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If you have been anywhere near a computer, a tv or a newspaper (yes, they do still exist), you know that the situation in Europe is getting worse very fast. Today, Greek’s debt was downgraded to “junk” status with Portugal also having a downgrade of its own done by S&P. There have been many articles about the causes and consequences of such a collapse and I would personally recommend John Mauldin’s newsletter for the most “in depth” and interesting analysis. All of this is happening very fast and talk of a bubble even greater than the credit bubble that hit the world economy just a few months ago cannot be ignored. The fact is that Greece is far from being the only country with massive deficits and no easy way out of its huge debt problems. Will all of this result in the end of the Euro currency & Euro economic zone? It’s probably still very unlikely, but it does not look like the Black Swan it once was. It’s not that difficult to imagine a scenario where a few European countries get in major trouble and the Euro tumbles.
But there is also that possibility of a massive bail-out either by the richer nations such as Germany & France or by an international organization such as the IMF. So basically, volatility is back until this crisis gets resolved one way or another.
I thought I would like into a few of the ETF’s that would be good ways to play the crisis. Please note that since these strategies are short term ones, leveraged ETF’s could be very viable ways to play this.
Country or Region ETF’s:
It’s easy to imagine how having a short ETF on Greece could be the perfection investment. Unfortunately, no ETF on Greece exists, either long or short. So you have two options. Either using single country ETF’s on highly correlated countries. Spain and Italy are two that could follow Greece if things went wrong in Europe. You can also buy leveraged short ETF’s on Europe. Here are a few possibilities:
Ticker Name Price PE Ratio PE Next Year Return YTD Sales Growth Analyst rating Book Value Beta Revenue/Share Sales 5Y Avg Growth EPS 5Y Avg Growth Sales 5Y Avg Growth EPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPL Apple Inc 128.46 17.3 13.9 16.76 6.95 4.33 21.17 0.84 30.04 39.32 48.25 N/A N/A
NILE Blue Nile Inc 29.98 37.12 25.46 -16.5 5.22 3.91 1.16 0.81 38.99 9.13 3.89 0.65 N/A
Currency
The Euro has already lost much of its value but many analysts expect the Euro to fall much further still. You can buy EUO, which is a leveraged short bet on the Euro.
Ticker Name Shares Mar 18 Prices Mar 18 Values
OMC Omnicom Group Inc 34 $78.13 $2,656.42
MSFT Microsoft Corp 77 $42.50 $3,272.50
JCI Johnson Controls Inc 45 $50.28 $2,262.60
PEP PepsiCo Inc/NC 33 $94.64 $3,123.12
ETN Eaton Corp 36 $68.52 $2,466.72
DOV Dover Corp 29 $72.10 $2,090.90
ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc 31 $99.81 $3,094.11
XLNX Xilinx Inc 42 $41.60 $1,747.20
SJM JM Smucker Co/The 24 $112.61 $2,702.64
BLK BlackRock Inc 16 $377.76 $6,044.16
TROW T Rowe Price Group Inc 34 $83.88 $2,851.92
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp 27 $74.01 $1,998.27
CRC California Resources 10 $7.08 $70.80
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp 24 $86.07 $2,065.68
ADI Analog Devices Inc 49 $59.67 $2,923.83
HAS Hasbro Inc 34 $61.43 $2,088.62
MAT Mattel Inc 48 $23.96 $1,150.08
AFL Aflac 34 $63.62 $2,163.08
BAX Baxter International 29 $68.55 $1,987.95
IVZ Invesco Ltd 72 $41.78 $3,008.16
CVX Chevron 23 $106.70 $2,454.10
TXN Texas Instruments Inc 35 $58.30 $2,040.50
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets 62 $40.94 $2,538.28
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market 39 $83.35 $3,250.65
Cash $4,445.35
USDP $64,497.64
SPX 18.0277627 $3,861.45 $69,613.34
Volatility
If things turn sour in Europe, volatility across the world will increase so buying VXX would likely be a good way to play the crisis.
