After ending the 2009 competition on a high note and winning among peer bloggers, I obviously had very high expectations for this year’s picks and followed a similar strategy, picking two more general economic picks; UNG and JJN, two commodity picks as well as two tech stocks; Google (GOOG) and Sohu (SOHU).
Unfortunately, as you can see in these results, things have not been as good so far this year. Thankfully things have gone better in my picks done on this website! Of course, it is still very early and I still think I have a shot at winning, but to be honest, my pick on Natural Gas has turned into a disaster! So without further wait, here are my 4 picks:
JJN: +35.69% Great performance as nickel has continued to soar, I’d say things will ease down but I’m comfortable with the pick.
UNG: -31.27% – You know things are bad when companies such as Shell are working on ways to convert natural gas into oil. It means that Natural Gas is dirt cheap. And that is exactly what has been happening. Again, I can’t see prices going much lower so not too worried about the downside risk but I would not say I’m optimistic either a big rebound.
GOOG: -7.76% – Things have been hectic for Google so far this year as has been well discussed all over this blog, especially recently with the China debacle. But I remain optimistic and now that those things have more or less cleared up, I’m very comfortable with my pick, more on that next week but let’s just say I’m a strong Google (GOOG) believer right now.
SOHU: -1.75% – Sohu has struggled like almost all Chinese stocks (major exception would be Baidu (BIDU)), I do still think the stock looks attractive on valuation as its sales growth (20%) is actually higher than its P/E ratio (15).
Think things will turn around? In any case, here are the full results so far (links are either to the results post or to the picks post depending if the results were published yet on each blog, but results will be updated) :
Ticker Name Price Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Ex-Dvd Industry
RIG Transocean Ltd 18.4 16.3 63.79 2/18/2015 Oil&Gas Drilling
WIN Windstream Holdings Inc 8.54 11.71 250.77 3/27/2015 Telephone-Integrated
DO Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc 33.91 10.32 88.69 02/12/2015 Oil&Gas Drilling
ESV Ensco PLC 29.94 10.02 36.9 03/12/2015 Oil&Gas Drilling
NE Noble Corp plc 17.97 8.35 25.2 02/06/2015 Oil&Gas Drilling
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc 18.98 6.59 84.82 4/16/2015 Metal-Copper
FTR Frontier Communications Corp 7.34 5.72 362.42 03/09/2015 Telephone-Integrated
T AT&T Inc 34.34 5.48 154.71 04/01/2015 Telephone-Integrated
CTL CenturyLink Inc 39.59 5.46 #VALUE! 2/27/2015 Telephone-Integrated
MAT Mattel Inc 28.065 5.42 103.28 2/17/2015 Toys
OKE ONEOK Inc 46.78 5.17 117.5 4/29/2015 Pipelines
WMB Williams Cos Inc/The 46.08 4.95 222.62 03/11/2015 Pipelines
PM Philip Morris International Inc 82.24 4.86 68.07 3/24/2015 Tobacco
HCP HCP Inc 46.81 4.83 106.92 02/05/2015 REITS-Health Care
IRM Iron Mountain Inc 40.2 4.73 213.91 3/18/2015 REITS-Storage
VZ Verizon Communications Inc 47.83 4.6 89.18 04/08/2015 Telephone-Integrated
PBCT People's United Financial Inc 14.59 4.52 19.26 4/29/2015 S&L/Thrifts-Eastern US
KMI Kinder Morgan Inc/DE 41.48 4.34 192.82 4/29/2015 Pipelines
CNP CenterPoint Energy Inc 22.84 4.33 114.15 02/11/2015 Gas-Distribution
