Search Results for "feed"

AgFeed Releases Q2 Results

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 08.11.2008 (2:27 pm)

FEED – AgFeed Industries (NASDAQ) – (Closing Price – $12.77)

AgFeed Industries reported second quarter results today and reported excellent numbers. The company also raised its already impressive full year guidance.

AgFeed reported revenue of 35.6 million and diluted EPS (earnings per share) of 0.12. Revenue improved by over 400% YOY (year over year) and 193% sequentially. Diluted EPS doubled YOY and quadrupled from the previous quarter. AgFeed raised its full year revenue guidance from 135 million to a range of 145 – 155 million and raised its adjusted net EPS guidance from $0.96 – $1.10 to $1.08 – $1.20. The company mentioned the second half of the year traditionally represents its two strongest quarters.

AgFeed opened the day up over 19% from the previous close but finished the day with a gain of only 2%. I attribute this decline to day traders who were looking to sell after earnings regardless of results. I think the stock price will start to trend up after the short term traders exit their positions.

AgFeed just reported very impressive results and the company is coming into its strongest two quarters so I see no reason to sell. I would continue to hold your shares.

Disclaimer: I have no position in FEED.

New Stock Recommendation: FEED

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 05.31.2008 (6:57 pm)

FEED – AgFeed Industries (NASDAQ) – (Closing Price on Friday 5/30/08 – $15.37)

AgFeed Industries is a company that has experienced strong growth over the past year and the company is forecasting even stronger growth in the coming year. The company has given tremendous guidance for 2008 and if the company can meet its numbers the stock price should continue its rapid ascent.

AgFeed operates two integrated business lines in China: premix animal feed and hog production. The company is currently the largest premix feed company in China in terms of revenues and the company distributes its feed through over 700 independently owned chain stores. AgFeed expects to have a total of 1,000 independently owned chain stores by the end of 2008. The company also distributes feed directly to over 600 large commercial hog farms across China.

In addition to its feed business AgFeed has been rapidly expanding its hog production business. The company has acquired quite a few hog farms in the past year and the company raised money through a couple of stock sales in April to acquire even more. AgFeed currently owns controlling interest in 24 commercial hog farms throughout China with annual hog production capacity of 550,000 hogs. (more…)

Closing 1 Trade And Some News/Updates (AAPL, FIT)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 11.20.2015 (5:42 am)

First off, today I will be closing the trade where I was long Apple (AAPL) and short Fitbit (FIT) from September 21st. Fitbit has been struggling big time and that trade currently stands near +52,5% which has helped me finally get closer to “acceptable return”. 2015 trades now stand at +2,30% which is now great by any measure and certainly much lower than the past couple of years but it’s at least in positive territory, especially in a year like this one where global markets are mostly down.

Apple vs. Fitbit was a pair I really liked and while I’m not as negative about Fitbit at these levels, I do remain more likely to short it than buy it.

AAPL_FIT_chart

This week I wrote a post on SeekingAlpha about Netflix and i continue to be a strong believer in its long term future, check it out here:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3689466-netflix-has-significant-upside-as-it-continues-to-expand-internationally

Also, several of you have noticed and contacted me about the site being so slow. I’m unfortunately very aware, it’s an issue with the database. I did try to hire someone to fix it but with no success.. I will be trying again in the next few days and will get to the bottom of this but in the meantime I appreciate the patience and feedback!

Finally, today I’m adding 2 new stocks to the list of tech stocks that I follow:

$MTCHMatch Group Inc (MTCH): Match is a spinoff from IAC Interative (IACI) that includes several dating sites/apps such as Tinder, Match.com, Cupid, etc.

$SQSquare Inc (SQ): The company you’ve probably heard a lot about mainly because it shares its CEO Jack Dorsey with a certain company named Twitter (TWTR)

I’ve been following both companies for some time but do not have a strong opinion on either and I generally stay away from recently turned public companies anyway so I don’t expect to trade either for some time. I will continue to track them though and will hopefully get a better feeling either way over time hopefully.