Ticker Name Price Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Ex-Dvd DSR score
NE Noble Corp plc 14.28 10.51 N/A 05/07/2015 24
MAT Mattel Inc 22.85 6.65 104.03 5/18/2015 29
CTL CenturyLink Inc 34.55 6.26 159.46 06/04/2015 8
FTR Frontier Communications Corp 7.05 5.96 308.73 06/09/2015 7
T AT&T Inc 32.65 5.76 154.71 07/08/2015 25
PM Philip Morris International Inc 75.33 5.31 81.61 6/23/2015 53
HCP HCP Inc 43.21 5.23 113.31 05/07/2015 63.5
IRM Iron Mountain Inc 36.48 5.21 321.43 6/24/2015 36
OKE ONEOK Inc 48.24 5.02 139.17 4/29/2015 34
CNP CenterPoint Energy Inc 20.41 4.85 66.78 5/15/2015 65
WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd 125.88 4.77 86.23 5/21/2015 55
SO Southern Co/The 44.28 4.74 95.04 4/30/2015 48.5
COP ConocoPhillips 62.26 4.69 61.24 5/20/2015 58
TE TECO Energy Inc 19.4 4.64 96.51 5/14/2015 2.5
WMB Williams Cos Inc/The 50.59 4.59 66.73 06/10/2015 43
VZ Verizon Communications Inc 48.63 4.52 89.18 07/08/2015 45
PPL PPL Corp 33.66 4.43 61.86 06/10/2015 62
PBCT People's United Financial Inc 15.2 4.34 77.86 4/29/2015 67.5
VTR Ventas Inc 73.02 4.33 191.41 06/08/2015 40
GRMN Garmin Ltd 47.52 4.29 101.8 6/13/2016 34.5
ETR Entergy Corp 77.49 4.28 63.35 05/12/2015 33.5
KMI Kinder Morgan Inc/DE 42.06 4.28 194.91 4/29/2015 42.5
HCN Health Care REIT Inc 77.36 4.26 221.55 05/07/2015 46
ED Consolidated Edison Inc 61 4.26 67.59 5/18/2015 37
MO Altria Group Inc 50.02 4.16 77.94 6/15/2015 57.5
STX Seagate Technology PLC 52.03 4.15 35.85 05/01/2015 55
DUK Duke Energy Corp 76.78 4.14 90.57 5/20/2015 45
FE FirstEnergy Corp 35.06 4.11 283.94 08/05/2015 4
GAS AGL Resources Inc 49.65 4.11 41.46 5/13/2015 77.5
SE Spectra Energy Corp 36.17 4.09 85.27 05/06/2015 60
RIG Transocean Ltd 14.67 4.09 #VALUE! 5/27/2015 17
CVX Chevron Corp 104.98 4.08 41.2 5/13/2015 76
PCL Plum Creek Timber Co Inc 43.45 4.05 145.79 5/20/2015 16
LO Lorillard Inc 65.35 4.04 74.89 06/03/2015 72
HP Helmerich & Payne Inc 68.07 4.04 37.52 5/13/2015 92.5
POM Pepco Holdings Inc 26.83 4.03 112.4 06/10/2015 -7.5
SCG SCANA Corp 54.99 3.96 55.39 06/11/2015 63
HST Host Hotels & Resorts Inc 20.18 3.96 77.4 6/29/2015 59
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp 73 3.94 #VALUE! 06/10/2015 45.5
RAI Reynolds American Inc 68.91 3.89 99.38 06/11/2015 47.5
AEE Ameren Corp 42.2 3.89 66.54 06/08/2015 28.5
GM General Motors Co 37.5 3.84 68.76 06/12/2015 53
GME GameStop Corp 37.96 3.79 37.85 5/29/2015 74.5
TEG Integrys Energy Group Inc 72.02 3.78 78.63 5/29/2015 1
AEP American Electric Power Co Inc 56.25 3.77 61.08 05/08/2015 56
PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corp 63.75 3.73 64.59 4/30/2015 49.5
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Inc 41.92 3.72 49.33 06/08/2015 45
F Ford Motor Co 16.14 3.72 61.25 4/28/2015 40
GE General Electric Co 24.81 3.71 58.32 6/18/2015 61.5
EXC Exelon Corp 33.61 3.69 66.52 5/15/2015 22
NOV National Oilwell Varco Inc 49.99 3.68 28.69 06/10/2015 89
XEL Xcel Energy Inc 34.81 3.68 59.56 6/16/2015 74
