How to play the Greece collapse?

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 04.28.2010 (5:53 am) | Write a Comment  (0 Comments)

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If you have been anywhere near a computer, a tv or a newspaper (yes, they do still exist), you know that the situation in Europe is getting worse very fast. Today, Greek’s debt was downgraded to “junk” status with Portugal also having a downgrade of its own done by S&P. There have been many articles about the causes and consequences of such a collapse and I would personally recommend John Mauldin’s newsletter for the most “in depth” and interesting analysis. All of this is happening very fast and talk of a bubble even greater than the credit bubble that hit the world economy just a few months ago cannot be ignored. The fact is that Greece is far from being the only country with massive deficits and no easy way out of its huge debt problems. Will all of this result in the end of the Euro currency & Euro economic zone? It’s probably still very unlikely, but it does not look like the Black Swan it once was. It’s not that difficult to imagine a scenario where a few European countries get in major trouble and the Euro tumbles.

But there is also that possibility of a massive bail-out either by the richer nations such as Germany & France or by an international organization such as the IMF. So basically, volatility is back until this crisis gets resolved one way or another.

I thought I would like into a few of the ETF’s that would be good ways to play the crisis. Please note that since these strategies are short term ones, leveraged ETF’s could be very viable ways to play this.

Country or Region ETF’s:

It’s easy to imagine how having a short ETF on Greece could be the perfection investment. Unfortunately, no ETF on Greece exists, either long or short. So you have two options. Either using single country ETF’s on highly correlated countries. Spain and Italy are two that could follow Greece if things went wrong in Europe. You can also buy leveraged short ETF’s on Europe. Here are a few possibilities:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg GrowthSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPLApple Inc128.4617.313.916.766.954.3321.170.8430.0439.3248.25N/AN/A
NILEBlue Nile Inc29.9837.1225.46-16.55.223.911.160.8138.999.133.890.65N/A

Currency

The Euro has already lost much of its value but many analysts expect the Euro to fall much further still. You can buy EUO, which is a leveraged short bet on the Euro.

TickerNameSharesMar 18 PricesMar 18 Values
OMCOmnicom Group Inc34$78.13$2,656.42
MSFTMicrosoft Corp77$42.50$3,272.50
JCIJohnson Controls Inc45$50.28$2,262.60
PEPPepsiCo Inc/NC33$94.64$3,123.12
ETNEaton Corp36$68.52$2,466.72
DOVDover Corp29$72.10$2,090.90
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc31$99.81$3,094.11
XLNXXilinx Inc42$41.60$1,747.20
SJMJM Smucker Co/The24$112.61$2,702.64
BLKBlackRock Inc16$377.76$6,044.16
TROWT Rowe Price Group Inc34$83.88$2,851.92
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp27$74.01$1,998.27
CRCCalifornia Resources10$7.08$70.80
XOMExxon Mobil Corp24$86.07$2,065.68
ADIAnalog Devices Inc49$59.67$2,923.83
HASHasbro Inc34$61.43$2,088.62
MATMattel Inc48$23.96$1,150.08
AFLAflac34$63.62$2,163.08
BAXBaxter International29$68.55$1,987.95
IVZInvesco Ltd72$41.78$3,008.16
CVXChevron23$106.70$2,454.10
TXNTexas Instruments Inc35$58.30$2,040.50
VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets62$40.94$2,538.28
BNDVanguard Total Bond Market39$83.35$3,250.65
Cash$4,445.35
USDP$64,497.64
SPX18.0277627$3,861.45$69,613.34

Volatility

If things turn sour in Europe, volatility across the world will increase so buying VXX would likely be a good way to play the crisis.