Time To Get Out Of eBay ($EBAY)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 09.15.2014 (3:00 am)

$ebayI’ve written a decent amount about eBay (EBAY) over the years and have generally been a believer. Today, as I take a new look at things, I’m not as convinced. Why? There area few reasons that I’ll get into. But the one thing that seems apparent is that the current web ecosystem plays ($AAPL, $GOOG, $FB, $AMZN, $MSFT) are now very much ready to take on eBay and I don’t think the company has been able to properly prepare itself. It’s not impossible to survive in such a context (Netflix ($NFLX) and Twitter ($TWTR) are 2 great examples but I feel like eBAY is about to run out of time on that front.

Turns Out Carl Icahn Was Right.. But Maybe Too Late

A few months ago, Carl Icahn waged a very public war with eBay’s board, arguing that they were not doing their job and among other things, should spin out Paypal. Even at the time, I had argued that he was right but I’m believing that more and more. The company is reportedly still considering the move but at some point it will be too late. The problem isn’t so much about having both an auction store and the leading internet payment site in the same company. The issue is that Paypal didn’t get the attention it deserved. I’ve personally said for years that I was valuing eBay as a payments company because that was where the growth and the future was.

So what did Paypal need to do? It needed to quickly build a customer and offline business base that were very active, to support developers (what % of apps that you use try to get you to pay through Paypal?), etc. On those fronts, Paypal has made very little progress.

ycharts_chart

What Just Changed?

For years, Google has been trying to build a payments solution, Facebook has built “Facebook credits” while Amazon’s “Payments” has slowly but surely continued to gain ground. But what changed was Apple’s recent “Apple Pay” announcement.

Not only does that confirm how serious Apple is taking “Payments” but it will force competing players to up their game VERY quickly because you can bet that Apple will become a major player in the payments space. Apple Pay will also be used for online payments in apps, websites, etc. That is very serious competition for eBay’s Paypal and you can bet that Amazon, Google and Facebook will react to this news very quickly.

The Game Is Not Lost… YET

Of course, Apple only offers payments to its customer base leaving a majority of users unsupported. It is likely that at least one more player will emerge in this space and eBay could certainly compete. I don’t think its chances are good compared to a few years ago when it was by far the dominant payment player. Paypal has around 150 million active users and Apple will almost reach of that number when its new operating system ships next month:

iphone

credit Statista

 

Apple has also signed up all 3 major credit card issuers as partners, will have hundreds of thousands of retail points from the start, etc. Paypal was apparently pushing to be part of Apple’s payments effort but that has clearly failed.

And again… eBay is not so focused on Paypal. Instead last week it announced:

ebay2

 

 

An Ad Network?!?!? To compete with Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter and others in an ultra-competitive business where eBay has little to no competitive advantage? I don’t think I need to argue this one. Yes eBay knows a lot about what its users like to shop for… but an ad network??? It’s even worse than the focus on same day shipping. eBay is not a technology company or an ad specialist.. so where does this make sense? Why not focus on the area where the company makes most of its money and is being targeted by the world’s leading ecosystems?

Disclosure: Long eBay (EBAY).. but not for long

Facebook (FB) Reports Impressive Results But It’s Only Getting Started

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 07.24.2014 (3:00 am)

$FBI’ve obviously been writing about Facebook for quite some time on this blog and while I’ve been very fortunate in how things have played out, I do still think it’s a fascinating story no matter how you look at it. At the time of the IPO, I strongly believed Facebook was a great value at those levels but I was obviously in the minority and since I tend to stay away from newly turned public companies for the first few months (I hate the initial volatility), I did end up buying a few months later. As you can imagine, if I thought $38/share was a value, getting in under $20 was a steal. There was risk involved (there always is), but in terms of upside vs downside risk, it was a no-brainer.

