A look at current positions

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 11.30.2009 (5:00 am) | Write a Comment  (0 Comments)

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indexFor the past few weeks, I’ve been opening new trades each Monday but this time I will actually take a break. None of the 5 current trades breached the +20% or -20% so I still have the same positions as last Monday but they actually performed well last week.

As the year comes to an end with only one month left,I am very satisfied with my performance so far. An average of +3,34% per trade is well above my objective, especially when I consider that trades are open less than 2 months on average. So depending on how you manage your portfolio (number of trades and how much you put into each trade), this can translate into a strong performance. Generally, I would not put more than 20% of the portfolio (speculative portfolio obviously) into a trade. So that would come up to a return over 20% in 2009.

Anyway, without further wait, here are some comments on the current trades:

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aapl

Oct 5 – AAPL/INTC +12,20% – still live

I did not expect this trade to develop very fast as these are two very high volume trades that are not as volatile as many others that we trade. But the has been consistent and is positive territory. Apple seems to have delayed its much anticipated notebook until 2010 but its very strong performance with its Iphone business has kept numbers strong.

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googOct 9 – GOOG/IACI +13,60% – still live

This was a play on internet advertising basically assuming that Google would come out a “bigger winner” in these times than the average internet company that depended on advertising. It’s no secret that I am not generally a fan of IAC Interactive but this was more of a play on Google than the opposite.

Google continues to impress and innovate. News that it will soon release a phone has been greeted with skepticism but so far Google has not failed often so I would tend to give them the benefit of the doubt.

This is probably the trade I’m most happy with right now, even more so when I heard Barry Diller talk about getting rid of “Ask.com”, once the most valuable property owned by IAC but now like many others, a property that has lost its audience because of underinvestment by its owner.

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bidu1Nov 6 – BIDU/AMZN – +7,83% – still live

No matter how overvalued I felt that Amazon was at the time I initiated this trade, I will always feel nervous being short a stock like Amazon, which fundamentally I still like and which I will surely buy at some point in the future.

But the fact was that Amazon had been overbought and Baidu had been oversold.. that simple, and so this trade stands!

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pcln1Nov 13 – PCLN/TZOO – +12,60% – still live

This was a play on how analysts perceive these 2 stocks and how growth in Travelzoo seems to only happen with high advertising costs, not a sign of a promising business.

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nile1Nov 20 – NILE/YHOO – +1,77% – still live

Not much new to report as this trade is one week old and I am just happy to see it doing well already. This is a play on Yahoo having a very limited upsize while Blue Nile should have a good holiday season and show good profits.

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