D Dominion Resources Inc/VA 70.87 3.65 106.75 5/27/2015 22
KIM Kimco Realty Corp 26.85 3.58 118.94 6/29/2015 36
WIN Windstream Holdings Inc 7.4 3.56 #VALUE! 6/26/2015 4
CAT Caterpillar Inc 80.03 3.5 45.1 4/16/2015 73
WY Weyerhaeuser Co 33.15 3.5 72.43 06/03/2015 60.5
DOW Dow Chemical Co/The 47.98 3.5 52.19 6/29/2015 75
MCD McDonald's Corp 97.44 3.49 67.6 5/30/2015 46.5
ABBV AbbVie Inc 58.54 3.49 157.34 4/13/2015 28.5
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp 53.28 3.45 54.86 6/15/2015 72
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corp 58.29 3.43 51.29 5/14/2015 28
PCG PG&E Corp 53.07 3.43 60.03 6/29/2015 46.5
DTE DTE Energy Co 80.69 3.42 52.49 6/18/2015 81
WEC Wisconsin Energy Corp 49.5 3.41 59.82 5/13/2015 69
CMS CMS Energy Corp 34.91 3.32 61.36 05/06/2015 58.5
EMR Emerson Electric Co 56.62 3.32 56.36 5/13/2015 70
ES Eversource Energy 50.52 3.31 60.59 5/29/2015 83
PLD Prologis Inc 43.56 3.31 107.4 06/08/2015 47
KMB Kimberly-Clark Corp 107.11 3.29 85.25 06/10/2015 20
CVC Cablevision Systems Corp 18.3 3.28 51.45 5/14/2015 41
COH Coach Inc 41.43 3.26 47.88 06/04/2015 57
KO Coca-Cola Co/The 40.55 3.26 76.08 6/17/2015 49.5
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp 85 3.25 35.57 05/07/2015 76
ETN Eaton Corp PLC 67.94 3.24 51.83 05/07/2015 89.5
PFE Pfizer Inc 34.79 3.22 73.63 05/06/2015 39.5
MRO Marathon Oil Corp 26.11 3.22 56.14 5/18/2015 41
PBI Pitney Bowes Inc 23.32 3.22 50.53 05/06/2015 -6
LYB LyondellBasell Industries NV 87.8 3.19 33.57 5/19/2015 56
SYY Sysco Corp 37.73 3.18 72.31 07/01/2015 38.5
DRI Darden Restaurants Inc 69.34 3.17 157.37 07/06/2015 36
NAVI Navient Corp 20.33 3.15 21.78 06/03/2015 N/A
PG Procter & Gamble Co/The 81.94 3.14 61 4/22/2015 41
MRK Merck & Co Inc 57.48 3.13 43.26 06/11/2015 56.5
NUE Nucor Corp 47.53 3.13 70 6/26/2015 55
GIS General Mills Inc 56.6 3.11 53.41 07/06/2015 56.5
MAC Macerich Co/The 84.33 3.08 23.97 05/06/2015 61
INTC Intel Corp 31.27 3.07 37.67 08/03/2015 80
CA CA Inc 32.61 3.07 50.39 5/26/2015 56
PAYX Paychex Inc 49.615 3.06 81.37 05/08/2015 49.5
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc 27.525 3.05 47.85 6/30/2015 80
MSFT Microsoft Corp 40.655 3.05 42 5/19/2015 84
BAX Baxter International Inc 68.5 3.04 57.1 06/03/2015 74
UPS United Parcel Service Inc 96.94 3.01 82.03 5/14/2015 56.5
MUR Murphy Oil Corp 46.6 3 23.06 5/15/2015 57
K Kellogg Co 65.95 2.97 107.63 5/29/2015 20
NEE NextEra Energy Inc 104.05 2.96 51.11 06/04/2015 72
LMT Lockheed Martin Corp 202.96 2.96 48.12 5/28/2015 59
SPLS Staples Inc 16.285 2.95 228.62 6/24/2015 10
MCHP Microchip Technology Inc 48.9 2.92 71.14 5/18/2015 54
Sovereign Debt
While Fixed income ETF’s have gained a lot of popularity and are becoming a lot more important, the variety available is still small and there are no ETF’s on Greek or even European sovereign debt. But selling PCY could be a good alternative as chances are that all sovereign debt would be hit in case of a European collapse, not just Europe’s:
Ticker Name Price Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Ex-Dvd