Much of the criticism of Facebook’s valuation was based on:

Doubts about Facebook’s ability to remain the dominant social network (FB = MySpace)
The limited available growth in terms of users (if FB growth = user growth, then how much further can you get past 1B? and more importantly, how valuable in the short term is that 2nd billion users?)
Revenues: If mobile was going to mean less of those big flashy banner ads, then was Facebook doomed when internet moved to mobile?

I personally discounted the last 2 arguments and believed the first one was possible, especially if Facebook made some big mistakes, but unlikely. Over time, more concerns have been added:

-Younger generation moving away from Facebook
-Users splitting their attention between an increasingly large number of social services
-etc

That being said, by all accounts Facebook has been delivering in an incredible way in the past few quarters. Just look at growth in users, revenues and earnings:

DAU

REVS

EPS

 

credit: FB earnings slides

When I look at Facebook’s stock near the $75 level (point it reached yesterday in after hours trading), I do continue to see tremendous upside. Why? In my opinion, there are 5 clear steps for Facebook and while all of these will be on-going, I’d say Facebook is barely into step #2:

Step #1: Building and Never Stop Improving and Building: Clearly, Facebook already has the top social network around but has continued to build on it both through its own efforts (improving core Facebook, messenger app, etc) but also through acquisitions such as Instagram, WhatsApp, etc.

Step #2: Build an advertising based business: Facebook started off with those flashy banners but has moved beyond those to news within the newsfeed, app installs, etc. They mentioned on yesterday’s call that in many countries the ads are being perceived as nearly the same quality as the other content. Clearly, there is still a long way ahead but Facebook is making great progress as we can see in their impressive growth. I believe that will continue but perhaps even more important is Facebook’s ability to sell ads outside its walls thanks to its growing relationship with other app developers, its integration of Liverail, etc. Facebook is only getting started here.

Step #3: Other revenue efforts: As of right now, efforts such as payments, ecommerce and subscriptions are minimal as they should be. But I strongly believe that these will represent a huge stepping stone in the coming decade. There are much bigger gains in advertising right now but as the internet continues to mature, as smartphones spread and as Facebook’s ecosystem and the outside world adapts, revenue opportunities will emerge and I think this will be a focus in a few years.

Step #4: Full integration: I’m clearly not a believer in Facebook integrating Instagram, WhatsApp or other “products” into Facebook but if Facebook does make progress on elements such as payments, advertising, etc, it will clearly be able to slowly integrate some of those features into those products. There is no reason to rush this. Those products are not as mature and the focus is on step #1 but I do think they will reach that point in the future.

Step #5: Future Platforms: Mark Zuckerberg discussed this a bit in yesterday’s call. Clearly, while Facebook has what I consider to be an ecosystem, it does not control things the same way that Apple and Google do because those 2 players own the dominant mobile O/S. One day, as we have started moving away from desktop computers, smartphones will start losing market share to newer mediums and Facebook believes the Oculus Rift purchase will help Facebook be in a better position in the next “platform” than it is on desktop or mobile platforms.

So yes, Facebook is just getting started and the upside remains very significant in a market where most see Facebook’s end game as advertising.

FB Chart

FB data by YCharts

Disclaimer: Long Facebook (FB)

 

Safety First: Creating a Safe and Trustworthy E-commerce Shop

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 05.22.2014 (8:44 am)

testWhen searching the internet for the various tips and tricks on setting up your own shop, you will see a small section dedicated to safety and trust, but it is not just a small part of your future business. Creating a safe and trustworthy environment is very important in every business, especially when a business is online. Many people are afraid to shop online because of the high amounts of fraud reported in the media. It does not usually keep shoppers away from online stores, but it does tend to make them wary when buying from a store that is new to them.

Building Trust with Customers
In order to change a casual window shopper into a supporting customer, you must first establish a feeling of trust. Creating trust can be done in a number of ways, including the look and feel of your website. Websites that look thrown together, have unprofessional photographs and videos, and are not easy to navigate will create a distrusting feeling for the perusing shopper, but if your website is put together in an orderly fashion, with high-quality images, and is easy to navigate, those perspective shoppers will turn into customers.

