The last few days were not as great with Travelzoo (one of my short positions) rising a bit but the 6.27% return so far this year remains very solid. Today I’m opening a new trade between 2 stocks trading at comparable levels but that I have extremely different longer term views about.

As is always the case you can see my long & short trades (from 2015 but also past years) here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers for today’s trade, two high priced stocks:

The chart that I always look at is below and this time, it “could” indicate that Pandora is a better buy given comparable forward valuations but the big difference is that I think Pandora’s margins will remain extremely low over time so it would need a much bigger lead in order to justify its current valuation.

TRIP Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Long TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP)

No surprise that I’m buying TRIP again. I had closed an existing long position a week ago before the earnings and thus end up losing on a (very) big gain following the earnings release but overall, I think TRIP will continue to do extremely well and feel very comfortable holding it at these levels. I see very few if any threats to TripAdvisor. Its biggest online travel competitors are trying to expand but they’re not competing on TRIP’s “core offer” of online reviews & ratings. Priceline buying Kayak and Expedia buying Orbitz are good moves but pose no threat to TRIP in my opinion.

Next earnings release: May 6th 2015

Short Pandora Media Inc. (P)

Ah looking at the below chart is sad in a way. Why? I’ve been short Pandora over and over in the past few months but I still managed to miss out on much of Pandora’s decline, especially in the last month. I fear that I’m repeating myself but the bulk of my belief is that Pandora has a terrific service but is going against formidable competitors such as Spotify but also others like Apple, Google and Amazon that are willing to lose money over the long term in order to make their “ecosystems” more attractive. That is a big problem and as smart cars expand, it will become increasingly easy to access those competing services. I just don’t see how Pandora will be able to build a solid long term business and can’t possibly justify its current valuation.

Next earnings release: April 24th 2015

Disclaimer: Long position on TripAdvisor (TRIP) and I will open this trade on today’s open

Yesterday was a very good day (I’m closing my first trade) and the average trade return so far this year as shot up north of 7%. Of course, it’s still very early and things could (and will) change significantly but it’s obviously better to have a good start than a bad one (duh!).

As is always the case you can see my long & short trades (from 2015 but also past years) here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers for today’s trade, two high priced stocks:

The chart that I always tend to look at is once again to be used today and I do expect the clear trend here to continue with eBay’s revenues and earnings growth slowly moving down. Google is trickier to predict but I feel confident that it will be superior to EBAY’s.

GOOG Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Long Google Inc. (GOOG)

To say that I have blind confidence in Google would be a lie. Even after all these years, I do still struggle to get a clear picture of Google and what it is actually trying to do. In one way, Google is a simple company that generates advertising revenues from its search engine dominant position. But then you have all of these other products, the incredible Android position, Google X, etc. I do still think though that in the end, Google is able to generate significantly higher long term growth than a company like eBay which is priced at an identical forward P/E ratio.

Next earnings release: April 16th 2015

Short eBay Inc (EBAY)

eBay has been a fairly easy company to track in the past few years which I’ve been treating mostly as an online bank because that is where most of the growth & value is.  The fact that eBay has finally confirmed it would be spinning out Paypal in a few months is a positive but as I’ve mentioned in the past I think in a way it’s a little too late for Paypal to become what it once had an opportunity to become (the default “electronic” payment system).

Next earnings release: April 22nd 2015

Disclaimer: No positions on eBay (EBAY) or Google (GOOG) but I will open this trade on the open

Great news today as I’m closing my first long & short trade of the year. Two trades are currently over the +20% ratio but for now I will keep the long Apple (AAPL) & short AOL Inc. (AOL) trade live for now. This morning however I’ll be closing the trade that I did on January 9th where I went long TripAdvisor (TRIP) and short Blue Nile (NILE). Yesterday, NILE announced very disappointing results helping me in a big way. As much as I believe in the long term future of TripAdvisor, I was not terribly impressed with the last quarter earnings call and am a bit nervous about this week’s earnings so I prefer taking the gains here:)

TRIP data by YCharts

Today I’m opening a 6th trade, finally getting close to being fully invested:) There wasn’t much change last week and with the earnings season coming to an end, volatility will likely decrease significantly which is more than welcome.

As is always the case you can see my long & short trades (from 2015 but also past years) here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers for today’s trade, two high priced stocks:

With Rackspace being in such a high growth sector, you’d think that growth would be much higher but the below chart surprised me. Twitter has not been public very long so it’s still early to say how the company will be able to keep impressing investors:

TWTR Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Long Twitter (TWTR)

Ah Twitter has been absolutely fascinating to cover in the past couple of years. I’m a very active user (mostly as a reader) and it’s perhaps the app that I use the most on my phone. I think that in many ways, the company has been under-estimated from the very start. I’m not part of those that had doubts about Twitter’s ability to generate income but it’s still very nice to see that growth finally come in to play. It still boggles my mind though to understand why Twitter has struggled so much to grow its user base. It’s a complex product to use in some ways and is certainly a challenge to start off with compared to others like Facebook (FB) but you’d still think that after all these years, Twitter would have figured out ways to get more mainstream use. Hopefully that happens in the near future. It’s a very big problem but I still feel like it’s the only thing pulling back Twitter and have faith that they will figure it out. Can Twitter become an “ecosystem”? I have strong doubts but I also think the product is unique enough to remain relevant on all ecosystems. In the end, I’m not clear that this is a great buying point for Twitter bur if TWTR and RAX are both trading at almost identical forward P/E’s, it feels like a no brainer to me.