CTL CenturyLink Inc 26.28 8.22 159.46 42075
FTR Frontier Communications Corp 5.32 7.89 308.73 42259
OKE ONEOK Inc 35.19 6.88 139.17 42105
MAT Mattel Inc 22.6 6.73 104.03 11/23/2015
IRM Iron Mountain Inc 28.38 6.69 321.43 9/23/2015
KMI Kinder Morgan Inc/DE 30.1 6.51 194.91 10/30/2015
HCP HCP Inc 36.09 6.26 113.31 42135
COP ConocoPhillips 47.36 6.25 61.24 42226
VTR Ventas Inc 52.66 6 192.15 12/17/2015
T AT&T Inc 32.72 5.75 154.71 42195
GRMN Garmin Ltd 35.89 5.68 101.8 6/13/2016
CVX Chevron Corp 75.79 5.65 41.2 11/18/2015
CNP CenterPoint Energy Inc 17.69 5.6 66.78 11/16/2015
HP Helmerich & Payne Inc 49.35 5.57 37.52 42288
MRO Marathon Oil Corp 15.09 5.57 56.14 11/16/2015
WMB Williams Cos Inc/The 42.97 5.49 66.73 9/16/2015
SE Spectra Energy Corp 27.28 5.43 85.27 42349
ETR Entergy Corp 62.68 5.3 63.35 42288
HCN Health Care REIT Inc 62.81 5.25 221.55 42135
MUR Murphy Oil Corp 26.78 5.23 23.06 42288
NAVI Navient Corp 12.45 5.14 21.78 42259
PPL PPL Corp 29.67 5.09 61.86 42259
SO Southern Co/The 42.71 5.08 95.04 42135
O Realty Income Corp 45.08 5.07 213.23 9/29/2015
PM Philip Morris International Inc 79.47 5.03 81.61 9/28/2015
VZ Verizon Communications Inc 45.73 4.94 89.18 42195
DUK Duke Energy Corp 68.34 4.83 90.57 11/18/2015
GM General Motors Co 30.15 4.78 68.76 42320
NOV National Oilwell Varco Inc 38.64 4.76 28.69 42259
FE FirstEnergy Corp 30.59 4.71 283.94 42105
POM Pepco Holdings Inc 23.05 4.69 112.4 42320
PCL Plum Creek Timber Co Inc 37.49 4.69 145.79 11/18/2015
COH Coach Inc 29.44 4.59 92.57 42197
WY Weyerhaeuser Co 27.32 4.54 72.43 10/28/2015
JOY Joy Global Inc 17.69 4.52 22.64 42047
HST Host Hotels & Resorts Inc 17.74 4.51 77.4 9/28/2015
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp 66.9 4.48 #VALUE! 42259
STX Seagate Technology PLC 48.94 4.41 38.13 42074
F Ford Motor Co 13.71 4.38 61.25 10/28/2015
PBCT People's United Financial Inc 15.49 4.33 77.86 10/28/2015
MO Altria Group Inc 52.59 4.3 77.94 12/22/2015
PLD Prologis Inc 37.23 4.3 107.4 9/16/2015
CAT Caterpillar Inc 72.63 4.24 45.1 10/15/2015
AEE Ameren Corp 38.82 4.23 66.54 42197
SCG SCANA Corp 51.55 4.23 55.39 42289
RIG Transocean Ltd 14.24 4.21 #VALUE! 42319
KIM Kimco Realty Corp 23 4.17 118.94 42014
EXC Exelon Corp 29.7 4.17 66.52 11/17/2015
ED Consolidated Edison Inc 62.39 4.17 67.59 11/16/2015
CCI Crown Castle International Corp 78.63 4.17 179.32 9/16/2015
EMR Emerson Electric Co 46.04 4.08 56.36 11/18/2015
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corp 51.21 4.06 819.92 42349
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp 72.69 4.02 35.57 42258
PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corp 59.79 3.98 64.59 10/29/2015
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Inc 39.32 3.97 49.33 42197
ETN Eaton Corp PLC 55.72 3.95 51.83 42135
AEP American Electric Power Co Inc 53.78 3.94 61.08 42288
ESV Ensco PLC 15.48 3.88 #VALUE! 42289
PG Procter & Gamble Co/The 68.42 3.88 85.1 10/21/2015
XEL Xcel Energy Inc 33.16 3.86 59.56 9/15/2015
