Archive for September, 2015

Opening 2 New Long & Short Trades ($FB, $EBAY, $EXPE, $NILE)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 09.23.2015 (3:00 am)

It has taken too long but I am finally able to open a few new trades after closing 2 of the existing ones last Monday. Given the lack of time between now and month end, I prefer doing 3 today with a brief explanation and then getting back to more lengthy explanations.

As is always the case you can see my long & short trades (from 2015 but also past years) here:

You can also see the numbers for the 6 stocks that will be traded today here:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
EBAYeBay Inc25.6110.313.329.7411.563.5616.260.8810/14/201514.3114.876.07
FBFacebook Inc92.95797.534.8822.4758.364.6714.020.8510/28/20154.7758.4N/A
EXPEExpedia Inc124.8835.4722.0748.8620.83.8616.351.1410/29/201544.7114.981.95
NILEBlue Nile Inc32.9739.6523.48-6.415.224.140.770.710/30/201538.998.446.53



$FBLong Facebook (FB) & Short eBay (EBAY)

Over the years, I have traded eBay (EBAY) several times and explained why I was treating it as an online bank. In short, the growth in EBAY was coming from its Paypal (PYPL) unit. Now that PYPL is gone, EBAY is a whole different company and one that I’m extremely skeptical about. Yes, Ive seen them looking into same day shipping (which it finally killed) and other experiments in order to better compete with the likes of Amazon (AMZN). On the other hand, Facebook (FB) has such a strong position in the new “web” thanks to its very strong app presence. While it is priced at a much higher forward P/E, I do believe Facebook continues to have a very strong profile compared to its valuation


Long Expedia Inc (EXPE) & Short Blue Nile (NILE)

This trade is one between two stocks that trade at almost identical forward P/E’s. Once again, I consider Blue Nile (NILE) to be overvalued. The stock is growing sales 4 times slower than EXPE but trading at identical ratios. Expedia has also historically been able to maintain higher margins and I do think it’s one of the few online travel companies that will be able to perform well in the coming years. Contrast that with NILE which will continue to face strong competition and there’s always the potential of seeing Amazon get involved in the business.

Disclosure: I have long term sustainable positions on Facebook (FB)

Opening 3 New Long & Short Trades

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 09.21.2015 (3:00 am)

It has taken too long but I am finally able to open a few new trades after closing 2 of the existing ones last Monday. Given the lack of time between now and month end, I prefer doing 3 today with a brief explanation and then getting back to more lengthy explanations.

As is always the case you can see my long & short trades (from 2015 but also past years) here:

You can also see the numbers for the 6 stocks that will be traded today here:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg GrowthSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPLApple Inc113.4513.1511.654.466.954.4122.031.0610/20/201530.0428.7836.91N/AN/A
FITFitbit Inc40.72N/A41.76N/A174.984.063.18N/A11/05/20156.21N/AN/A11.5513.14
TRIPTripAdvisor Inc68.6447.0926.13-7.9831.93.418.611.6310/22/20158.7126.58N/A-0.92N/A
TWTRTwitter Inc27.92N/A46.14-22.69111.013.586.270.7910/27/20152.32N/AN/AN/AN/A
TZOOTravelzoo Inc9.263.0234.79-27.5-
YHOOYahoo! Inc30.7442.6146.49-39.34-1.334.2735.681.1710/21/20154.68-4.15N/AN/AN/A


$AAPLLong Apple (AAPL) & Short Fitbit (FIT)

-Overall, this trade looks like a clear winner. Apple, despite still being able to grow its top and bottom line in recent quarters continues to trade extremely cheap and was the “cheapest” stock in my list after my initial screening. Fitbit on the other hand is a clear play on wearables and while the recently turned public company continues to display growth, I’m personally extremely sceptical after dealing with the company over a few years. That being said, FIT has been doing extremely well in the markets and it’s always a bit of a risk to short a company with this kind of momentum. Time will tell.

