Archive for April, 2010

Quick news – April 30 2010

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.30.2010 (6:49 pm)

Valueclick (VCLK) raised to buy by  Merriman Curhnan Ford & Co  and by ThinkEquity
Apple (AAPL) stores now ready for the launch of the 3G Ipad
Google (GOOG) may announce Google TV on May 19

Valueclick (VCLK) raised to buy by  Merriman Curhnan Ford & Co and by ThinkEquity
Apple (AAPL) stores now ready for the launch of the 3G Ipad 
Google (GOOG) mayu announce Google TV on May 19

Time to sell Adobe (ADBE) shares???

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.30.2010 (6:02 am)

Adobe is a software company known mainly for two of its core products; Adobe photoshop and Adobe Flash. Flash is the language behind most of the videos viewed on the web right now, it is a language that was adopted early on by some of the major industry players such as Youtube. Generally, the company has been very quiet and has little competition in its very specialized segments. So how in the world did it end up with Apple (AAPL) as an enemy? Having one of the biggest and fastest growing companies in the tech space write a post describing why it will not support Adobe’s technology is certainly not a good sign for Adobe. That is exactly what happened today on Apple’s blog as Steve Jobs wrote a long post explaining exactly why Apple does not and does not intend to support Flash for its Ipod/Iphone/Ipad business. There are workarounds for specific applications such as Youtube but Apple has complete control over these workarounds and could change them at any moment in time.

The arguments are convincing and it will be interesting to see what Adobe’s response will be. They have been very vocal about their frustration regarding Apple so it would be surprising to not get a reply from Adobe. That being said, how much does this hurt Adobe? In reality, I would say not that much. It will certainly hurt the Flash revenues but those are not a major part of Adobe’s revenues. However, I think it could be seen as a similar situation as Apple vs Amazon where Adobe could be losing focus if it spends too much energy in this battle.

But what is actually happening?

The facts are simple. If Apple continues to refuse to support Flash in its devices, developers will be forced to work on alternatives as Apple continues to gain market shares. Those alternative languages are already very viable options and I would be very surprised if Flash didn’t lose some “market share” in the coming months because of the Apple problem. Sad? Absolutely. But unfortunately, especially after such an email, there does not seem to be much that can be done.

So is it a good investment?

The more worrying trend in my opinion about Adobe is its valuation, just take a look at the numbers below and you will see what I mean. A company that has negative growth should not sell for such a high valuation.

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
EBAYeBay Inc25.6110.313.329.7411.563.5616.260.8810/14/201514.3114.876.07
FBFacebook Inc92.95797.534.8822.4758.364.6714.020.8510/28/20154.7758.4N/A
EXPEExpedia Inc124.8835.4722.0748.8620.83.8616.351.1410/29/201544.7114.981.95
NILEBlue Nile Inc32.9739.6523.48-6.415.224.140.770.710/30/201538.998.446.53

So the bottom line, should Adobe (ADBE) be sold? I don’t think the recent news and blog post by Apple should be the reason to do so. But at its current valuation, I will certainly keep it in my mind in my future stock picks.

Quick news – April 29 2010

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.29.2010 (5:36 pm)

Palm (PALM) raised to hold by Morgan Joseph, downgraded to hold by MKM Partners
AOL (AOL) cut to neutral at Miller Tabak + Co
Google (GOOG) won a ruling against Rosetta Stone (RST) in a ruling about trademark infringement
Expedia (EXPE) reported earnings of 0.26$ vs 0.23$ estimates
Monster Worldwide (MWW) announced guidance of a loss of 0.06-0.02$/share for Q2 vs estimates of a loss of 0.02$/share
Valueclick (VCLK) reported earnings of 0.14$/share vs 0.10$/share estimate
Valueclick (VCLK) announced guidance of 0.16-0.17$/share for Q2 vs estimates of 0.18$

HP (HPQ) buys Palm (PALM) – what it means for the smartphone market

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.29.2010 (5:48 am)

It was well known that Palm was in financial trouble. With dwindling revenues and a very very tough market, it had very few weapons compared with Apple’s Iphone as well as the numerous phones powered by Google’s Android operating system. The US smartphone market quickly shrank from 4 major players (Google, Apple, Microsoft and Palm) to 3 and things were only getting worse for Palm. The problem of course when things are not going well financially is that suddenly your partners become less interested in doing business with you. That happened for Palm as it saw partners such as Verizon or resellers like Radio Shack threaten and in some cases stop selling the Palm phones.