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-DvdDSR score
NENoble Corp plc14.2810.51N/A05/07/201524
MATMattel Inc22.856.65104.035/18/201529
CTLCenturyLink Inc34.556.26159.4606/04/20158
FTRFrontier Communications Corp7.055.96308.7306/09/20157
TAT&T Inc32.655.76154.7107/08/201525
PMPhilip Morris International Inc75.335.3181.616/23/201553
HCPHCP Inc43.215.23113.3105/07/201563.5
IRMIron Mountain Inc36.485.21321.436/24/201536
OKEONEOK Inc48.245.02139.174/29/201534
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc20.414.8566.785/15/201565
WYNNWynn Resorts Ltd125.884.7786.235/21/201555
SOSouthern Co/The44.284.7495.044/30/201548.5
COPConocoPhillips62.264.6961.245/20/201558
TETECO Energy Inc19.44.6496.515/14/20152.5
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The50.594.5966.7306/10/201543
VZVerizon Communications Inc48.634.5289.1807/08/201545
PPLPPL Corp33.664.4361.8606/10/201562
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc15.24.3477.864/29/201567.5
VTRVentas Inc73.024.33191.4106/08/201540
GRMNGarmin Ltd47.524.29101.86/13/201634.5
ETREntergy Corp77.494.2863.3505/12/201533.5
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE42.064.28194.914/29/201542.5
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc77.364.26221.5505/07/201546
EDConsolidated Edison Inc614.2667.595/18/201537
MOAltria Group Inc50.024.1677.946/15/201557.5
STXSeagate Technology PLC52.034.1535.8505/01/201555
DUKDuke Energy Corp76.784.1490.575/20/201545
FEFirstEnergy Corp35.064.11283.9408/05/20154
GASAGL Resources Inc49.654.1141.465/13/201577.5
SESpectra Energy Corp36.174.0985.2705/06/201560
RIGTransocean Ltd14.674.09#VALUE!5/27/201517
CVXChevron Corp104.984.0841.25/13/201576
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc43.454.05145.795/20/201516
LOLorillard Inc65.354.0474.8906/03/201572
HPHelmerich & Payne Inc68.074.0437.525/13/201592.5
POMPepco Holdings Inc26.834.03112.406/10/2015-7.5
SCGSCANA Corp54.993.9655.3906/11/201563
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts Inc20.183.9677.46/29/201559
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp733.94#VALUE!06/10/201545.5
RAIReynolds American Inc68.913.8999.3806/11/201547.5
AEEAmeren Corp42.23.8966.5406/08/201528.5
GMGeneral Motors Co37.53.8468.7606/12/201553
GMEGameStop Corp37.963.7937.855/29/201574.5
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc72.023.7878.635/29/20151
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc56.253.7761.0805/08/201556
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp63.753.7364.594/30/201549.5
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc41.923.7249.3306/08/201545
FFord Motor Co16.143.7261.254/28/201540
GEGeneral Electric Co24.813.7158.326/18/201561.5
EXCExelon Corp33.613.6966.525/15/201522
NOVNational Oilwell Varco Inc49.993.6828.6906/10/201589
XELXcel Energy Inc34.813.6859.566/16/201574
DDominion Resources Inc/VA70.873.65106.755/27/201522
KIMKimco Realty Corp26.853.58118.946/29/201536
WINWindstream Holdings Inc7.43.56#VALUE!6/26/20154
CATCaterpillar Inc80.033.545.14/16/201573
WYWeyerhaeuser Co33.153.572.4306/03/201560.5
DOWDow Chemical Co/The47.983.552.196/29/201575
MCDMcDonald's Corp97.443.4967.65/30/201546.5
ABBVAbbVie Inc58.543.49157.344/13/201528.5
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp53.283.4554.866/15/201572
KLACKLA-Tencor Corp58.293.4351.295/14/201528
PCGPG&E Corp53.073.4360.036/29/201546.5
DTEDTE Energy Co80.693.4252.496/18/201581
WECWisconsin Energy Corp49.53.4159.825/13/201569
CMSCMS Energy Corp34.913.3261.3605/06/201558.5
EMREmerson Electric Co56.623.3256.365/13/201570
ESEversource Energy50.523.3160.595/29/201583
PLDPrologis Inc43.563.31107.406/08/201547
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp107.113.2985.2506/10/201520
CVCCablevision Systems Corp18.33.2851.455/14/201541
COHCoach Inc41.433.2647.8806/04/201557
KOCoca-Cola Co/The40.553.2676.086/17/201549.5
XOMExxon Mobil Corp853.2535.5705/07/201576
ETNEaton Corp PLC67.943.2451.8305/07/201589.5
PFEPfizer Inc34.793.2273.6305/06/201539.5
MROMarathon Oil Corp26.113.2256.145/18/201541
PBIPitney Bowes Inc23.323.2250.5305/06/2015-6
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV87.83.1933.575/19/201556
SYYSysco Corp37.733.1872.3107/01/201538.5
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc69.343.17157.3707/06/201536
NAVINavient Corp20.333.1521.7806/03/2015N/A
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The81.943.14614/22/201541
MRKMerck & Co Inc57.483.1343.2606/11/201556.5
NUENucor Corp47.533.13706/26/201555
GISGeneral Mills Inc56.63.1153.4107/06/201556.5
MACMacerich Co/The84.333.0823.9705/06/201561
INTCIntel Corp31.273.0737.6708/03/201580
CACA Inc32.613.0750.395/26/201556
PAYXPaychex Inc49.6153.0681.3705/08/201549.5
CSCOCisco Systems Inc27.5253.0547.856/30/201580
MSFTMicrosoft Corp40.6553.05425/19/201584
BAXBaxter International Inc68.53.0457.106/03/201574
UPSUnited Parcel Service Inc96.943.0182.035/14/201556.5
MURMurphy Oil Corp46.6323.065/15/201557
KKellogg Co65.952.97107.635/29/201520
NEENextEra Energy Inc104.052.9651.1106/04/201572
LMTLockheed Martin Corp202.962.9648.125/28/201559
SPLSStaples Inc16.2852.95228.626/24/201510
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc48.92.9271.145/18/201554

