Archive for the ‘Free Stock Picks’ Category

New Trade: Long Expedia ($EXPE) & Short Travelzoo ($TZOO)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 09.15.2017 (6:01 am)

Today I am opening my 13th trade of the year in what has so far been a good year. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
EXPEExpedia Inc143.3855.4621.8329.3931.494.5327.8558.3520.277.3
TZOOTravelzoo7.7525.3226.61-16.49-9.2931.189.18-7.182.91

Revenue growth for Travelzoo has been challenging to say the least and that makes it difficult for me to make sense of its current valuation.

Long Expedia (EXPE)

Expedia has been an incredibly steady and high performing name in the past few years and part of that, of course, was due to CEO Dara Khosrowshahi who has now left to take the same job at Uber. I do believe that the future continues to be extremely bright for both Expedia and Priceline in the online travel industry and at these levels, I have slightly more confidence in Expedia but both will do well as they continue to profit from the consolidation of the industry.

Next earnings: October 26th 2017


Short Travelzoo (TZOO)

Looking at traffic data and trends from Google confirms that there is very little growth coming out of Travelzoo. One thing that did come out is that TZOO seems to be getting some traction in China which would be promising but that is also an extremely competitive area and I’m not convinced that it is enough for TZOO to turn things around.

Next earnings: October 26th 2017

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not hold a position in EXPE or TZOO

Closing 1 Trade ($FB, $MTCH)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 09.15.2017 (5:36 am)

This morning I will be closing one of the 4 existing live trades, where in April I went long Facebook (FB) and short Match Inc (MTCH). Obviously, MTCH has done extremely well and continues to be the clear leader in the online dating space. That trade currently stands at -29.69% bringing down the average of the year to barely breakeven.

Closing 2 Trades (TRIP, YELP, PCLN, TZOO)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 08.07.2017 (8:59 am)

This morning, I will be closing 2 trades that are currently beyond their stop. One winning and one losing trade:

Jan 4th: Long Tripadvisor (TRIP) vs Short Yelp (YELP):  This trade currently stands at -32.79% on the back of an incredible jump by YELP following its latest earnings and specifically its decision to sell its Eat24 business to Grubhub.

March 16th: Long Priceline (PCLN) vs Short Travelzoo (TZOO):  This one currently stands at +28,59% and its incredible how reliable of a play being long Priceline (PCLN) has been over the past couple of decades. Just stunning and I’d actually bet that will continue.

 

Closing 1 Trade ($AMZN, $ETSY)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 06.23.2017 (6:19 am)

As much as Amazon has been in the news, Etsy has been on quite a streak and my short position has not done well in recent weeks so I will be closing the trade on this morning’s open. I do remain very skeptical about ETSY’s longer term prospects but it does look like it will be able to have a shot in competing against the likes of Amazon so it will be interesting to follow. As is always the case, you can see my 2017 (and previous years) long & short tech stocks here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

 

New Trade: Long Paypal (PYPL) & Short IAC Interactive (IAC)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 06.21.2017 (5:53 am)

Today I am opening my 12th trade of the year in what has so far been a good year. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
IACIAC/InterActiveCorp102.9636.9824.3261.09-2.824.523.511.138/2/201739.233.7833.02
PYPLPayPal Holdings Inc52.5244.0524.9334.117.244.3312.231.187/20/20178.96N/AN/A

Revenue growth for IAC has come down quite a bit and I do think that PYPL will be able to keep up its current growth in the short to medium term.

 

Long Paypal (PYPL)

Paypal is a very interesting story right now. Not only does its main business participate in the growth of ecommerce and online payments but it also owns Venmo, an incredibly popular P2P payment solution. Paypal has been in the news a lot recently as the big ecosystem players continue to take stabs at its main business. Just recently, Apple announced it would be possible to do P2P payments through Apple Pay using iMessage which does sound like a big threat. I do think it is and I continue to believe Paypal will struggle to remain dominant against these much bigger players. The threat does seem a bit overblown at this point though and I do think PYPL will continue to do well in the short to medium term. Why? Because online payments are a very fast growing business and more than one player will do well so I think PYPL is very well positioned.

 

Next earnings: July 20th 2017


Short IAC Interactive (IAC)

IAC Interactive continues to be an interesting stock to follow but to me the main story remains that IAC has struggled to come up with the next big thing which has translated into slower revenue growth. The stock did see solid acceleration and that has been mainly caused by improved profits but as you can imagine, that will be more difficult to sustain without better top line growth.