I would expect such to more or less stop happening now that HP is behind the smartphone maker. HP does have power and a solid reputation which should be enough to both give confidence to Palm’s partners but also put some fear of having the major Sillicon Valley company as an enemy.

But the phone does not change

TechCrunch has reported that HP intends on keeping the WebOS operating system, seen by many as the biggest asset on Palm phones. That is good but it will also put much pressure on HP to come up with a strategy to compete with Apple and Google. In both cases, the major advantage seems to be in the applications available to those who use the system. While the number of apps available can be intimidating, the overall quality of apps available on Android and the Iphone is just beyond anything Palm can rival right now. And that will not change anytime soon unfortunately for Palm & HP,

Why it won’t change….

Since the apps are not driven by the companies but rather by private developers and companies, the environment needs to be attractive for them to work on your platform. And an environment that has a small and decreasing number of users is far from being attractive. Why work on an application for Palm when a successful app on Apple will generate 10 or 20 x the revenues. The competition is more fierce of course but in general that does not scare the best developers. Which means that those working on Palm apps are not the best, which in the end translates into an inferior user experience.

Is there anything to be done?

It is not game over yet. Google has proved how quickly it was possible to enter the market and in my opinion, it is all about giving incentives for developers. This could be done with major contests, offering cash prizes for the best applications or most downloaded apps, etc, etc. There are many possible ideas but I certainly think that Palm has more of a chance with HP backing it than it had on its own. It did not have the money or time to dedicate to a battle with Apple, Google & Microsoft. Now it does….

Quick news – April 28 2010

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.28.2010 (3:22 pm)

Baidu (BIDU) announced earnings of $2.10 per share
HP (HPQ) is buying Palm (PALM) for $1.2 billion
Baidu (BIDU) rated as “buy” by Brean Murray
AOL (AOL) profit drops 58%
AOL (AOL) announces it is selling ICQ
Dice Holdings (DHX) revenues decline 9% year-over-year to $26.8 million, income of $3.3 million
Netflix (NFLX) is ready to go global
Apple (AAPL) buys Intrinsity, a maker of fast chips
Quinstreet (QNST) rated as “buy” by Needham & Co.
Microsoft (MSFT) says Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system may infringe patents

How to play the Greece collapse?

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.28.2010 (5:53 am)

If you have been anywhere near a computer, a tv or a newspaper (yes, they do still exist), you know that the situation in Europe is getting worse very fast. Today, Greek’s debt was downgraded to “junk” status with Portugal also having a downgrade of its own done by S&P. There have been many articles about the causes and consequences of such a collapse and I would personally recommend John Mauldin’s newsletter for the most “in depth” and interesting analysis. All of this is happening very fast and talk of a bubble even greater than the credit bubble that hit the world economy just a few months ago cannot be ignored. The fact is that Greece is far from being the only country with massive deficits and no easy way out of its huge debt problems. Will all of this result in the end of the Euro currency & Euro economic zone? It’s probably still very unlikely, but it does not look like the Black Swan it once was. It’s not that difficult to imagine a scenario where a few European countries get in major trouble and the Euro tumbles.

But there is also that possibility of a massive bail-out either by the richer nations such as Germany & France or by an international organization such as the IMF. So basically, volatility is back until this crisis gets resolved one way or another.

I thought I would like into a few of the ETF’s that would be good ways to play the crisis. Please note that since these strategies are short term ones, leveraged ETF’s could be very viable ways to play this.