COP ConocoPhillips 67.74 4.31 61.24 02/12/2015 Oil Comp-Explor&Prodtn
SE Spectra Energy Corp 34.94 4.24 80.56 02/11/2015 Pipelines
SO Southern Co/The 50.8 4.14 107.36 02/12/2015 Electric-Integrated
PPL PPL Corp 36.38 4.1 79.79 03/09/2015 Electric-Integrated
TE TECO Energy Inc 21.68 4.06 96.66 2/13/2015 Electric-Integrated
HP Helmerich & Payne Inc 67.85 4.05 37.52 02/11/2015 Oil&Gas Drilling
HCN Health Care REIT Inc 81.76 4.04 3110.77 02/06/2015 REITS-Health Care
VTR Ventas Inc 79.73 3.96 164.06 03/06/2015 REITS-Health Care
POM Pepco Holdings Inc 27.43 3.94 245.45 03/06/2015 Electric-Integrated
PCL Plum Creek Timber Co Inc 44.8 3.93 145.32 02/11/2015 REITS-Diversified
CVX Chevron Corp 109.53 3.91 41.21 02/12/2015 Oil Comp-Integrated
WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd 155.8 3.85 96.59 02/11/2015 Casino Hotels
F Ford Motor Co 15.65 3.84 61.37 4/28/2015 Auto-Cars/Light Trucks
RAI Reynolds American Inc 69.91 3.83 79.1 03/06/2015 Tobacco
MO Altria Group Inc 54.26 3.83 76.92 3/13/2015 Tobacco
ED Consolidated Edison Inc 68.99 3.77 67.89 2/13/2015 Electric-Integrated
CCI Crown Castle International Corp 87.24 3.76 179.32 3/17/2015 REITS-Diversified
GE General Electric Co 24.47 3.76 58.26 2/19/2015 Diversified Manufact Op
ETR Entergy Corp 89.42 3.71 83.11 02/10/2015 Electric-Integrated
LO Lorillard Inc 66.46 3.7 69.92 2/25/2015 Tobacco
DUK Duke Energy Corp 86.78 3.67 82.38 02/11/2015 Electric-Integrated
STX Seagate Technology PLC 59.25 3.65 35.85 02/06/2015 Computers-Memory Devices
DRI Darden Restaurants Inc 60.76 3.62 157.37 04/10/2015 Retail-Restaurants
MCD McDonald's Corp 93.92 3.62 67.6 2/26/2015 Retail-Restaurants
AEE Ameren Corp 45.43 3.61 75.81 03/09/2015 Electric-Integrated
DOW Dow Chemical Co/The 46.89 3.58 52.2 3/30/2015 Chemicals-Diversified
GRMN Garmin Ltd 53.65 3.58 57.44 03/12/2015 Electronic Compo-Misc
GAS AGL Resources Inc 57.19 3.57 70.93 02/11/2015 Gas-Distribution
FE FirstEnergy Corp 40.44 3.56 245.23 02/04/2015 Electric-Integrated
GM General Motors Co 33.98 3.53 0 03/09/2015 Auto-Cars/Light Trucks
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp 52.1 3.53 52.22 3/16/2015 Multi-line Insurance
GME GameStop Corp 37.5 3.52 37.21 03/05/2015 Retail-Computer Equip
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp 82.15 3.51 34.84 03/09/2015 Oil Comp-Explor&Prodtn
PFE Pfizer Inc 32.02 3.5 74.02 02/04/2015 Medical-Drugs
COH Coach Inc 38.69 3.49 47.88 03/06/2015 Retail-Apparel/Shoe
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Inc 43.2 3.43 58.57 03/06/2015 Electric-Integrated
HST Host Hotels & Resorts Inc 23.31 3.43 169.52 3/27/2015 REITS-Hotels
KIM Kimco Realty Corp 28.06 3.42 174.48 3/30/2015 REITS-Shopping Centers
NOV National Oilwell Varco Inc 54.08 3.4 28.65 03/11/2015 Oil Field Mach&Equip
PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corp 70.46 3.38 60.31 4/30/2015 Electric-Integrated
AEP American Electric Power Co Inc 62.76 3.38 60.75 02/06/2015 Electric-Integrated
EXC Exelon Corp 36.93 3.36 73.55 02/11/2015 Electric-Integrated
TEG Integrys Energy Group Inc 81.27 3.35 61.84 2/27/2015 Electric-Integrated
CAT Caterpillar Inc 83.92 3.33 45.1 4/16/2015 Machinery-Constr&Mining
SCG SCANA Corp 63.76 3.29 60.3 03/11/2015 Electric-Integrated
KRFT Kraft Foods Group Inc 66.97 3.29 45.05 3/30/2015 Food-Misc/Diversified
WY Weyerhaeuser Co 35.57 3.26 72.43 2/25/2015 REITS-Diversified