Sovereign Debt

While Fixed income ETF’s have gained a lot of popularity and are becoming a lot more important, the variety available is still small and there are no ETF’s on Greek or even European sovereign debt. But selling PCY could be a good alternative as chances are that all sovereign debt would be hit in case of a European collapse, not just Europe’s:

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Dvd
CTLCenturyLink Inc26.288.22159.4642075
FTRFrontier Communications Corp5.327.89308.7342259
OKEONEOK Inc35.196.88139.1742105
MATMattel Inc22.66.73104.0311/23/2015
IRMIron Mountain Inc28.386.69321.439/23/2015
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE30.16.51194.9110/30/2015
HCPHCP Inc36.096.26113.3142135
COPConocoPhillips47.366.2561.2442226
VTRVentas Inc52.666192.1512/17/2015
TAT&T Inc32.725.75154.7142195
GRMNGarmin Ltd35.895.68101.86/13/2016
CVXChevron Corp75.795.6541.211/18/2015
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc17.695.666.7811/16/2015
HPHelmerich & Payne Inc49.355.5737.5242288
MROMarathon Oil Corp15.095.5756.1411/16/2015
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The42.975.4966.739/16/2015
SESpectra Energy Corp27.285.4385.2742349
ETREntergy Corp62.685.363.3542288
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc62.815.25221.5542135
MURMurphy Oil Corp26.785.2323.0642288
NAVINavient Corp12.455.1421.7842259
PPLPPL Corp29.675.0961.8642259
SOSouthern Co/The42.715.0895.0442135
ORealty Income Corp45.085.07213.239/29/2015
PMPhilip Morris International Inc79.475.0381.619/28/2015
VZVerizon Communications Inc45.734.9489.1842195
DUKDuke Energy Corp68.344.8390.5711/18/2015
GMGeneral Motors Co30.154.7868.7642320
NOVNational Oilwell Varco Inc38.644.7628.6942259
FEFirstEnergy Corp30.594.71283.9442105
POMPepco Holdings Inc23.054.69112.442320
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc37.494.69145.7911/18/2015
COHCoach Inc29.444.5992.5742197
WYWeyerhaeuser Co27.324.5472.4310/28/2015
JOYJoy Global Inc17.694.5222.6442047
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts Inc17.744.5177.49/28/2015
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp66.94.48#VALUE!42259
STXSeagate Technology PLC48.944.4138.1342074
FFord Motor Co13.714.3861.2510/28/2015
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc15.494.3377.8610/28/2015
MOAltria Group Inc52.594.377.9412/22/2015
PLDPrologis Inc37.234.3107.49/16/2015
CATCaterpillar Inc72.634.2445.110/15/2015
AEEAmeren Corp38.824.2366.5442197
SCGSCANA Corp51.554.2355.3942289
RIGTransocean Ltd14.244.21#VALUE!42319
KIMKimco Realty Corp234.17118.9442014
EXCExelon Corp29.74.1766.5211/17/2015
EDConsolidated Edison Inc62.394.1767.5911/16/2015
CCICrown Castle International Corp78.634.17179.329/16/2015
EMREmerson Electric Co46.044.0856.3611/18/2015
KLACKLA-Tencor Corp51.214.06819.9242349
XOMExxon Mobil Corp72.694.0235.5742258
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp59.793.9864.5910/29/2015
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc39.323.9749.3342197
