2010 Stock Picks: Q1 results

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 03.31.2010 (6:03 pm) | Write a Comment  (10 Comments)

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After ending the 2009 competition on a high note and winning among peer bloggers, I obviously had very high expectations for this year’s picks and followed a similar strategy, picking two more general economic picks; UNG and JJN, two commodity picks as well as two tech stocks; Google (GOOG) and Sohu (SOHU).

Unfortunately, as you can see in these results, things have not been as good so far this year. Thankfully things have gone better in my picks done on this website! Of course, it is still very early and I still think I have a shot at winning, but to be honest, my pick on Natural Gas has turned into a disaster! So without further wait, here are my 4 picks:

JJN: +35.69% Great performance as nickel has continued to soar, I’d say things will ease down but I’m comfortable with the pick.

UNG: -31.27% – You know things are bad when companies such as Shell are working on ways to convert natural gas into oil. It means that Natural Gas is dirt cheap. And that is exactly what has been happening. Again, I can’t see prices going much lower so not too worried about the downside risk but I would not say I’m optimistic either a big rebound.

GOOG: -7.76% – Things have been hectic for Google so far this year as has been well discussed all over this blog, especially recently with the China debacle. But I remain optimistic and now that those things have more or less cleared up, I’m very comfortable with my pick, more on that next week but let’s just say I’m a strong Google (GOOG) believer right now.

SOHU: -1.75% – Sohu has struggled like almost all Chinese stocks (major exception would be Baidu (BIDU)), I do still think the stock looks attractive on valuation as its sales growth (20%) is actually higher than its P/E ratio (15).

Think things will turn around? In any case, here are the full results so far (links are either to the results post or to the picks post depending if the results were published yet on each blog, but results will be updated) :