PBI Pitney Bowes Inc 23.01 3.26 63.74 02/11/2015 Office Automation&Equip
NUE Nucor Corp 45.73 3.26 66.41 3/27/2015 Steel-Producers
PAYX Paychex Inc 46.91 3.24 81.37 05/08/2015 Data Processing/Mgmt
LYB LyondellBasell Industries NV 86.9 3.22 33.67 03/05/2015 Chemicals-Diversified
CA CA Inc 31.18 3.21 50.39 2/17/2015 Enterprise Software/Serv
AES AES Corp/VA 12.48 3.21 43.11 4/29/2015 Electric-Generation
XEL Xcel Energy Inc 37.64 3.19 59.2 3/17/2015 Electric-Integrated
ABBV AbbVie Inc 61.65 3.18 150.65 04/10/2015 Medical-Drugs
EMR Emerson Electric Co 59.44 3.16 56.36 02/11/2015 Electric Products-Misc
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corp 63.47 3.15 51.29 2/19/2015 Semiconductor Equipment
MCHP Microchip Technology Inc 45.585 3.13 71.14 2/19/2015 Electronic Compo-Semicon
LMT Lockheed Martin Corp 192 3.13 48.12 2/26/2015 Aerospace/Defense
PCG PG&E Corp 58.85 3.09 100.61 3/30/2015 Electric-Integrated
GIS General Mills Inc 53.26 3.08 53.41 04/10/2015 Food-Misc/Diversified
D Dominion Resources Inc/VA 78.58 3.07 72.88 2/25/2015 Electric-Integrated
DTE DTE Energy Co 90.03 3.07 68.53 3/19/2015 Electric-Integrated
CMS CMS Energy Corp 37.84 3.07 61.36 02/04/2015 Electric-Integrated
CVC Cablevision Systems Corp 19.6 3.06 122.86 03/12/2015 Cable/Satellite TV
KMB Kimberly-Clark Corp 110.17 3.06 85.35 03/04/2015 Consumer Products-Misc
HAS Hasbro Inc 56.145 3.06 72.88 05/01/2015 Toys
SYY Sysco Corp 39.54 3.04 72.31 04/01/2015 Food-Wholesale/Distrib
NAVI Navient Corp 21.08 3.04 #VALUE! 03/04/2015 Finance-Consumer Loans
WEC Wisconsin Energy Corp 55.96 3.02 56.96 02/11/2015 Electric-Integrated
PG Procter & Gamble Co/The 85.95 3.01 61 4/22/2015 Cosmetics&Toiletries
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp 92.25 2.99 35.57 02/06/2015 Oil Comp-Integrated
IP International Paper Co 53.73 2.98 110.28 02/11/2015 Paper&Related Products
MSFT Microsoft Corp 41.6 2.98 42 2/17/2015 Applications Software
NU Northeast Utilities 56.04 2.98 58.87 2/26/2015 Electric-Integrated
MRK Merck & Co Inc 61.02 2.97 116.53 03/12/2015 Medical-Drugs
BAX Baxter International Inc 70.45 2.95 57.1 03/04/2015 Medical Products
XLNX Xilinx Inc 39.305 2.95 42.41 05/11/2015 Electronic Compo-Semicon
KO Coca-Cola Co/The 41.63 2.94 57.85 03/11/2015 Beverages-Non-alcoholic
K Kellogg Co 66.65 2.94 36.16 2/27/2015 Food-Misc/Diversified
VLO Valero Energy Corp 54.38 2.94 14.95 02/09/2015 Oil Refining&Marketing
[…] 8. Intelligent Speculator: -1.27% […]
I have to give you credit a lot of people will not talk about their failures.
[…] Intelligent Speculator […]
[…] Intelligent Speculator […]
I am pretty sure things will improve for GOOG and UNG. I honestly would exit from positions on JJN and SOHU.
JJN seems at a correct valuation now (well done to spot it while undervalued), so it is unlikely that will keep the momentum, or, as for the gas, this may be another bubble just waiting to bust. Just cash it!
About SOHU,I just don’t see any Chinese stock to be able to deliver much in the medium term, although I think the consideration on P/E makes SOHU a valid one across the bunch.
[…] The Intelligent Speculator -1.27% […]
@Vito – All good points. Unfortunately, in this specific contest, we cannot exit positions so for now, I’m hoping JJN can hold up while UNG recovers:)
[…] 8. Intelligent Speculator: -1.27% […]
[…] The Intelligent Speculator -23.03% […]
[…] 8. Intelligent Speculator: -20.57% […]