Country or Region ETF’s:

It’s easy to imagine how having a short ETF on Greece could be the perfection investment. Unfortunately, no ETF on Greece exists, either long or short. So you have two options. Either using single country ETF’s on highly correlated countries. Spain and Italy are two that could follow Greece if things went wrong in Europe. You can also buy leveraged short ETF’s on Europe. Here are a few possibilities:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg GrowthSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPLApple Inc128.4617.313.916.766.954.3321.170.8430.0439.3248.25N/AN/A
NILEBlue Nile Inc29.9837.1225.46-


The Euro has already lost much of its value but many analysts expect the Euro to fall much further still. You can buy EUO, which is a leveraged short bet on the Euro.

TickerNameSharesMar 18 PricesMar 18 Values
OMCOmnicom Group Inc34$78.13$2,656.42
MSFTMicrosoft Corp77$42.50$3,272.50
JCIJohnson Controls Inc45$50.28$2,262.60
PEPPepsiCo Inc/NC33$94.64$3,123.12
ETNEaton Corp36$68.52$2,466.72
DOVDover Corp29$72.10$2,090.90
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc31$99.81$3,094.11
XLNXXilinx Inc42$41.60$1,747.20
SJMJM Smucker Co/The24$112.61$2,702.64
BLKBlackRock Inc16$377.76$6,044.16
TROWT Rowe Price Group Inc34$83.88$2,851.92
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp27$74.01$1,998.27
CRCCalifornia Resources10$7.08$70.80
XOMExxon Mobil Corp24$86.07$2,065.68
ADIAnalog Devices Inc49$59.67$2,923.83
HASHasbro Inc34$61.43$2,088.62
MATMattel Inc48$23.96$1,150.08
BAXBaxter International29$68.55$1,987.95
IVZInvesco Ltd72$41.78$3,008.16
TXNTexas Instruments Inc35$58.30$2,040.50
VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets62$40.94$2,538.28
BNDVanguard Total Bond Market39$83.35$3,250.65


If things turn sour in Europe, volatility across the world will increase so buying VXX would likely be a good way to play the crisis.