ETNEaton Corp PLC55.723.9551.8342135
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc53.783.9461.0842288
ESVEnsco PLC15.483.88#VALUE!42289
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The68.423.8885.110/21/2015
XELXcel Energy Inc33.163.8659.569/15/2015
DTEDTE Energy Co75.943.8552.499/17/2015
IPInternational Paper Co41.643.84109.1811/13/2015
DOWDow Chemical Co/The43.783.8452.199/28/2015
WECWEC Energy Group Inc47.883.8259.8242349
DDominion Resources Inc/VA67.763.82106.7511/23/2015
PCGPG&E Corp48.443.7660.039/24/2015
NINiSource Inc16.613.7361.1610/28/2015
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV83.773.7233.5711/19/2015
GEGeneral Electric Co24.953.6958.329/17/2015
PAYXPaychex Inc45.713.6881.7642046
PBIPitney Bowes Inc20.433.6750.5311/18/2015
ESEversource Energy46.093.6260.5942259
VIABViacom Inc44.283.6122.7612/15/2015
CACA Inc27.723.6154.8111/24/2015
AESAES Corp/VA11.133.5918.0510/29/2015
KSSKohl's Corp50.743.5536.5642136
CMSCMS Energy Corp32.673.5561.3642105
NUENucor Corp42.123.54709/28/2015
IBMInternational Business Machines Corp147.373.5327.342105
QCOMQUALCOMM Inc54.663.5134.8811/25/2015
MACMacerich Co/The74.23.523.9742258
MCDMcDonald's Corp97.413.4967.611/27/2015
KOCoca-Cola Co/The38.133.4676.0811/25/2015
MRKMerck & Co Inc52.093.4643.2642320
SPLSStaples Inc13.863.46228.629/23/2015
SPGSimon Property Group Inc179.143.46116.3111/16/2015
ABBVAbbVie Inc59.353.44157.3410/13/2015
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp53.433.4454.869/14/2015
RAIReynolds American Inc42.193.4199.3842289
PFEPfizer Inc32.973.473.6442105
WUWestern Union Co/The18.313.3931.119/14/2015
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp104.053.3885.2542259
GMEGameStop Corp42.783.3737.8511/27/2015
TETECO Energy Inc26.73.3796.5142288
PSAPublic Storage202.193.36106.2142289
GASAGL Resources Inc613.3441.4611/18/2015
AIVApartment Investment & Management Co36.143.3250.4511/18/2015
IVZInvesco Ltd32.883.2842.7611/18/2015
INTCIntel Corp29.473.2637.6742492
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc43.893.2677.6311/18/2015

Sectors

Some areas, such as financials in Europe, would suffer greatly, here are some options:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg GrowthSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPLApple Inc113.4513.1511.654.466.954.4122.031.0610/20/201530.0428.7836.91N/AN/A
FITFitbit Inc40.72N/A41.76N/A174.984.063.18N/A11/05/20156.21N/AN/A11.5513.14
TRIPTripAdvisor Inc68.6447.0926.13-7.9831.93.418.611.6310/22/20158.7126.58N/A-0.92N/A
TWTRTwitter Inc27.92N/A46.14-22.69111.013.586.270.7910/27/20152.32N/AN/AN/AN/A
TZOOTravelzoo Inc9.263.0234.79-27.5-10.213.52.860.5410/16/20159.625.0110.21
YHOOYahoo! Inc30.7442.6146.49-39.34-1.334.2735.681.1710/21/20154.68-4.15N/AN/AN/A

These are the main ways I could think of, but I would love to hear other ideas on how to profit from the Greece problems with ETF’s.

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