 

Next earnings: August 2nd 2017

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not hold a position in PYPL or IAC

Closing 1 Trade ($AAPL, $IAC)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 05.05.2017 (5:28 am)

It’s been a good year and the portfolio does still have a 10.61% return so far this year but this morning I will be closing my first losing trade of the year, as the trade from February 10th long Apple (AAPL) and short IAC Interactive (IAC) turned bad when IAC exploded higher. As is always the case, you can see my 2017 (and previous years) long & short tech stocks here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

New Trade: Long Facebook (FB) & Short Match (MTCH)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.03.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my 11th trade of the year in what has so far been a good year. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
MTCHMatch Group Inc16.3326.7315.35-3.819.84.111.94N/A5/2/20174.86N/AN/A
FBFacebook Inc142.0543.6821.123.7854.164.7120.471.064/26/20179.6550.94156.9

Revenue growth for Facebook unsurprisingly has been very steady over the years while TZOO is not seeing much positive

Long Facebook (FB)

It’s no secret that I’ve been a big believer in Facebook and that continues to be the case. It’s fair to say that Facebook’s core product growth opportunities will start to be more limited given the number of active users and ad growth. Even there though, as Facebook starts to add more video and as offline ad dollars move online, core Facebook will continue to see significant growth. Instagram is just getting started and time spent on Whatsapp and Messenger are incredibly bullish for its future. I continue to think Facebook is one if not the best growth opportunity among the tech stocks that I follow.

Next earnings: April 26th 2017


Short Match Inc (MTCH)

I’d generally say that Match has been an impressive story in recent years and I do expect that trend to continue but in this case, I’m mostly betting that it’s current valuation means it will underperform Facebook in the short term. Match does face a tremendous amount of competition and I’m not convinced that its current valuation is justified given its growth prospects.

Next earnings: May 2nd 2017

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I am long Facebook (FB)

Closing 1 Trade (FB & PYPL)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.02.2017 (3:05 am)

Good Sunday morning! Tomorrow morning, I will be closing out one of the 7 live trades, as I close the Long Facebook (FB) and Short Paypal (PYPL) trade that was started on January 3rd. The trade currently stands at +21.10%. Last week I wrote a deeper dive into my thoughts about Paypal on SeekingAlpha, you can see it here:

Paypal is standing on the edge of a cliff

Facebook on the other hand has been doing tremendously well and while it continues to be under fire for a few things, I do like what I’m seeing out of Facebook and will certainly write more about it soon. There’s also a decent chance that I’ll be opening a new long & short trade with Facebook and as you know, it does remain my biggest single stock position.

As is always the case, you can see my 2017 (and past years) long & short stock picks and returns here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

New Trade: Long Priceline (PCLN) & Short Travelzoo (TZOO)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 03.16.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my 10th trade of the year in what has so far been a good year. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
PCLNPriceline Group Inc/The1767.9828.2420.4520.6616.474.62200.221.23217.0719.0224.87
TZOOTravelzoo Inc9.219.3621.67-3.19-9.2931.311.359.18-3.44N/A

Revenue growth for PCLN unsurprisingly has been very steady over the years while TZOO is not seeing much positive

 

Long Priceline (PCLN)

Priceline has been one of the most consistent stocks not only in the tech sector but in the overall market for over 10 years. It has been able to improve its core products but also make timely acquisitions to cover areas that it was lacking. Priceline is the clear leader in the online travel space and while I do expect to see TRIP gain ground at some point, there really is no one that can challenge PCLN giving me confidence that they will be able to maintain steady growth on top and bottom lines as more of the travel booking dollars move online.

Next earnings: May 3rd 2017


Short Travelzoo (TZOO)

Continues to be challenging for me to understand how Travelzoo (TZOO) could be trading at a comparable forward P/E to Priceline. Not only has the company displayed very little top or bottom line growth but I’m not seeing much in terms of product innovation in a fast changing environment. I personally see TZOO’s model in a similar way to what Groupon was built on which still works but is clearly not doing as well these days.

Next earnings: April 27th 2017

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not have a position on PCLN or TZOO

New Trade: Long Salesforce ($CRM) & Short Twitter ($TWTR)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 03.06.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my 9th trade of the year in what has so far been a good year. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
TWTRTwitter Inc15.75N/A37.33-3.1314.052.66.381.483.687.05N/A
CRMsalesforce.com Inc82.22N/A50.1920.7625.874.7310.771.0912.229.49-155.43

Revenue growth for TWTR is in freefall while CRM remains steady:

Long Salesforce (CRM)

Today I am taking the rare step of trading 2 names that could end up seeing M&A activity. In many ways, Salesforce is in a very tough spot as it continues to compete with the likes of Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL), two giants that among other benefits, already have strong and deep corporate relationships making it more challenging for Salesforce to get its foot in the door. For that reason, Salesforce has been rumored to be for sale and has also tried to make its own splash by (among other moves), making a bid for LinkedIn, strongly looking at acquiring Twitter, etc. In the end, CRM remains in a solid position thanks to an extremely solid offering and like many other SAAS product, it has tremendous loyalty from its customers over time. I do think it’s valuation is tricky and would hesitate to go long outright but I do think that when compared with Twitter, this is a solid trade opportunity.

 

Next earnings: May 25th 2017


Short Twitter (TWTR)

What a mess… I wrote an in-depth article about Twitter recently on SeekingAlpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4043423-sad-story-twitter-told-recent-headlines

The company now seems serious about combating abuse but it is likely too little too late to stage a big turnaround. I do think that Twitter might end up being bought and as a user I’d like that to happen sooner than later to give it a better shot but as last year’s action clearly showed (where Salesforce the one serious bidder ended up not making an offer), finding a solid acquisition seems unlikely for the time being.

 

Next earnings: April 25th 2017

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not have a position on CRM or TWTR