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-DvdDSR score
NENoble Corp plc14.2810.51N/A05/07/201524
MATMattel Inc22.856.65104.035/18/201529
CTLCenturyLink Inc34.556.26159.4606/04/20158
FTRFrontier Communications Corp7.055.96308.7306/09/20157
TAT&T Inc32.655.76154.7107/08/201525
PMPhilip Morris International Inc75.335.3181.616/23/201553
HCPHCP Inc43.215.23113.3105/07/201563.5
IRMIron Mountain Inc36.485.21321.436/24/201536
OKEONEOK Inc48.245.02139.174/29/201534
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc20.414.8566.785/15/201565
WYNNWynn Resorts Ltd125.884.7786.235/21/201555
SOSouthern Co/The44.284.7495.044/30/201548.5
TETECO Energy Inc19.44.6496.515/14/20152.5
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The50.594.5966.7306/10/201543
VZVerizon Communications Inc48.634.5289.1807/08/201545
PPLPPL Corp33.664.4361.8606/10/201562
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc15.24.3477.864/29/201567.5
VTRVentas Inc73.024.33191.4106/08/201540
GRMNGarmin Ltd47.524.29101.86/13/201634.5
ETREntergy Corp77.494.2863.3505/12/201533.5
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE42.064.28194.914/29/201542.5
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc77.364.26221.5505/07/201546
EDConsolidated Edison Inc614.2667.595/18/201537
MOAltria Group Inc50.024.1677.946/15/201557.5
STXSeagate Technology PLC52.034.1535.8505/01/201555
DUKDuke Energy Corp76.784.1490.575/20/201545
FEFirstEnergy Corp35.064.11283.9408/05/20154
GASAGL Resources Inc49.654.1141.465/13/201577.5
SESpectra Energy Corp36.174.0985.2705/06/201560
RIGTransocean Ltd14.674.09#VALUE!5/27/201517
CVXChevron Corp104.984.0841.25/13/201576
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc43.454.05145.795/20/201516
LOLorillard Inc65.354.0474.8906/03/201572
HPHelmerich & Payne Inc68.074.0437.525/13/201592.5
POMPepco Holdings Inc26.834.03112.406/10/2015-7.5
SCGSCANA Corp54.993.9655.3906/11/201563
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts Inc20.183.9677.46/29/201559
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp733.94#VALUE!06/10/201545.5
RAIReynolds American Inc68.913.8999.3806/11/201547.5
AEEAmeren Corp42.23.8966.5406/08/201528.5
GMGeneral Motors Co37.53.8468.7606/12/201553
GMEGameStop Corp37.963.7937.855/29/201574.5
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc72.023.7878.635/29/20151
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc56.253.7761.0805/08/201556
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp63.753.7364.594/30/201549.5
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc41.923.7249.3306/08/201545
FFord Motor Co16.143.7261.254/28/201540
GEGeneral Electric Co24.813.7158.326/18/201561.5
EXCExelon Corp33.613.6966.525/15/201522
NOVNational Oilwell Varco Inc49.993.6828.6906/10/201589
XELXcel Energy Inc34.813.6859.566/16/201574
DDominion Resources Inc/VA70.873.65106.755/27/201522
KIMKimco Realty Corp26.853.58118.946/29/201536
WINWindstream Holdings Inc7.43.56#VALUE!6/26/20154
CATCaterpillar Inc80.033.545.14/16/201573
WYWeyerhaeuser Co33.153.572.4306/03/201560.5
DOWDow Chemical Co/The47.983.552.196/29/201575
MCDMcDonald's Corp97.443.4967.65/30/201546.5
ABBVAbbVie Inc58.543.49157.344/13/201528.5
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp53.283.4554.866/15/201572
KLACKLA-Tencor Corp58.293.4351.295/14/201528
PCGPG&E Corp53.073.4360.036/29/201546.5
DTEDTE Energy Co80.693.4252.496/18/201581
WECWisconsin Energy Corp49.53.4159.825/13/201569
CMSCMS Energy Corp34.913.3261.3605/06/201558.5
EMREmerson Electric Co56.623.3256.365/13/201570
ESEversource Energy50.523.3160.595/29/201583
PLDPrologis Inc43.563.31107.406/08/201547
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp107.113.2985.2506/10/201520
CVCCablevision Systems Corp18.33.2851.455/14/201541
COHCoach Inc41.433.2647.8806/04/201557
KOCoca-Cola Co/The40.553.2676.086/17/201549.5
XOMExxon Mobil Corp853.2535.5705/07/201576
ETNEaton Corp PLC67.943.2451.8305/07/201589.5
PFEPfizer Inc34.793.2273.6305/06/201539.5
MROMarathon Oil Corp26.113.2256.145/18/201541
PBIPitney Bowes Inc23.323.2250.5305/06/2015-6
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV87.83.1933.575/19/201556
SYYSysco Corp37.733.1872.3107/01/201538.5
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc69.343.17157.3707/06/201536
NAVINavient Corp20.333.1521.7806/03/2015N/A
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The81.943.14614/22/201541
MRKMerck & Co Inc57.483.1343.2606/11/201556.5
NUENucor Corp47.533.13706/26/201555
GISGeneral Mills Inc56.63.1153.4107/06/201556.5
MACMacerich Co/The84.333.0823.9705/06/201561
INTCIntel Corp31.273.0737.6708/03/201580
CACA Inc32.613.0750.395/26/201556
PAYXPaychex Inc49.6153.0681.3705/08/201549.5
CSCOCisco Systems Inc27.5253.0547.856/30/201580
MSFTMicrosoft Corp40.6553.05425/19/201584
BAXBaxter International Inc68.53.0457.106/03/201574
UPSUnited Parcel Service Inc96.943.0182.035/14/201556.5
MURMurphy Oil Corp46.6323.065/15/201557
KKellogg Co65.952.97107.635/29/201520
NEENextEra Energy Inc104.052.9651.1106/04/201572
LMTLockheed Martin Corp202.962.9648.125/28/201559
SPLSStaples Inc16.2852.95228.626/24/201510
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc48.92.9271.145/18/201554