Trust Icons and Badges
Icons and badges are a universal sign when it comes to establishing trust. Your business will already have many elements of security involved in its setup, but customers need to know about security measures you have put in place. Adding icons to the bottom of your webpage and on the form customers fill out when shopping is a great way to establish the feeling of security shoppers want and need. While this may seem like a minor step, it will greatly help consumers feel safe and secure. Many platforms make this available by providing you with codes for those icons that you can easily place on your page.

Be Open with Customers
Telling customers where you are located helps to establish credibility and trust. Stating the city you are in or near is a great way to build that trust, even if you do not have a physical store location. If you tell customers where you are located, they will truly feel they are working with a real person. Not knowing anything about the shop, its proprietor, or even its location leaves potential customers feeling a strong sense of unease. By providing a professional headshot with a brief bio, you will be able to make the customer feel as if they are getting to know you and feel as if your shop is to be trusted over your competitors. Create content that is engaging and personal when writing about your shop, yourself, and your mission. By getting on a personal level with potential customers, you will make them feel as though you consider them friends. This is a great way to boost your sales because people enjoy feeling that they are supporting people they know. Another way to add a personal touch and feeling of trust is to link customers to your Twitter page. It does not have to be your personal feed, but linking to a Twitter account that is not in the shop’s name will help customers feel as if they are comfortable with you and thus develop trust.

Promise of Privacy
Privacy policies are very important to all customers, and these policies will help keep your business safe from legal problems. If you do not have a solid privacy policy in place, the feeling of trust will evaporate, and customers will leave. Research the legal basis for privacy policies and make sure you meet each and every element within the law. Before you even publish your shop’s website, create a privacy policy and make sure it is solid. If you are struggling on how to make a solid policy, there are many sites that can help you establish one. You can also look at who your competitors will be and what policies they have implemented. Competitors can be a tremendous help as you start out your business because you will be able to learn various things from their success and mistakes. Once you have established your privacy policy, you will be ready to set up your new shop with great online store design from Shopify completely and begin selling your items!

Protecting Your Shop
You have convinced your customers to trust you, but you must make sure that it is not in vain. Follow security precautions when setting up your shop and creating the various requirements shoppers will need to meet when they set up a profile to shop with you. One of the first steps to ensure privacy is to make it necessary for shoppers to have strong passwords. Strong passwords keep information private as well as protecting your customer’s information from being used fraudulently. Providing tracking numbers for all purchases is another way to protect your shop and your customers. A tracking number will give both you and the customer peace of mind while also providing you with information if the package never makes it to the shopper. Choosing the right platform for your store will help you when taking steps to ensure your store is secure and safe from fraud. Many platforms will have security elements in place. This can help ease your mind as you prepare to open your new shop, making the process go smoothly.

Final Thoughts
As you have read, trust and security is not just limited to making sure your customers are safe from fraudulent actions, but also that they feel safe when they first happen across your page. Developing trust is key in every relationship, especially when it comes to purchasing items from someone over the internet. You will be able to maintain the shopper’s trust by making sure your entire website is secure and ensuring their privacy will be kept. By doing all of this, you will be well on your way to creating more sales and having a loyal customer base who will happily share their experience with their friends.

Reluctantly Closing A Long Apple ($AAPL) Position

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.28.2014 (3:00 am)

$AAPLA couple of years ago, I decided, after feedback from many of you, to let my winning trades ride a bit longer. I do still stick to my -20% stop loss limit but have been more flexible with winners and overall that has worked out extremely well. This morning I’ll be closing a trade that has been above the +20% “limit” for a little while. It was my first trade of the year and (by far) my highest conviction trade.

On January 7th, I went long Apple (AAPL) and shorted Rackspace (RAX). I believed strongly in the trade and that belief has only gotten stronger since then. Why? I generally do my long & short trades based on stocks that pair well against each other but this was a case of holding the stock that I liked the most (in terms of risk vs reward) vs a stock that I continue to believe is overhyped.