$TRIPLong TripAdvisor (TRIP) & Short Travelzoo (TZOO)

I continue to be a strong believer in TripAdvisor as the long term dominant player in the online travel space. A few names such as Priceline (PCLN) will certainly remain extremely strong but any time I a competitor trading at a much higher forward P/E, I’ll look at the trade opportunity and this time I’m ready to go ahead and trade it.

$TWTRLong Twitter (TWTR) & Short Yahoo (YHOO)

On these particular names, I have very different views. Basically, Twitter is a name where I see decent upside and very limited downside at these levels, even with everything that is going on. Yahoo is almost the opposite with very little upside and bigger downside. For this type of trade, it’s a great combination.

Disclosure: I have long term sustainable positions on both Apple (AAPL) and TripAdvisor (TRIP)

What Is The Best Strategy For Trading Binary Options?

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 09.20.2015 (8:24 am)

Any profitable binary options trader will tell you that in order to be successful in the industry, it’s important to have a solid strategy to work with. In fact, the better your strategy, the more profitable you can be. As a beginner trader, you’ll quickly learn that there are several binary options strategies to choose from. As a result, one of the most commonly asked questions I receive is “What is the best strategy for trading binary options?” In my opinion, that strategy is known as trend trading with the news. It’s really a combination of two different strategies, but if used properly, it can be incredibly profitable.


What Is Trend Trading With The News

Trend trading with the news is a binary options trading strategy that combines the trend trading strategy and the news trading strategy. Essentially, one of the first things you’ll learn is that market movement tends to happen in trends. Therefore, by following trends, you’ll realize that there are several opportunities to take advantage of. However, trends are born from news; which is why many traders utter the words “the news moves the market” quite often. Therefore, the trend trading with the news strategy is the process of following the news that cause the trends and taking advantage of the trends for profit.


What You’ll Need To Employ This Strategy

To employ the trend trading with the news strategy, you’re going to need two things…

  • Economic Calendar – First and foremost, it’s important that you know about the news events before they happen. Therefore, the economic calendar is an incredibly important tool. Economic calendars are offered by just about every major financial news outlet for free. They act just like regular calendars. However, there is one difference. Economic calendars list the events that are going to happen that are likely to cause movement in the market.
  • Candlestick Charts – Candlestick charts make trends easy to find and follow. These are also provided for free through most major financial news outlets.

How To Employ The Trend Trading With The News Strategy

Step #1: Find The News – First and foremost, you’ll want to open your economic calendar and read through the upcoming events. These events include job reports, earnings reports, company statements and more. Choose the events that you believe will cause the most movement in the market and make a note of what they are and when they take place.

Step #2: Make Yourself Available – You can’t trade if you’re not available. So, knowing when the events are going to happen, mark your calendar to make yourself available 10 minutes before the event and for a few hours after the event.

Step #3: Map The Trends – Before the event happens, open your candlestick chart and wait for the event. After about 5 minutes, a clear trend will become apparent. Make a note of what the trend is and how strong it is.

Step #4: Trade The Trends – Finally, based on your notes, it’s time to start trading. If the trend is an uptrend, start purchasing call options to follow the trend up to profits. Adversely, if the trend is a downtrend, start purchasing put options to follow the trend down to profits.


Final Thoughts

I’ve employed the trend trading with the news strategy countless times; and it has been incredibly effective for me. As you can see from the steps above, it’s not very hard to do either. So, what are you waiting for? It’s time to bring up your economic calendar and get started!

Top 100 Dividend Stocks – September 2015 Edition

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 09.15.2015 (3:00 am)

$MATToday, I’m back with a look at the top dividend stocks (in terms of yield) in the S&P500. It has been a long time since I updated this mostly because of my absence from this blog as you might have read yesterday.

Here is the full list!

There are many names that are the same as they were a few months ago but some changes are surprising. For example, how did Mattel Inc (MAT) end up in the top 5 in terms of dividend yield? Here is the stock over the past year:

Why the decline? Fundamentals have also been declining:

Just look at diluted earnings per share in the past 12-18 months.


TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Dvd
CTLCenturyLink Inc26.288.22159.4642075
FTRFrontier Communications Corp5.327.89308.7342259
OKEONEOK Inc35.196.88139.1742105
MATMattel Inc22.66.73104.0311/23/2015
IRMIron Mountain Inc28.386.69321.439/23/2015
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE30.16.51194.9110/30/2015
HCPHCP Inc36.096.26113.3142135
VTRVentas Inc52.666192.1512/17/2015
TAT&T Inc32.725.75154.7142195
GRMNGarmin Ltd35.895.68101.86/13/2016
CVXChevron Corp75.795.6541.211/18/2015
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc17.695.666.7811/16/2015
HPHelmerich & Payne Inc49.355.5737.5242288
MROMarathon Oil Corp15.095.5756.1411/16/2015
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The42.975.4966.739/16/2015
SESpectra Energy Corp27.285.4385.2742349
ETREntergy Corp62.685.363.3542288
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc62.815.25221.5542135
MURMurphy Oil Corp26.785.2323.0642288
NAVINavient Corp12.455.1421.7842259
PPLPPL Corp29.675.0961.8642259
SOSouthern Co/The42.715.0895.0442135
ORealty Income Corp45.085.07213.239/29/2015
PMPhilip Morris International Inc79.475.0381.619/28/2015
VZVerizon Communications Inc45.734.9489.1842195
DUKDuke Energy Corp68.344.8390.5711/18/2015
GMGeneral Motors Co30.154.7868.7642320
NOVNational Oilwell Varco Inc38.644.7628.6942259
FEFirstEnergy Corp30.594.71283.9442105
POMPepco Holdings Inc23.054.69112.442320
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc37.494.69145.7911/18/2015
COHCoach Inc29.444.5992.5742197
WYWeyerhaeuser Co27.324.5472.4310/28/2015
JOYJoy Global Inc17.694.5222.6442047
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts Inc17.744.5177.49/28/2015
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp66.94.48#VALUE!42259
STXSeagate Technology PLC48.944.4138.1342074
FFord Motor Co13.714.3861.2510/28/2015
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc15.494.3377.8610/28/2015
MOAltria Group Inc52.594.377.9412/22/2015
PLDPrologis Inc37.234.3107.49/16/2015
CATCaterpillar Inc72.634.2445.110/15/2015
AEEAmeren Corp38.824.2366.5442197
SCGSCANA Corp51.554.2355.3942289
RIGTransocean Ltd14.244.21#VALUE!42319
KIMKimco Realty Corp234.17118.9442014
EXCExelon Corp29.74.1766.5211/17/2015
EDConsolidated Edison Inc62.394.1767.5911/16/2015
CCICrown Castle International Corp78.634.17179.329/16/2015
EMREmerson Electric Co46.044.0856.3611/18/2015
KLACKLA-Tencor Corp51.214.06819.9242349
XOMExxon Mobil Corp72.694.0235.5742258
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp59.793.9864.5910/29/2015
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc39.323.9749.3342197
ETNEaton Corp PLC55.723.9551.8342135
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc53.783.9461.0842288
ESVEnsco PLC15.483.88#VALUE!42289
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The68.423.8885.110/21/2015
XELXcel Energy Inc33.163.8659.569/15/2015
DTEDTE Energy Co75.943.8552.499/17/2015
IPInternational Paper Co41.643.84109.1811/13/2015
DOWDow Chemical Co/The43.783.8452.199/28/2015
WECWEC Energy Group Inc47.883.8259.8242349
DDominion Resources Inc/VA67.763.82106.7511/23/2015
PCGPG&E Corp48.443.7660.039/24/2015
NINiSource Inc16.613.7361.1610/28/2015
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV83.773.7233.5711/19/2015
GEGeneral Electric Co24.953.6958.329/17/2015
PAYXPaychex Inc45.713.6881.7642046
PBIPitney Bowes Inc20.433.6750.5311/18/2015
ESEversource Energy46.093.6260.5942259
VIABViacom Inc44.283.6122.7612/15/2015
CACA Inc27.723.6154.8111/24/2015
AESAES Corp/VA11.133.5918.0510/29/2015
KSSKohl's Corp50.743.5536.5642136
CMSCMS Energy Corp32.673.5561.3642105
NUENucor Corp42.123.54709/28/2015
IBMInternational Business Machines Corp147.373.5327.342105
QCOMQUALCOMM Inc54.663.5134.8811/25/2015
MACMacerich Co/The74.23.523.9742258
MCDMcDonald's Corp97.413.4967.611/27/2015
KOCoca-Cola Co/The38.133.4676.0811/25/2015
MRKMerck & Co Inc52.093.4643.2642320
SPLSStaples Inc13.863.46228.629/23/2015
SPGSimon Property Group Inc179.143.46116.3111/16/2015
ABBVAbbVie Inc59.353.44157.3410/13/2015
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp53.433.4454.869/14/2015
RAIReynolds American Inc42.193.4199.3842289
PFEPfizer Inc32.973.473.6442105
WUWestern Union Co/The18.313.3931.119/14/2015
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp104.053.3885.2542259
GMEGameStop Corp42.783.3737.8511/27/2015
TETECO Energy Inc26.73.3796.5142288
PSAPublic Storage202.193.36106.2142289
GASAGL Resources Inc613.3441.4611/18/2015
AIVApartment Investment & Management Co36.143.3250.4511/18/2015
IVZInvesco Ltd32.883.2842.7611/18/2015
INTCIntel Corp29.473.2637.6742492
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc43.893.2677.6311/18/2015