Sovereign Debt

While Fixed income ETF’s have gained a lot of popularity and are becoming a lot more important, the variety available is still small and there are no ETF’s on Greek or even European sovereign debt. But selling PCY could be a good alternative as chances are that all sovereign debt would be hit in case of a European collapse, not just Europe’s:

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Dvd
CTLCenturyLink Inc26.288.22159.4642075
FTRFrontier Communications Corp5.327.89308.7342259
OKEONEOK Inc35.196.88139.1742105
MATMattel Inc22.66.73104.0311/23/2015
IRMIron Mountain Inc28.386.69321.439/23/2015
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE30.16.51194.9110/30/2015
HCPHCP Inc36.096.26113.3142135
VTRVentas Inc52.666192.1512/17/2015
TAT&T Inc32.725.75154.7142195
GRMNGarmin Ltd35.895.68101.86/13/2016
CVXChevron Corp75.795.6541.211/18/2015
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc17.695.666.7811/16/2015
HPHelmerich & Payne Inc49.355.5737.5242288
MROMarathon Oil Corp15.095.5756.1411/16/2015
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The42.975.4966.739/16/2015
SESpectra Energy Corp27.285.4385.2742349
ETREntergy Corp62.685.363.3542288
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc62.815.25221.5542135
MURMurphy Oil Corp26.785.2323.0642288
NAVINavient Corp12.455.1421.7842259
PPLPPL Corp29.675.0961.8642259
SOSouthern Co/The42.715.0895.0442135
ORealty Income Corp45.085.07213.239/29/2015
PMPhilip Morris International Inc79.475.0381.619/28/2015
VZVerizon Communications Inc45.734.9489.1842195
DUKDuke Energy Corp68.344.8390.5711/18/2015
GMGeneral Motors Co30.154.7868.7642320
NOVNational Oilwell Varco Inc38.644.7628.6942259
FEFirstEnergy Corp30.594.71283.9442105
POMPepco Holdings Inc23.054.69112.442320
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc37.494.69145.7911/18/2015
COHCoach Inc29.444.5992.5742197
WYWeyerhaeuser Co27.324.5472.4310/28/2015
JOYJoy Global Inc17.694.5222.6442047
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts Inc17.744.5177.49/28/2015
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp66.94.48#VALUE!42259
STXSeagate Technology PLC48.944.4138.1342074
FFord Motor Co13.714.3861.2510/28/2015
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc15.494.3377.8610/28/2015
MOAltria Group Inc52.594.377.9412/22/2015
PLDPrologis Inc37.234.3107.49/16/2015
CATCaterpillar Inc72.634.2445.110/15/2015
AEEAmeren Corp38.824.2366.5442197
SCGSCANA Corp51.554.2355.3942289
RIGTransocean Ltd14.244.21#VALUE!42319
KIMKimco Realty Corp234.17118.9442014
EXCExelon Corp29.74.1766.5211/17/2015
EDConsolidated Edison Inc62.394.1767.5911/16/2015
CCICrown Castle International Corp78.634.17179.329/16/2015
EMREmerson Electric Co46.044.0856.3611/18/2015
KLACKLA-Tencor Corp51.214.06819.9242349
XOMExxon Mobil Corp72.694.0235.5742258
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp59.793.9864.5910/29/2015
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc39.323.9749.3342197
ETNEaton Corp PLC55.723.9551.8342135
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc53.783.9461.0842288
ESVEnsco PLC15.483.88#VALUE!42289
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The68.423.8885.110/21/2015
XELXcel Energy Inc33.163.8659.569/15/2015
DTEDTE Energy Co75.943.8552.499/17/2015
IPInternational Paper Co41.643.84109.1811/13/2015
DOWDow Chemical Co/The43.783.8452.199/28/2015
WECWEC Energy Group Inc47.883.8259.8242349
DDominion Resources Inc/VA67.763.82106.7511/23/2015
PCGPG&E Corp48.443.7660.039/24/2015
NINiSource Inc16.613.7361.1610/28/2015
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV83.773.7233.5711/19/2015
GEGeneral Electric Co24.953.6958.329/17/2015
PAYXPaychex Inc45.713.6881.7642046
PBIPitney Bowes Inc20.433.6750.5311/18/2015
ESEversource Energy46.093.6260.5942259
VIABViacom Inc44.283.6122.7612/15/2015
CACA Inc27.723.6154.8111/24/2015
AESAES Corp/VA11.133.5918.0510/29/2015
KSSKohl's Corp50.743.5536.5642136
CMSCMS Energy Corp32.673.5561.3642105
NUENucor Corp42.123.54709/28/2015
IBMInternational Business Machines Corp147.373.5327.342105
QCOMQUALCOMM Inc54.663.5134.8811/25/2015
MACMacerich Co/The74.23.523.9742258
MCDMcDonald's Corp97.413.4967.611/27/2015
KOCoca-Cola Co/The38.133.4676.0811/25/2015
MRKMerck & Co Inc52.093.4643.2642320
SPLSStaples Inc13.863.46228.629/23/2015
SPGSimon Property Group Inc179.143.46116.3111/16/2015
ABBVAbbVie Inc59.353.44157.3410/13/2015
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp53.433.4454.869/14/2015
RAIReynolds American Inc42.193.4199.3842289
PFEPfizer Inc32.973.473.6442105
WUWestern Union Co/The18.313.3931.119/14/2015
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp104.053.3885.2542259
GMEGameStop Corp42.783.3737.8511/27/2015
TETECO Energy Inc26.73.3796.5142288
PSAPublic Storage202.193.36106.2142289
GASAGL Resources Inc613.3441.4611/18/2015
AIVApartment Investment & Management Co36.143.3250.4511/18/2015
IVZInvesco Ltd32.883.2842.7611/18/2015
INTCIntel Corp29.473.2637.6742492
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc43.893.2677.6311/18/2015