DTE DTE Energy Co 75.94 3.85 52.49 9/17/2015
IP International Paper Co 41.64 3.84 109.18 11/13/2015
DOW Dow Chemical Co/The 43.78 3.84 52.19 9/28/2015
WEC WEC Energy Group Inc 47.88 3.82 59.82 42349
D Dominion Resources Inc/VA 67.76 3.82 106.75 11/23/2015
PCG PG&E Corp 48.44 3.76 60.03 9/24/2015
NI NiSource Inc 16.61 3.73 61.16 10/28/2015
LYB LyondellBasell Industries NV 83.77 3.72 33.57 11/19/2015
GE General Electric Co 24.95 3.69 58.32 9/17/2015
PAYX Paychex Inc 45.71 3.68 81.76 42046
PBI Pitney Bowes Inc 20.43 3.67 50.53 11/18/2015
ES Eversource Energy 46.09 3.62 60.59 42259
VIAB Viacom Inc 44.28 3.61 22.76 12/15/2015
CA CA Inc 27.72 3.61 54.81 11/24/2015
AES AES Corp/VA 11.13 3.59 18.05 10/29/2015
KSS Kohl's Corp 50.74 3.55 36.56 42136
CMS CMS Energy Corp 32.67 3.55 61.36 42105
NUE Nucor Corp 42.12 3.54 70 9/28/2015
IBM International Business Machines Corp 147.37 3.53 27.3 42105
QCOM QUALCOMM Inc 54.66 3.51 34.88 11/25/2015
MAC Macerich Co/The 74.2 3.5 23.97 42258
MCD McDonald's Corp 97.41 3.49 67.6 11/27/2015
KO Coca-Cola Co/The 38.13 3.46 76.08 11/25/2015
MRK Merck & Co Inc 52.09 3.46 43.26 42320
SPLS Staples Inc 13.86 3.46 228.62 9/23/2015
SPG Simon Property Group Inc 179.14 3.46 116.31 11/16/2015
ABBV AbbVie Inc 59.35 3.44 157.34 10/13/2015
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp 53.43 3.44 54.86 9/14/2015
RAI Reynolds American Inc 42.19 3.41 99.38 42289
PFE Pfizer Inc 32.97 3.4 73.64 42105
WU Western Union Co/The 18.31 3.39 31.11 9/14/2015
KMB Kimberly-Clark Corp 104.05 3.38 85.25 42259
GME GameStop Corp 42.78 3.37 37.85 11/27/2015
TE TECO Energy Inc 26.7 3.37 96.51 42288
PSA Public Storage 202.19 3.36 106.21 42289
GAS AGL Resources Inc 61 3.34 41.46 11/18/2015
AIV Apartment Investment & Management Co 36.14 3.32 50.45 11/18/2015
IVZ Invesco Ltd 32.88 3.28 42.76 11/18/2015
INTC Intel Corp 29.47 3.26 37.67 42492
MCHP Microchip Technology Inc 43.89 3.26 77.63 11/18/2015
Sectors
Some areas, such as financials in Europe, would suffer greatly, here are some options:
Ticker Name Price PE Ratio PE Next Year Return YTD Sales Growth Analyst rating Book Value Beta Earnings Revenue/Share Sales 5Y Avg Growth EPS 5Y Avg Growth Sales 5Y Avg Growth EPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPL Apple Inc 113.45 13.15 11.65 4.46 6.95 4.41 22.03 1.06 10/20/2015 30.04 28.78 36.91 N/A N/A
FIT Fitbit Inc 40.72 N/A 41.76 N/A 174.98 4.06 3.18 N/A 11/05/2015 6.21 N/A N/A 11.55 13.14
TRIP TripAdvisor Inc 68.64 47.09 26.13 -7.98 31.9 3.41 8.61 1.63 10/22/2015 8.71 26.58 N/A -0.92 N/A
TWTR Twitter Inc 27.92 N/A 46.14 -22.69 111.01 3.58 6.27 0.79 10/27/2015 2.32 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TZOO Travelzoo Inc 9.2 63.02 34.79 -27.5 -10.21 3.5 2.86 0.54 10/16/2015 9.62 5.01 10.21
YHOO Yahoo! Inc 30.74 42.61 46.49 -39.34 -1.33 4.27 35.68 1.17 10/21/2015 4.68 -4.15 N/A N/A N/A
These are the main ways I could think of, but I would love to hear other ideas on how to profit from the Greece problems with ETF’s.
