&T Inc35.765.1553.137/9/2014
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE32.745.13138.487/31/2014
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc63.5453110.775/8/2014
TETECO Energy Inc17.914.9196.665/9/2014
NENoble Corp plc30.944.8525.28/7/2014
MOAltria Group Inc39.894.8181.436/13/2014
RAIReynolds American Inc55.944.7978.666/11/2014
SOSouthern Co/The44.494.72107.367/31/2014
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc58.564.6461.885/28/2014
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc14.324.6187.677/30/2014
ETREntergy Corp73.134.5483.115/13/2014
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc49.114.4864.097/7/2014
VZVerizon Communications Inc47.394.4751.737/9/2014
EDConsolidated Edison Inc57.034.4267.895/12/2014
PMPhilip Morris International Inc85.344.4167.716/24/2014
PPLPPL Corp34.364.3479.796/10/2014
VTRVentas Inc66.984.33164.066/6/2014
FEFirstEnergy Corp33.424.31245.238/5/2014
DUKDuke Energy Corp73.524.2482.385/14/2014
LOLorillard Inc58.384.2169.925/28/2014
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp54.664.1560.317/31/2014
PCGPG&E Corp44.864.06100.616/30/2014
SCGSCANA Corp52.254.0260.36/6/2014
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc44.063.99135.515/14/2014
POMPepco Holdings Inc27.143.98245.456/6/2014
AEEAmeren Corp40.623.9475.816/9/2014
KIMKimco Realty Corp22.933.92174.486/30/2014
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc24.473.88114.155/14/2014
IRMIron Mountain Inc27.83.88213.916/18/2014
MATMattel Inc39.343.8655.25/21/2014
XELXcel Energy Inc31.243.8458.436/17/2014
SPLSStaples Inc12.553.8244.266/25/2014
MACMacerich Co/The65.013.81208.325/7/2014
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc53.363.7564.465/7/2014
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc39.623.7458.576/4/2014
KRFTKraft Foods Group Inc56.263.7345.056/26/2014
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The43.523.7222.626/4/2014
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc34.073.6784.827/10/2014
LEGLeggett & Platt Inc32.673.6787.716/18/2014
GASAGL Resources Inc53.53.6670.935/14/2014
CMSCMS Energy Corp29.783.6359.698/6/2014
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp49.023.5952.226/16/2014
COPConocoPhillips76.893.5941.665/15/2014
CVCCablevision Systems Corp173.53122.865/13/2014
OKEONEOK Inc63.733.51114.418/6/2014
IGTInternational Game Technology12.563.532.746/17/2014
PFEPfizer Inc29.963.4757.685/7/2014
GMEGameStop Corp38.153.4637.215/22/2014
GMGeneral Motors Co34.753.4506/6/2014
INTCIntel Corp26.173.4446.568/7/2014
EXCExelon Corp36.243.4273.555/13/2014
CVXChevron Corp125.363.4134.895/15/2014
STXSeagate Technology PLC50.513.4128.185/12/2014
WMWaste Management Inc44.113.4696.946/10/2014
SESpectra Energy Corp39.63.38795/7/2014
NUNortheast Utilities46.623.3759.455/28/2014
PAYXPaychex Inc41.493.3783.785/8/2014
DDominion Resources Inc/VA71.163.3772.885/28/2014
CACA Inc29.663.3748.486/9/2014
DTEDTE Energy Co77.933.3668.536/12/2014
AVBAvalonBay Communities Inc138.243.36932.946/30/2014
GRMNGarmin Ltd57.483.3460.316/13/2014
LLYEli Lilly & Co58.883.3344.895/13/2014
CSCOCisco Systems Inc22.963.3133.167/1/2014
GEGeneral Electric Co26.583.3153.116/26/2014
AIVApartment Investment & Management Co31.473.3335.825/14/2014
CAGConAgra Foods Inc30.353.2952.557/30/2014
EQREquity Residential60.793.29#VALUE!6/19/2014
ABBVAbbVie Inc51.363.2776.997/9/2014
PSAPublic Storage171.933.26105.026/11/2014
WECWisconsin Energy Corp48.023.2556.965/12/2014
CLXClorox Co/The87.313.2560.067/21/2014
LMTLockheed Martin Corp165.123.22525/29/2014
PLDPrologis Inc41.193.2288.826/9/2014
MCDMcDonald's Corp101.143.255.55/30/2014
FFord Motor Co15.743.18227/28/2014
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The81.73.1556.757/16/2014
SYYSysco Corp37.193.1265.997/2/2014
COHCoach Inc43.393.1133.736/4/2014
HASHasbro Inc55.523.172.887/29/2014
GISGeneral Mills Inc53.013.0946.797/7/2014
WUWestern Union Co/The16.273.0734.726/12/2014
PEPPepsiCo Inc85.913.0551.25/28/2014
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp110.233.0558.086/4/2014
IPInternational Paper Co45.883.0541.055/23/2014
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp94.73.0434.96/6/2014
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc46.763.04214.955/20/2014
DOWDow Chemical Co/The49.36334.446/26/2014
MRKMerck & Co Inc58.633116.536/12/2014
KOCoca-Cola Co/The40.762.9957.856/12/2014
SPGSimon Property Group Inc174.052.99112.095/14/2014
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV93.662.9929.38/14/2014
SYMCSymantec Corp20.12.9905/22/2014

Again, the trend looks terrible for LNKD and I generally stay away from companies that have such numbers. I am a believer in LNKD though and do think they will turn this around.

CRM Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) Chart

CRM Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

$LNKDLong LinkedIn (LNKD)

I’ve been a long time believer in LNKD but have never been able to make it a long term holding because the valuation never made sense. It has come down mostly on growth concerns but not enough for me to buy outright. I do like to buy it on a long & short basis though because I do think that LNKD has done a good job of diversifying its revenue sources and that some of the concerns have been overblown. It makes little sense for example to look at y/y traffic to its website (which has been declining) without considering use of its mobile apps in a world where everything is moving towards mobile. I do think that LNKD is a no-brainer when I compare it to a stock such as CRM which is trading at a comparable valuation.

LNKD2

Next earnings release: May 2nd 2014

$CRMShort Salesforce.com (CRM)

I’m certainly a believer in cloud-based software and I do think Salesforce has a terrific business but the results have lagged in recent years and it’s difficult for me to see how CRM would warrant such a valuation. When I look at diluted EPS (normalized) for the past few years, here is what I see:

2011: $0.12
2012: ($0.01)
2013: ($0.31)
2014: ($0.39)

Needless to say that things are not going in the right direction. They’ll eventually turn things around I believe but until there are clear signs that it will happen, I can’t imagine buying CRM at its 80 forward P/E.

CRM

Next earnings release: May 23rd 2014

Disclaimer: Long LNKD and no positions on Salesforce (CRM) but I will initiate the trade on the open today

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