Some areas, such as financials in Europe, would suffer greatly, here are some options:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg GrowthSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPLApple Inc113.4513.1511.654.466.954.4122.031.0610/20/201530.0428.7836.91N/AN/A
FITFitbit Inc40.72N/A41.76N/A174.984.063.18N/A11/05/20156.21N/AN/A11.5513.14
TRIPTripAdvisor Inc68.6447.0926.13-7.9831.93.418.611.6310/22/20158.7126.58N/A-0.92N/A
TWTRTwitter Inc27.92N/A46.14-22.69111.013.586.270.7910/27/20152.32N/AN/AN/AN/A
TZOOTravelzoo Inc9.263.0234.79-27.5-
YHOOYahoo! Inc30.7442.6146.49-39.34-1.334.2735.681.1710/21/20154.68-4.15N/AN/AN/A

These are the main ways I could think of, but I would love to hear other ideas on how to profit from the Greece problems with ETF’s.

Quick news – April 27 2010

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.27.2010 (3:32 pm)

Google (GOOG) paid $25 million to acquire LabPixies, an Israel based start-up which develops gadgets
Research in Motion (RIMM) was raised to “Buy” by GMP
Could Research in Motion (RIMM) make a bid for Palm (PALM) ?

Real Estate ETF’s

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.27.2010 (5:00 am)

Real Estate has been at the center of debates of discussions for the past few years. It is critical to the US recovery as it has a very critical impact on the spending of the US consumer. That is why the US government created so many incentives to help get prices stable but also because it was viewed as a critical part of the recovery.

Now that the US economy is back growing, two major forces will influence real estate prices:

End of government subsidies: How much impact will the end of the major stimulus programs have? Difficult to estimate but they will no doubt have an impact

Jobs being created: With the economy recovery comes new jobs which will create more demand from 1st time house buyers, will these jobs bring back price growth?