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-DvdIndustry
RIGTransocean Ltd18.416.363.792/18/2015Oil&Gas Drilling
WINWindstream Holdings Inc8.5411.71250.773/27/2015Telephone-Integrated
DODiamond Offshore Drilling Inc33.9110.3288.6902/12/2015Oil&Gas Drilling
ESVEnsco PLC29.9410.0236.903/12/2015Oil&Gas Drilling
NENoble Corp plc17.978.3525.202/06/2015Oil&Gas Drilling
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc18.986.5984.824/16/2015Metal-Copper
FTRFrontier Communications Corp7.345.72362.4203/09/2015Telephone-Integrated
TAT&T Inc34.345.48154.7104/01/2015Telephone-Integrated
CTLCenturyLink Inc39.595.46#VALUE!2/27/2015Telephone-Integrated
MATMattel Inc28.0655.42103.282/17/2015Toys
OKEONEOK Inc46.785.17117.54/29/2015Pipelines
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The46.084.95222.6203/11/2015Pipelines
PMPhilip Morris International Inc82.244.8668.073/24/2015Tobacco
HCPHCP Inc46.814.83106.9202/05/2015REITS-Health Care
IRMIron Mountain Inc40.24.73213.913/18/2015REITS-Storage
VZVerizon Communications Inc47.834.689.1804/08/2015Telephone-Integrated
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc14.594.5219.264/29/2015S&L/Thrifts-Eastern US
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE41.484.34192.824/29/2015Pipelines
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc22.844.33114.1502/11/2015Gas-Distribution
COPConocoPhillips67.744.3161.2402/12/2015Oil Comp-Explor&Prodtn
SESpectra Energy Corp34.944.2480.5602/11/2015Pipelines
SOSouthern Co/The50.84.14107.3602/12/2015Electric-Integrated
PPLPPL Corp36.384.179.7903/09/2015Electric-Integrated
TETECO Energy Inc21.684.0696.662/13/2015Electric-Integrated
HPHelmerich & Payne Inc67.854.0537.5202/11/2015Oil&Gas Drilling
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc81.764.043110.7702/06/2015REITS-Health Care
VTRVentas Inc79.733.96164.0603/06/2015REITS-Health Care
POMPepco Holdings Inc27.433.94245.4503/06/2015Electric-Integrated
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc44.83.93145.3202/11/2015REITS-Diversified
CVXChevron Corp109.533.9141.2102/12/2015Oil Comp-Integrated
WYNNWynn Resorts Ltd155.83.8596.5902/11/2015Casino Hotels
FFord Motor Co15.653.8461.374/28/2015Auto-Cars/Light Trucks
RAIReynolds American Inc69.913.8379.103/06/2015Tobacco
MOAltria Group Inc54.263.8376.923/13/2015Tobacco
EDConsolidated Edison Inc68.993.7767.892/13/2015Electric-Integrated
CCICrown Castle International Corp87.243.76179.323/17/2015REITS-Diversified
GEGeneral Electric Co24.473.7658.262/19/2015Diversified Manufact Op
ETREntergy Corp89.423.7183.1102/10/2015Electric-Integrated
LOLorillard Inc66.463.769.922/25/2015Tobacco
DUKDuke Energy Corp86.783.6782.3802/11/2015Electric-Integrated
STXSeagate Technology PLC59.253.6535.8502/06/2015Computers-Memory Devices
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc60.763.62157.3704/10/2015Retail-Restaurants
MCDMcDonald's Corp93.923.6267.62/26/2015Retail-Restaurants
AEEAmeren Corp45.433.6175.8103/09/2015Electric-Integrated
DOWDow Chemical Co/The46.893.5852.23/30/2015Chemicals-Diversified
GRMNGarmin Ltd53.653.5857.4403/12/2015Electronic Compo-Misc
GASAGL Resources Inc57.193.5770.9302/11/2015Gas-Distribution
FEFirstEnergy Corp40.443.56245.2302/04/2015Electric-Integrated
GMGeneral Motors Co33.983.53003/09/2015Auto-Cars/Light Trucks
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp52.13.5352.223/16/2015Multi-line Insurance
GMEGameStop Corp37.53.5237.2103/05/2015Retail-Computer Equip
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp82.153.5134.8403/09/2015Oil Comp-Explor&Prodtn
PFEPfizer Inc32.023.574.0202/04/2015Medical-Drugs
COHCoach Inc38.693.4947.8803/06/2015Retail-Apparel/Shoe
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc43.23.4358.5703/06/2015Electric-Integrated
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts Inc23.313.43169.523/27/2015REITS-Hotels
KIMKimco Realty Corp28.063.42174.483/30/2015REITS-Shopping Centers
NOVNational Oilwell Varco Inc54.083.428.6503/11/2015Oil Field Mach&Equip
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp70.463.3860.314/30/2015Electric-Integrated
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc62.763.3860.7502/06/2015Electric-Integrated
EXCExelon Corp36.933.3673.5502/11/2015Electric-Integrated
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc81.273.3561.842/27/2015Electric-Integrated
CATCaterpillar Inc83.923.3345.14/16/2015Machinery-Constr&Mining
SCGSCANA Corp63.763.2960.303/11/2015Electric-Integrated
KRFTKraft Foods Group Inc66.973.2945.053/30/2015Food-Misc/Diversified
WYWeyerhaeuser Co35.573.2672.432/25/2015REITS-Diversified
PBIPitney Bowes Inc23.013.2663.7402/11/2015Office Automation&Equip
NUENucor Corp45.733.2666.413/27/2015Steel-Producers
PAYXPaychex Inc46.913.2481.3705/08/2015Data Processing/Mgmt
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV86.93.2233.6703/05/2015Chemicals-Diversified
CACA Inc31.183.2150.392/17/2015Enterprise Software/Serv
AESAES Corp/VA12.483.2143.114/29/2015Electric-Generation
XELXcel Energy Inc37.643.1959.23/17/2015Electric-Integrated
ABBVAbbVie Inc61.653.18150.6504/10/2015Medical-Drugs
EMREmerson Electric Co59.443.1656.3602/11/2015Electric Products-Misc
KLACKLA-Tencor Corp63.473.1551.292/19/2015Semiconductor Equipment
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc45.5853.1371.142/19/2015Electronic Compo-Semicon
LMTLockheed Martin Corp1923.1348.122/26/2015Aerospace/Defense
PCGPG&E Corp58.853.09100.613/30/2015Electric-Integrated
GISGeneral Mills Inc53.263.0853.4104/10/2015Food-Misc/Diversified
DDominion Resources Inc/VA78.583.0772.882/25/2015Electric-Integrated
DTEDTE Energy Co90.033.0768.533/19/2015Electric-Integrated
CMSCMS Energy Corp37.843.0761.3602/04/2015Electric-Integrated
CVCCablevision Systems Corp19.63.06122.8603/12/2015Cable/Satellite TV
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp110.173.0685.3503/04/2015Consumer Products-Misc
HASHasbro Inc56.1453.0672.8805/01/2015Toys
SYYSysco Corp39.543.0472.3104/01/2015Food-Wholesale/Distrib
NAVINavient Corp21.083.04#VALUE!03/04/2015Finance-Consumer Loans
WECWisconsin Energy Corp55.963.0256.9602/11/2015Electric-Integrated
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The85.953.01614/22/2015Cosmetics&Toiletries
XOMExxon Mobil Corp92.252.9935.5702/06/2015Oil Comp-Integrated
IPInternational Paper Co53.732.98110.2802/11/2015Paper&Related Products
MSFTMicrosoft Corp41.62.98422/17/2015Applications Software
NUNortheast Utilities56.042.9858.872/26/2015Electric-Integrated
MRKMerck & Co Inc61.022.97116.5303/12/2015Medical-Drugs
BAXBaxter International Inc70.452.9557.103/04/2015Medical Products
XLNXXilinx Inc39.3052.9542.4105/11/2015Electronic Compo-Semicon
KOCoca-Cola Co/The41.632.9457.8503/11/2015Beverages-Non-alcoholic
KKellogg Co66.652.9436.162/27/2015Food-Misc/Diversified
VLOValero Energy Corp54.382.9414.9502/09/2015Oil Refining&Marketing

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  1. […] 8. Intelligent Speculator: -1.27% […]

  2. Comment by Daddy Paul — March 31, 2010 @ 8:00 pm

    I have to give you credit a lot of people will not talk about their failures.

  3. Pingback by 4 Stocks To Buy In 2010 Q1 Results - TWI — March 31, 2010 @ 8:14 pm

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  5. Comment by Vito — April 1, 2010 @ 6:07 am

    I am pretty sure things will improve for GOOG and UNG. I honestly would exit from positions on JJN and SOHU.

    JJN seems at a correct valuation now (well done to spot it while undervalued), so it is unlikely that will keep the momentum, or, as for the gas, this may be another bubble just waiting to bust. Just cash it!

    About SOHU,I just don’t see any Chinese stock to be able to deliver much in the medium term, although I think the consideration on P/E makes SOHU a valid one across the bunch.

  6. Pingback by 2010 Stock Picks Contest – Q1 Review — April 1, 2010 @ 6:37 am

    […] The Intelligent Speculator           -1.27% […]

  7. Comment by IS — April 1, 2010 @ 7:20 am

    @Vito – All good points. Unfortunately, in this specific contest, we cannot exit positions so for now, I’m hoping JJN can hold up while UNG recovers:)

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