Dividend Yield Is Only One Measurement

As you surely know, having a top paying name is absolutely great but there are many others things to consider. Holding a stock that can increase or at a minimum, hold its dividend payout steady is critical if you`re trying to build a sustainable portfolio. My business partner and I have a website dedicated to finding such stocks with sample portfolios and more. I’d love you to give us a try here🙂

Still Alive! And Closing 2 Trades

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 09.14.2015 (3:00 am)

Good morning to all of you. First off, a big apology as I have been basically missing from this blog for a few months now. I’m not really going to try to explain, it was nothing tragic or that would be that interesting to write about:) Just being extremely busy with work, family, the kids, some travelling, etc:) I’ve not only been basically missing from this blog but have also not been trading much. And it’s been one of those tough years in the markets as well, especially in the technology sector which is not ideal given my higher than average exposure to the sector. Despite that, my bigger positions, Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB) and TripAdvisor (TRIP) continue to do pretty well. Here is the YTD chart for those 3 compared with SPY:



TRIP is trailing but overall but they’re outperforming greatly. One thing that has not really recovered (yet) is the my long & short tech stock picks portfolio. It is more or less flat since the last update at -11% YTD and it’s certainly not looking good to extend my streak for another year. Especially given the fact that in recent years I’ve stopped adding new trades after the end of August. Given how little I’ve traded in the past few months, I’ll extend trading for an additional month this year. I’ll hopefully be able to open a few new trades and who knows, the performance might improve (or not!).

Before doing that, I will be closing 2 of the existing trades:

Long Google (GOOG) and Short eBay (EBAY)+Paypal (PYPL): This trade is actually standing at +13,4% but had been started as a GOOG vs EBAY trade and when EBAY spun off PYPL, that affected the trade. I’ll close it this morning and could re-open a new trade involving these names in the near future but as a 1 long and 1 short:)

Long Apple (AAPL) and short Blue Nile (NILE): This trade is a bad one and currently stands at -33% with AAPL having a tough time this year while NILE has actually done very well.

You can also see all of those trades here:

I’ll do more commentary in the coming days and weeks on these names!