The good point is that no matter where you think real estate prices are headed, there are good alternatives for you? You can go long, short, leveraged 2 times or even 3 times, on one side or the other. As you can see, so far it has been very profitable this year to be long real estate. Take a look at the possibilities here:

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Dvd
WINWindstream Holdings Inc7.8912.67250.773/27/2015
NENoble Corp plc16.649.0125.205/07/2015
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc21.635.7884.824/16/2015
MATMattel Inc26.325.78103.285/18/2015
CTLCenturyLink Inc37.865.7159.4603/04/2015
OKEONEOK Inc44.265.47139.174/29/2015
TAT&T Inc34.565.44154.7104/01/2015
HCPHCP Inc42.365.34113.3105/07/2015
FTRFrontier Communications Corp7.985.26301.6703/10/2015
IRMIron Mountain Inc36.755.17213.9103/04/2015
PMPhilip Morris International Inc82.964.8281.613/24/2015
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc20.794.7666.85/15/2015
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The49.044.7366.7303/11/2015
TETECO Energy Inc19.634.5995.125/14/2015
SOSouthern Co/The45.794.5994.3402/12/2015
VZVerizon Communications Inc49.454.4589.1804/08/2015
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE41.014.39194.914/29/2015
PPLPPL Corp34.14.3761.8603/06/2015
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc15.134.3619.264/29/2015
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc77.114.28221.5505/07/2015
VTRVentas Inc74.474.24191.4103/04/2015
WYNNWynn Resorts Ltd142.54.2186.235/21/2015
ETREntergy Corp79.514.1863.3505/12/2015
SESpectra Energy Corp35.494.1785.2705/06/2015
GASAGL Resources Inc49.114.1641.465/13/2015
FEFirstEnergy Corp34.984.12283.9405/04/2015
EDConsolidated Edison Inc63.144.1267.595/18/2015
GRMNGarmin Ltd49.634.11101.803/12/2015
HPHelmerich & Payne Inc67.064.137.525/15/2015
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc43.444.05145.325/20/2015
DUKDuke Energy Corp78.554.0590.575/20/2015
CVXChevron Corp106.684.0141.202/12/2015
POMPepco Holdings Inc27.143.98112.403/06/2015
AEEAmeren Corp42.413.8766.5403/09/2015
GMGeneral Motors Co37.313.8668.7603/09/2015
LOLorillard Inc68.423.8674.8906/03/2015
SCGSCANA Corp56.953.8355.3903/06/2015
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts Inc213.8177.43/27/2015
CCICrown Castle International Corp86.313.8179.323/18/2015
RIGTransocean Ltd16.133.7263.795/27/2015
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc42.063.7149.3303/06/2015
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp64.083.7164.594/30/2015
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp77.883.7#VALUE!03/06/2015
MOAltria Group Inc56.293.777.9403/12/2015
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc57.583.6861.0805/08/2015
FFord Motor Co16.343.6761.254/28/2015
EXCExelon Corp33.923.6666.525/15/2015
KIMKimco Realty Corp26.283.65118.9404/01/2015
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc74.733.6461.845/29/2015
XELXcel Energy Inc35.283.6359.563/13/2015
DDominion Resources Inc/VA72.093.59107.085/27/2015
GMEGameStop Corp36.973.5737.2103/05/2015
RAIReynolds American Inc75.623.5499.3803/06/2015
GEGeneral Electric Co25.993.5458.266/18/2015
STXSeagate Technology PLC61.123.5335.8505/01/2015
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp52.763.4954.833/16/2015
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc643.44157.3704/10/2015
MCDMcDonald's Corp98.93.4467.65/30/2015
KRFTKraft Foods Group Inc64.063.43122.243/30/2015
DOWDow Chemical Co/The49.243.4152.193/27/2015
NOVNational Oilwell Varco Inc54.353.3928.6903/11/2015
PCGPG&E Corp53.733.3960.033/27/2015
CATCaterpillar Inc82.93.3845.14/16/2015
PLDPrologis Inc42.713.37107.43/16/2015
ABBVAbbVie Inc60.53.37157.344/13/2015
DTEDTE Energy Co82.033.3652.4903/12/2015
WECWisconsin Energy Corp50.983.3259.825/13/2015
CMSCMS Energy Corp35.133.361.3605/06/2015
WYWeyerhaeuser Co35.113.372.4305/06/2015
PFEPfizer Inc34.323.2674.0205/06/2015
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV85.913.2633.575/19/2015
EMREmerson Electric Co57.923.2556.365/13/2015
PBIPitney Bowes Inc23.173.2450.5305/06/2015
ESEversource Energy51.753.2360.595/29/2015
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp109.663.2185.2503/04/2015
CVCCablevision Systems Corp18.783.1951.4503/12/2015
WUWestern Union Co/The19.523.1831.113/13/2015
NUENucor Corp47.033.1766.413/27/2015
XOMExxon Mobil Corp88.543.1235.5705/07/2015
MACMacerich Co/The83.653.1123.9705/06/2015
COHCoach Inc43.553.147.8803/04/2015
ETNEaton Corp PLC71.013.1003/05/2015
KLACKLA-Tencor Corp64.9553.0851.2902/12/2015
AESAES Corp/VA12.973.0843.114/29/2015
CACA Inc32.523.0850.395/26/2015
SYYSysco Corp38.993.0872.313/31/2015
MRKMerck & Co Inc58.543.0743.4803/12/2015
GISGeneral Mills Inc53.793.0553.4104/10/2015
KOCoca-Cola Co/The43.33.0576.0803/12/2015
PAYXPaychex Inc49.8353.0581.3705/08/2015
KKellogg Co64.483.04107.6303/04/2015
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The85.133.03614/22/2015
MROMarathon Oil Corp27.863.0256.145/18/2015
BAXBaxter International Inc69.153.0157.103/09/2015
LMTLockheed Martin Corp200.05348.125/28/2015
NAVINavient Corp21.42.99#VALUE!03/04/2015
NEENextEra Energy Inc103.462.9851.1106/04/2015
AIVApartment Investment & Management Co37.682.9751.425/20/2015
DNRDenbury Resources Inc8.42.9705/22/2015