Apple delivered strong results last week and had a nice bump. I do think it will go a lot higher though and will certainly keep my long term speculative position which is much more significant. I’ll write more about Apple soon (it’s been a while) but it continues to look like a no-brainer. Are there some concerns? Yes, but from a valuation perspective, this screams “winner”.

$RAXRackspace on the other hand is a great company in an exploding field. You’d think that could justify its high P/E ratio. It just doesn’t. Everything related to cloud based hosting will be a very tough environment. Facing competition from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG) and others is just not going to be a good proposition. These players are ready:

-deploy billion $ investments to build
-play the very long term (read decades) game
-offer pricing that is barely break-even (Amazon does that for much of its business while others are simply trying to gain competitive positioning)
-have existing relationships with virtually all of the existing and potential RAX clients

Yes, Rackspace’s offering is not identical or even that close to what those players offer. But their pricing has a big influence on what RAX can charge its customers, they are also fighting for the same talent, etc. Cloud is the future, but it’s a very low-margin one.

Why Close The Trade Then?

As of Friday’s close, this trade stands at +40% and at this point I’m ready to take the gains and re-evaluate. I do follow Apple very closely and can tell you right now that I’ll take a new position soon but I do need to do more homework on RAX before shorting it again. I’ll take a week to go over things and then get back into it with what could be the same trade again, we’ll have to wait and see.

AAPL Chart

AAPL data by YCharts

Things continue to look promising for the long & short trades as the average trade has returned 9.85% this year, far above my “target” return for these trades. You can see those trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Disclaimer: Long Apple (AAPL) and short Rackspace (RAX)

General Readings – Game Of Thrones

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.04.2014 (3:00 am)

game-of-thrones-tv-show-poster-daenerysThere are many shows that I enjoy watching but in the past few years, Game of Thrones has been of my favorite ones so I’m thrilled that the 4th season starts this Sunday, can’t wait:))) Until then, here are a few good readings:)

General Readings

The idiots guide to HFT trading @ BlogMaverick
Obama vs Putin: the rematch @ WashingtonPost
Kid gets accepted to all 8 IVY league schools @ Uproxx
HFT delays IPO because of Michael Lewis book @ ZeroHedge
Caterpillar (CAT) escaped $2.4B in taxes with Swiss tactic @ Bloomberg

Tech Stock Readings

The original social network @ Eugenewei
Why Alibaba is buying shopping malls while Facebook is buying virtual-reality companies @ Quartz
Amazon (AMZN) launches its much anticipated tv set box @ TechCrunch
Steve Jobs promised ‘holy war’ on Google, court hears @ FT

Weekend Readings – Next Frontier For Hedge Funds

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 03.14.2014 (3:00 am)

money treeCrazy stuff… so apparently it is now possible to get live satellite feeds and some hedge funds are looking at using that info to see how much traffic stores have in their parking lots, etc. How in the world can individual investors compete with that type of knowledge? Insane right…Here are a few more readings

General Readings

Why is American (and Canadian) internet so slow @ TheWeek
HFT firm made profits in 1237 out of last 1238 days @ ZeroHedge
Yale endowment letter @ Yale

Tech Stock Readings

Tencent vs Alibaba for Chinese web dominance @ Quartz
Turning cars into iphone accessories @ TechCrunch

Weekend Readings – Love Japan

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 03.07.2014 (3:00 am)
There are so many different things that I find fascinating about Japan and random stories like this are part of the reason..! I can’t wait to go back:) A photographer leaving $7000 worth of equipment on a train only to get back every piece of it?

General Readings

The Cost of bitcoin @ stratechery
The Face behind Bitcoin @ Newsweek

Technology Stock Readings

A believer in Netflix, it’s not too late @ SeekingAlpha
Why TripAdvisor (TRIP) should consider acquiring OpenTable (OPEN) @ SeekingAlpha
WhatsAp is Different @ OM
Facebook getting into drone business? @ TechCrunch
Understand Google’s business model @ Bmimatters