Next earnings release: April 29th 2015

Short Rackspace Inc. (RAX)

Rackspace is a very interesting company and while over the years I have become more positive about it, I remain very sceptical of a company that will have trouble distinguishing itself in a world with extreme competition. Yes, the cloud hosting/computing area is an extremely fast growing one but it’s also one where Rackspace is competing with the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Box, etc. RAX has been up and down and my primary fear of course are the on and off rumours that RAX could end up selling itself.

Next earnings release: February 17th 2015

Disclaimer: No positions on Twitter (TWTR) or Rackspace (RAX) but I will open this trade on the open

Today I will be opening a 5th tech stock long & short pick with the portfolio up 3.63% so far this year. After a more difficult start to the year, things are now back and my overall picks are back in the black. Today’s stock pick might look a bit odd as there is very little in common between Facebook and Travelzoo. It’s more of a case of buying a stock I like and shorting one that does seem overvalued at these levels. It’s probably not by luck that one seems like it’s on the cutting edge of where the web is and even where it’s headed while the other seems stuck in a world where Groupon (GRPN) was king.

As is always the case you can see my long & short trades (from 2015 but also past years) here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers for today’s trade:

Nothing shock here as Facebook has been performing drastically better than Travelzoo in the past few years:

Long Facebook (FB)

Facebook is my biggest single stock holding at this point and I continue to think it’s being managed in such a clever way. While Facebook could do much better in the short term, it continues to focus on user growth and user experience for most of its properties such as Instagram, WhatsApp, FB Messenger, etc. Revenues and profits have still increased significantly thanks to Facebook’s continued success in mobile but overall, I think Facebook continues to work extremely hard on securing its position as an “ecosystem”.  There has been very little upside in the past few earnings calls because of the surprise in spending growth but if you think about how early we are in this whole cycle, it makes a lot of sense for Facebook to continue focusing on the long term growth. I do think that if you consider both Facebook and Travelzoo are trading at comparable forward P/E’s, it’s no a brainer which of the two I prefer owning.

Next earnings release: April 23rd 2015

Short Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)

Well, not shocking to see that Travelzoo has been performing badly. There is little optimism about the company in general. It’s business model has remained fairly stable in the past few years as the companies continues to work on building a mailing list that it can send great travel offers to on a daily/weekly basis. I don’t see much of a transition to mobile or building a community, two of the critical areas to compete with the other big online travel players.

Traffic based on most data that I’m seeing is down. Look at this chart from Compete.com:

It doesn’t look promising and I’d have a tough time trying to imagine Travelzoo’s overall numbers increasing in the next few quarters.

Next earnings release: April 17th 2015

Disclaimer: Long Facebook (FB) and will be opening this trade on today’s open

Last month, in my monthly top dividend update, I looked into TransOcean (RIG) which was at the top of the rankings in terms of top dividend payers in the S&P500. Well guess what, that has not changed. In fact, an increasing number of energy sector names have climbed near the top of these rankings. Like RIG, it is mostly driven by poor fundamentals. Let’s face it, the price of oil has been declining so quickly that many of these companies will face serious challenges. Already, Bonterra Energy (BNE.TO) in Canada just announced it was cutting its dividend by 50%. In much of the analysis of Exxon (XOM), analysts were discussing the possibility of Exxon pausing its dividend increases if the price of oil does not recover in the coming months.

I personally would be careful with having too much exposure to the energy sector in the coming weeks/months even though it will attract a very solid dividend yield. Would you go all in with oil names at this price betting on a rebound?

Here is the full list!

Potential?

Are there names on this list that you like or that you are currently considering?

After a more difficult start to the year, things are now back and my overall picks are back in the black. Today I’m back with my 4th pick, I’ll try to pick up the pace a bit. Apple has been a very big help in getting things back thanks to its record breaking earnings that took the stock to its all-time high.

You can see my long & short trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers for today’s trade:

Here is a chart that I always like considering, especially for 2 stocks that are trading at very comparable P/E ratios, as you see Microsoft clearly has had superior growth in the past 2 years:

MSFT Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Long Microsoft (MSFT)

These days, Ben Thompson (Stratechery) has been critical in helping me get a better grasp of what Microsoft has been doing, what it should be doing, etc. Overall, I feel like they are doing much better than the market seems to be giving it credit for. I personally don’t consider the last earnings report anywhere near bad enough to justify that kind of drop and I do expect that to continue.

Next earnings release: April 23rd 2015

Short Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE)

Both Adobe and Microsoft are facing a similar challenge as they attempt to change a software business from an “acquisition” customer base to a “subscription/ongoing” business. That started earlier at Adobe and for the most part has been a success but the growth remains fairly low and I don’t think expect that to change. The fact is that Adobe faces a very difficult environment and a lot of competition, which is also true for MSFT but that Nadella led company has a very strong presence in the still important (for enterprise especially) pc world. I don’t see anything that justifies Adobe having a higher forward P/E and feel very good about this new trade.

Next earnings release: March 17th 2015

Disclaimer: No positions on either MSFT or ADBE but I will initiate this trade on the open today