Quick news – April 26 2010

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.26.2010 (3:40 pm)

Google (GOOG) Nexus One phone is now available at Vodafone stores in the UK
Apple (AAPL) is said to have sold 1M Ipad’s
Netflix (NFLX) gained over 8%, good news considering we just picked it:)
Research in Motion (RIMM) will debut a new operating system and web browser in the next quarter

New stock pick: Long Netflix (NFLX) & Short Blue Nile (NILE)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 04.26.2010 (5:00 am)

Since I am able to close out a trade this morning, it also means I can enter a new one. I am going with two companies that I have traded against each other with great success earlier this year. The main reason for the trade remains the valuation mismatch between the two. While Netflix (NFLX) has continued to show strong growth, especially compared with Blue Nile’s (NILE) fairly flat numbers, the ratios continue to not show this. The main reason probably is of course that Netflix faces very serious competition in online video while Blue Nile has little competition in its exact market (online jewelers). But, Netflix has been able to adapt far better than competitors in recent months, especially gearing up for consumers that use other devices such as Apple’s Ipad, or gaming consoles like the Wii or the XBox.

So I personally feel comfortable getting into this position, hoping that the growth of both companies remains stable, which would no doubt take Netflix higher.

Blue Nile is one of those companies that is difficult to figure out. It has a great business model and I would think that it would eventually be a great investment. But growth has not been anywhere close to what would justify P/E ratios close to 50. Just take a look at traffic estimates from, which show a 30% decrease in visitors for the past year, not exactly impressive:

And finally, take a look at stock charts for both companies: