New Trade: Long Facebook ($FB) & Short Yelp ($YELP)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 02.12.2016 (5:29 am) | Write a Comment  (0 Comments)

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You might have missed my post earlier this morning where I confirmed I’ll be closing 2 of the existing 4 trades. I did not expect to come out of this week with less trades than I had starting it but I certainly won’t be complaining! As is always the case you can see the existing live trades here:

Today’s trade is one between 2 web “communities”, one that .  Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg Growth
YELPYelp Inc15.23N/A19.35-46.6745.
FBFacebook Inc101.9178.9124.54-3.543.8215.540.986.451.72

And the chart that I always look at when doing these trade, the quarterly y/y sales growth… impressive to see YELP’s growth, but it’s obviously about how they’ll be able to keep this growth up:

YELP_FB_chart (2)



$FBLong Facebook (FB)

I am working on a longer article that will explain exactly why I think Facebook is actually just getting started and has a lot more upside from this point. I am very confident in that view and do think that despite Facebook’s incredible growth story (not only because FB is clearly my biggest single stock position), there is a lot more coming. Facebook’s plan (and more importantly its execution) is extremely impressive and I think it will continue to expand significantly in the coming years.



Next earnings: April 20th 2016

yelpShort Yelp (YELP)

I am sure many of you are Yelp users and I would also count myself as one of those users. That being said, it has been fairly clear that Yelp has had trouble adapting to a world where Google was no longer willing to send as much of its search traffic to Yelp. You can certainly debate the legality of what Google has done but the main fact is that Yelp is not in as good of a position and facing ever-increasing competition from both giants like Google but also smaller players. The main downside to holding a short YELP position is the always existing risk it will end up being bought by one of the big guys. I do think that is a lot less likely now but it certainly could happen.



Next earnings: April 27th

Disclaimer: This trade on FB-YELP will be done on today’s opening, I do have an existing long Facebook position
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