Archive for January, 2010

Baidu now all alone????

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.19.2010 (5:00 am)

If you are anywhere on earth, you have heard by now about the stunning news announced by Google last Tuesday night. That it would be ending its current deal with the Chinese government in terms of internet censorship even if that means leaving China entirely. Very surpising given the fact that China is still the largest market in the world (in terms of numbers of course, not $$$) and that while Google does not have the lead yet, it did still have about 35% of market share, 2nd to China’s own Baidu(BIDU).

What will be the consequences?????

There have been many many articles about the impact of this major change on Google but it’s not as clear what this mans to Baidu. If you remember, I have been a fan of Baidu for a long time, as it performed over 200% last year and helped me win the stock picks competition. I also traded in and out of the Chinese search engine a few times. But unfortunately, at this time, I did not have a position on Baidu.
Too bad since the stock gained 13,7% in the first day and even more in following days!! Why??? Because this news is major help to Baidu on at least two levels:
-The obvious.. Outside of Google, Baidu had no real competition in China. Both of them make up 94% of the search share in China so having Google out of the picture (potentially) could mean a much easier life for Baidu at home and making it easier to compete abroad.
-But also, Baidu had problems with the Chinese government over a year ago over some legal issues. You can bet a lot that right now, China’s government will be putting a lot of effort into not only making life difficult for Google but also helping Baidu, which it has a lot more control and influence over. Baidu does not have the potential to cause as many problems to the Chinese government and in the wake of recent events, this is a major positive on its side.
As has been pointed out, Baidu continues to gain ground not only in China but on the world scene, it should soon overtake Yahoo as the world’s #2 search engine, see the graph below from emarketer.com

New trade: Long Netflix (NFLX)/Short Blue Nile(NILE)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.18.2010 (5:00 am)

Last week, I posted my opinion on Amazon and how it might lose a lot of ground when the Apple Tablet comes out. I had signaled I might be trading on this stock in today’s new trade. That is not happening after all. I did spent a lot of time looking into Amazon’s valuation and still think it’s expensive. But going short on a stock with so much momentum is dangerous and right now it does not sound like the right strategy.
So there I was looking for another trade and Blue Nile stuck out because of its very high P/E ratio. Now I have been burned by Blue Nile in the past so I took extra diligence this time around but I do feel comfortable with the position, mostly based on valuation. Blue Nile has been riding high for a long time now despite failing to deliver on expectations many times in past quarters.
Take a look comparing the sales/revenue growth of Blue Nile (NILE) and Netflix (NFLX) and you might see what I mean. I would expect both companies to trade at similar earning ratios yet it is far from being the case. Netflix has huge momentum and its recent deal with Nintento which will allow Wii users to stream Netflix videos is yet another sign of growth to come. Streaming Netflix videos are already available on Sony’s Playstation 3, Microsoft’s Xbox, as well as many web-enabled tv’s, Blu-Ray devices and more.
Quarterly sales growth (%)

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Dvd Date
WINWindstream Holdings Inc7.213.92356.153/27/2014
FTRFrontier Communications Corp4.429.01298.643/5/2014
TATransAlta Corp14.38.1N/A2/21/2014
CTLCenturyLink Inc28.137.67231.483/6/2014
DODiamond Offshore Drilling Inc47.77.3567.542/13/2014
CPGCrescent Point Energy Corp37.667.33488.532/26/2014
COSCanadian Oil Sands Ltd19.867.0481.292/19/2014
PWTPenn West Petroleum Ltd8.166.86294.253/26/2014
ESVEnsco PLC49.146.0928.613/13/2014
TAT&T Inc31.955.7453.244/8/2014
MOAltria Group Inc34.115.6281.113/14/2014
POMPepco Holdings Inc19.235.6187.023/6/2014
HCPHCP Inc38.835.6110.322/6/2014
ERFEnerplus Corp19.615.53N/A3/6/2014
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc57.495.53607.362/6/2014
TETECO Energy Inc16.265.3995.652/11/2014
RAIReynolds American Inc46.965.34103.63/7/2014
RIGTransocean Ltd42.475.2934.812/19/2014
ETREntergy Corp62.725.2869.572/11/2014
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc53.165.172.792/26/2014
BCEBCE Inc46.065.0665.513/14/2014
PMPhilip Morris International Inc75.394.9762.643/25/2014
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE33.324.92138.484/25/2014
SOSouthern Co/The41.254.91106.715/1/2014
NENoble Corp plc30.924.8624.312/6/2014
PPLPPL Corp30.494.8254.543/7/2014
EQREquity Residential54.84.75210.013/20/2014
VTRVentas Inc61.554.71238.423/7/2014
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc13.844.786.944/29/2014
EDConsolidated Edison Inc53.744.6862.32/10/2014
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc47.324.6464.094/8/2014
LOLorillard Inc48.144.5773.632/26/2014
VZVerizon Communications Inc46.414.5751.734/8/2014
FEFirstEnergy Corp31.254.57119.432/5/2014
SJR/BShaw Communications Inc24.414.5161.582/12/2014
BMOBank of Montreal67.624.546.864/29/2014
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce/Canada85.814.4844.493/26/2014
MACMacerich Co/The55.744.46111.532/19/2014
POTPotash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc34.994.4564.424/8/2014
NANational Bank of Canada83.24.4438.363/25/2014
DUKDuke Energy Corp70.464.43100.422/12/2014
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp51.284.475.484/29/2014
KIMKimco Realty Corp20.464.39356.183/31/2014
PCGPG&E Corp41.524.3895.713/28/2014
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc33.234.3356.313/7/2014
SCGSCANA Corp46.834.3361.83/11/2014
COPConocoPhillips63.864.3241.662/13/2014
EXCExelon Corp28.974.28147.722/12/2014
AEEAmeren Corp37.664.25N/A3/10/2014
ARXARC Resources Ltd28.494.21256.752/26/2014
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc42.034.2133.832/19/2014
FTSFortis Inc/Canada30.524.273.332/12/2014
MATMattel Inc36.054.255.082/18/2014
IRMIron Mountain Inc25.94.17196.453/19/2014
LEGLeggett & Platt Inc29.064.1389.993/12/2014
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc48.314.1364.172/6/2014
BNSBank of Nova Scotia60.594.1246.063/28/2014
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc23.054.1182.972/12/2014
GRMNGarmin Ltd43.634.1164.783/13/2014
KRFTKraft Foods Group Inc51.124.118.053/27/2014
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The39.334.08102.533/12/2014
SLFSun Life Financial Inc35.434.0761.122/24/2014
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc31.084.0284.824/11/2014
GASAGL Resources Inc46.933.9974.912/19/2014
RYRoyal Bank of Canada68.53.9445.24/23/2014
CMSCMS Energy Corp27.423.9359.82/5/2014
POWPower Corp of Canada29.63.9264.183/19/2014
XELXcel Energy Inc28.613.958.073/18/2014
DTEDTE Energy Co67.973.8562.013/20/2014
TRPTransCanada Corp48.283.8295.523/26/2014
CVCCablevision Systems Corp15.853.8483.893/12/2014
NEMNewmont Mining Corp21.023.836.873/14/2014
SESpectra Energy Corp35.343.7880.172/12/2014
AVBAvalonBay Communities Inc123.293.77932.943/27/2014
INTCIntel Corp23.953.7646.52/5/2014
AIVApartment Investment & Management Co27.723.76N/A2/12/2014
TTELUS Corp38.443.7560.353/5/2014
RCI/BRogers Communications Inc46.073.7547.353/12/2014
SPLSStaples Inc12.93.73N/A3/26/2014
LLYEli Lilly & Co52.663.7245.382/12/2014
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp47.613.762.473/17/2014
HSEHusky Energy Inc32.53.6959.733/5/2014
WECWisconsin Energy Corp42.193.6950.582/12/2014
GEGeneral Electric Co24.353.6153.212/20/2014
TDToronto-Dominion Bank/The47.893.6146.724/2/2014
LMTLockheed Martin Corp147.743.6522/27/2014
PSAPublic Storage155.863.59114.783/10/2014
CVXChevron Corp111.143.5934.92/12/2014
DDominion Resources Inc/VA67.123.5872.882/26/2014
WMWaste Management Inc413.5680.583/4/2014
MCDMcDonald's Corp93.023.4955.52/27/2014
TRIThomson Reuters Corp39.443.4651.282/25/2014
FFord Motor Co14.553.45224/28/2014
PAYXPaychex Inc40.43.4583.785/8/2014
TCK/BTeck Resources Ltd26.293.4261.376/11/2014
GMGeneral Motors Co35.253.4203/14/2014
PFEPfizer Inc30.63.3957.672/5/2014
CVECenovus Energy Inc28.533.3866.973/7/2014
NUNortheast Utilities43.453.3871.42/28/2014
MRKMerck & Co Inc52.083.3883.873/13/2014

Annual sales growth (%)

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/Share
FBFacebook Inc64.851108.4638.0217.0954.694.676.070.643.25

Based on latest estimates, Blue Nile’s PE ratio is almost twice that of Netflix, incredible given the fact that these companies are both in high growth mode. One of reasons why Netflix’s stock has been suffering is because of competition and possibilities that it could lose some studios movies. For example, rumors are that Disney is advanced in negotiations with Liberty Media Corp (LSTZA) to gain exclusive streaming rights to its movies. And with Redbox, Blockbuster, Apple, Youtube, Hulu and others fighting for content, the battle is on. But Netflix does have a good position and there is no reason to believe that these concerns will affect the company’s results too much in the coming months.
And finally, to complete the analysis, take a look at the graphs of both companies:

Financial Ramblings

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.16.2010 (2:32 pm)

January is always a very interesting month as everyone rushes to their pencils to draw up new resolutions and see how everything is going. I do the same thing so I can’t complain but I just hope that everyone takes the time to look back at their resolutions at least once or twice per month, or less they will just be forgotten!

I cannot do these ramblings without first suggesting that you make a donation to help the situation in Haiti. I suggest giving to either Unicef or Care at Google`s page, or perhaps the Bill Clinton foundation. We truly can make a positive difference in this world and this is one of the moments where it can happen.

Here are some of the best readings I enjoyed last week:

Google and China @ Time.com
Your most important financial decision? Your Spouse!
@ Moolanomy
S&P500 Dividend aristocrats @
bargaineering
A look at my net worth – January
@ TheFinancialBlogger
Goldman expects Q4 GDP to be 5.8%! @ ZeroHedge
Selling Puts on Intel(INTC) @ MyTradersJournal
The Invese relationship between gold and the us dollar @ MoneyUnder30
Roth IRA contribution limits for 2010 @ FourPillars
My Financial Goals for 2010 @ MillionDollarJourney

Best 2010 Stock Picks continued: Dividend growth stock picks

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.15.2010 (5:00 am)

Last week’s post on the best US dividend stocks was a major success and many readers contacted me to thank me or ask additional questions. I did get a feeling that there was a lot more information out there and possibilities to do even better.

So here is what I did, I took the universe of US stocks and applied some criterias:

1-Profitable companies (in the past year)
2-At least 2% of dividend growth in the past year
3-Positive 5 year dividend growth
4-Taking out companies with too little market cap or revenues

I also added a few more criterias and came up with a very interesting list that you can look at and sort below:

I will try to get more information some of the specific names and please feel free to ask any questions. All infos contained here are as of January 14th 2010.

I was happy to find so many stocks that have been able to pay a steady and increasing dividend while remaining profitable.

So which ones of these look the most interesting to you? I would personally look into the energy companies that should remain very profitable as the economy regains strength. You also have companies like McDonald’s which we could expect to do well in any period:) And many others!

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Dvd Date
WINWindstream Holdings Inc7.213.92356.153/27/2014
FTRFrontier Communications Corp4.429.01298.643/5/2014
TATransAlta Corp14.38.1N/A2/21/2014
CTLCenturyLink Inc28.137.67231.483/6/2014
DODiamond Offshore Drilling Inc47.77.3567.542/13/2014
CPGCrescent Point Energy Corp37.667.33488.532/26/2014
COSCanadian Oil Sands Ltd19.867.0481.292/19/2014
PWTPenn West Petroleum Ltd8.166.86294.253/26/2014
ESVEnsco PLC49.146.0928.613/13/2014
TAT&T Inc31.955.7453.244/8/2014
MOAltria Group Inc34.115.6281.113/14/2014
POMPepco Holdings Inc19.235.6187.023/6/2014
HCPHCP Inc38.835.6110.322/6/2014
ERFEnerplus Corp19.615.53N/A3/6/2014
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc57.495.53607.362/6/2014
TETECO Energy Inc16.265.3995.652/11/2014
RAIReynolds American Inc46.965.34103.63/7/2014
RIGTransocean Ltd42.475.2934.812/19/2014
ETREntergy Corp62.725.2869.572/11/2014
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc53.165.172.792/26/2014
BCEBCE Inc46.065.0665.513/14/2014
PMPhilip Morris International Inc75.394.9762.643/25/2014
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE33.324.92138.484/25/2014
SOSouthern Co/The41.254.91106.715/1/2014
NENoble Corp plc30.924.8624.312/6/2014
PPLPPL Corp30.494.8254.543/7/2014
EQREquity Residential54.84.75210.013/20/2014
VTRVentas Inc61.554.71238.423/7/2014
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc13.844.786.944/29/2014
EDConsolidated Edison Inc53.744.6862.32/10/2014
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc47.324.6464.094/8/2014
LOLorillard Inc48.144.5773.632/26/2014
VZVerizon Communications Inc46.414.5751.734/8/2014
FEFirstEnergy Corp31.254.57119.432/5/2014
SJR/BShaw Communications Inc24.414.5161.582/12/2014
BMOBank of Montreal67.624.546.864/29/2014
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce/Canada85.814.4844.493/26/2014
MACMacerich Co/The55.744.46111.532/19/2014
POTPotash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc34.994.4564.424/8/2014
NANational Bank of Canada83.24.4438.363/25/2014
DUKDuke Energy Corp70.464.43100.422/12/2014
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp51.284.475.484/29/2014
KIMKimco Realty Corp20.464.39356.183/31/2014
PCGPG&E Corp41.524.3895.713/28/2014
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc33.234.3356.313/7/2014
SCGSCANA Corp46.834.3361.83/11/2014
COPConocoPhillips63.864.3241.662/13/2014
EXCExelon Corp28.974.28147.722/12/2014
AEEAmeren Corp37.664.25N/A3/10/2014
ARXARC Resources Ltd28.494.21256.752/26/2014
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc42.034.2133.832/19/2014
FTSFortis Inc/Canada30.524.273.332/12/2014
MATMattel Inc36.054.255.082/18/2014
IRMIron Mountain Inc25.94.17196.453/19/2014
LEGLeggett & Platt Inc29.064.1389.993/12/2014
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc48.314.1364.172/6/2014
BNSBank of Nova Scotia60.594.1246.063/28/2014
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc23.054.1182.972/12/2014
GRMNGarmin Ltd43.634.1164.783/13/2014
KRFTKraft Foods Group Inc51.124.118.053/27/2014
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The39.334.08102.533/12/2014
SLFSun Life Financial Inc35.434.0761.122/24/2014
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc31.084.0284.824/11/2014
GASAGL Resources Inc46.933.9974.912/19/2014
RYRoyal Bank of Canada68.53.9445.24/23/2014
CMSCMS Energy Corp27.423.9359.82/5/2014
POWPower Corp of Canada29.63.9264.183/19/2014
XELXcel Energy Inc28.613.958.073/18/2014
DTEDTE Energy Co67.973.8562.013/20/2014
TRPTransCanada Corp48.283.8295.523/26/2014
CVCCablevision Systems Corp15.853.8483.893/12/2014
NEMNewmont Mining Corp21.023.836.873/14/2014
SESpectra Energy Corp35.343.7880.172/12/2014
AVBAvalonBay Communities Inc123.293.77932.943/27/2014
INTCIntel Corp23.953.7646.52/5/2014
AIVApartment Investment & Management Co27.723.76N/A2/12/2014
TTELUS Corp38.443.7560.353/5/2014
RCI/BRogers Communications Inc46.073.7547.353/12/2014
SPLSStaples Inc12.93.73N/A3/26/2014
LLYEli Lilly & Co52.663.7245.382/12/2014
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp47.613.762.473/17/2014
HSEHusky Energy Inc32.53.6959.733/5/2014
WECWisconsin Energy Corp42.193.6950.582/12/2014
GEGeneral Electric Co24.353.6153.212/20/2014
TDToronto-Dominion Bank/The47.893.6146.724/2/2014
LMTLockheed Martin Corp147.743.6522/27/2014
PSAPublic Storage155.863.59114.783/10/2014
CVXChevron Corp111.143.5934.92/12/2014
DDominion Resources Inc/VA67.123.5872.882/26/2014
WMWaste Management Inc413.5680.583/4/2014
MCDMcDonald's Corp93.023.4955.52/27/2014
TRIThomson Reuters Corp39.443.4651.282/25/2014
FFord Motor Co14.553.45224/28/2014
PAYXPaychex Inc40.43.4583.785/8/2014
TCK/BTeck Resources Ltd26.293.4261.376/11/2014
GMGeneral Motors Co35.253.4203/14/2014
PFEPfizer Inc30.63.3957.672/5/2014
CVECenovus Energy Inc28.533.3866.973/7/2014
NUNortheast Utilities43.453.3871.42/28/2014
MRKMerck & Co Inc52.083.3883.873/13/2014

Power shift from Amazon(AMZN) to Apple(AAPL)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.14.2010 (5:00 am)

Amazon has shown impressive growth almost from the start. It began as a no-name bookseller that was trying an unproven internet only model and became the dominant force as traditional competitors such as Barnes & Nobles took too long to get a significant online presence. And from then on, it’s been a ride to the stars for Amazon and its very succesful founder Jeff Bezos.

Just take a look at its sales growth in the past few years

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
AOLAOL Inc50.7731.922.1212.7-0.473.9528.660.6324.06N/AN/A
PCLNpriceline.com Inc1178.0433.7723.241.9120.794.67125.991.26105.5632.5476.16

Amazon did jump into many other products and now has significant streams from electronics and other segments. Buying a company like Zappos a few months ago was also a significant step into both keeping a unique structure despite its growing business but also more diversification. But let’s face it, Amazon’s core remains its book business.

As books became more popular digitally, Amazon was smart enough to do 2 things:

-Launch the Kindle, the leading electronic reader
-Start selling digital books

All in the hopes of replicating to books what Apple has done to music. I have discussed many times how Apple has incredible power and as more and more music sales go through Apple, it has more pricing power towards consumers but also towards the music producers. And things are moving along very quickly. In fact, this Christmas was the first time ever that Amazon sold more digital books tan physical ones. This is HUGE and a big step in the new direction.

There is one major problem though. As it becomes more digital, its powerful distribution network, shipping infrastructure and competitive advantage all lose their importance.

It is all about 3 things now:

-The physical reader (Amazon’s Kindle)
-The book distribution
-The customer base

But now, we are only days away from the much anticipated launch of the Apple Tablet (whatever it name ends up being). Rumours are that it will be launched on January 26th. Now let’s go back to 3 important aspects of this digital book business:

Physical reader: Kindle is the best solution around but I don’t think anyone doubts that Apple’s product will be superior. Steve Jobs has not been launching products that wren not superior for a long time and this is one launch that will probably not be missed. The colours, look and possibilities will be far superior – advantage APPLE

Customer Base: Debatable who has the advantage as Amazon has many many customers that have been very satisfied over the years but Apple’s Itunes also has millions of buyers (70% of music sales are made on Itunes according to estimates), it is not yet clear which company has the advantage here. – TIE

Book distribution: Amazon here has a major advantage but it might not last very long for a few reasons:

-Publishers are frustrated with Amazon’s negotiating power and feel like more competition would be good for them instead of having one dominant player (such as the music industry’s situation)

-No publisher could afford not to get a deal with Apple, it would seem like suicide given how dominant the Steve Jobs company has been with applications and music. It’s probably only a matter of weeks before Apple catches up to Amazon – Slight Apple advantage but so small that I will put this as a TIE

So should Amazon be worried? You bet. I still think it’s trading very expensive right now (over 50 times earnings!!!) and you can probably expect me to go short Amazon in next’s week trade. Not saying it’s a done deal, but I’m strongly considering it.

Any thoughts on your end???

How I choose my trades

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.13.2010 (5:00 am)

On Monday, I was asked about the spreadsheet that I use when deciding on possible and potential trades. So here you go, you can start by downloading the file and I will briefly explain how I use it:

DOWNLOAD HERE

You can see the different stocks that I track (currently 23), which are sorted by the subcategory (column 3). If you are a regular reader of this blog, most of those names will ring a bell, I have either traded or discussed almost all of them.

Column 4 is obviously the price. I do not pay that much attention to the price except perhaps avoiding stocks that would trade under 5$, these can become very volatile, hard to borrow, etc.

Column 5: this includes the annualized earnings per share

Column 6, 7 & 8: the PE ratio is one of the primary indicators that I use when looking for stocks that are undervalued or overvalued.  There are also estimates from Bloomberg for PE ratios for the next two years which also give interesting informations.

Column 9: Total return YTD is not as much help right now with the year just starting but as the year goes on, it helps to give an indication of stocks that could have moved differently from others, etc.

Column 10: The sales growth is a clear indication of how quicky each company is growing, in terms of revenues only.

Now obviously, I do not decide on a trade simply by looking at this table, but it is what gives me ideas which I then take the time to research in details, looking at news, statements, visitor stats, etc, etc. I also use stockcharts.com to get the graphs that I use. I generally look for one of two trade ideas:

-Stocks that trade at similar PE ratios, then deciding if it is warranted or if one stock is undervalued.

-Stocks that are similar because they are in the same sub-category (such as the trade done yesterday on Expedia & Priceline), these also offer many possibilities.

Again, this is just a start but it will give you a good idea of how I get my trade ideas.

Any comments/questions?

Trade: Long Priceline-PCLN/Short Expedia-EXPE

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.12.2010 (5:00 am)

As regular readers know, one of my favourite areas to invest in is online travel. There are many reasons of course but generally the idea behind is that it is a competitive field with a few listed companies. Ideally, Kayak would also be a listed company (maybe eventually) but for now, Priceline, Expedia and Orbitz do provide opportunities.

Right now, it certainly looks like Priceline is trading cheap compared to Expedia. It has a higher P/E ratio but compared to growth differences, I personally think that difference should be higher. As well, Expedia has been running all kinds of promotions to try to catch up, unsucessfully so far it seems.

Just take a look at the recent sales growth for both companies, it is not even close:

TickerNameSharesJan 14 2014 PriceJan 14 2014 Values
OMCOmnicom Group Inc29$73.91$2,217.30
MSFTMicrosoft Corp71$35.78$2,576.16
JCIJohnson Controls Inc39$51.92$2,076.80
PEPPepsiCo Inc/NC27$82.37$2,306.36
ETNEaton Corp31$75.70$2,346.70
DOVDover Corp23$95.42$2,290.08
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc27$82.23$2,302.44
XLNXXilinx Inc37$46.05$1,703.85
SJMJM Smucker Co/The19$99.34$1,887.46
BLKBlackRock Inc10$310.52$3,415.72
TROWT Rowe Price Group Inc28$83.19$2,412.51
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp21$92.31$2,030.82
COPConocoPhillips25$68.32$1,708
XOMExxon Mobil Corp19$99.12$1,883.28
ADIAnalog Devices Inc43$49.71$2,187.24
HASHasbro Inc31$52.31$1,621.61
MATMattel Inc42$44.40$1,909.20
INTCIntel Corp53$26.51$1,405.03
AFLAflac28$64.70$1,876.30
BAXBaxter International23$69.66$1,671.84
IVZInvesco Ltd67$35.22$2,359.74
VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets43$39.81$1,711.83
BNDVanguard Total Bond Market21$80.57$1,691.97
Cash$75.44
USDP$47,868.63
SPX13.80378067$3,300.53$47,593.77

Then, you can also take a look at traffic charts from Compete, again, Priceline clearly dominates

If you take a look at both stock charts, you will of course notice that Priceline has been the overperformer but I do think that it will remain that way and that Priceline will continue to rise quickly in the the coming year. As the economy continues to go through difficult times, Priceline, known as the cheaper way to book travel to most online travellers should be able to continue to gain ground on its competitors.

For your info, I was asked in yesterday’s post to give an idea of the chart that I use to find trade ideas, I will be writing a post about that tomorrow morning.

Time for more trades! IntelligentSpeculator portfolio is back..!

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.11.2010 (5:00 am)

As was the case last year, all trades in the IntelligentSpeculator were closed out on December 31st and we are now about ready to restart. Last year was a successful year with most long/short trades coming out on top. In 2010, I will be using two different types of trades:

-Long only
-Long/short (which regulars are more used to seeing here)

How I trade

As always, I will continue to trade mostly technology stocks with possibilities to trade more “macroeconomic trades” through ETF’s. Since I am tracking the S&P500, all unused funds are going to go to buy shares of “VTI”, the Vanguard S&P500 ETF. With holidays and everything i was busy and did not get a chance to update it yet but the portfolio section will contain all info on trades, positions and performance. It should be vastly improved from 2009 as weeks go by:) Hopefully performance will be as well although getting about 2% per trade on long/short trades is fairly good, especially when you consider that most trades were in and out within a month or so.

As always, I greatly appreciate comments on trades as well as suggestions. I’ve had many good comments concerning certain positions I had on stocks such as Blue Nile, Apple and Yahoo and look forward to hearing more from you in 2010.

Usually I publish stock picks on Monday’s (when I have money available within the fund) but I spent more time this weekend looking over my general strategy for the next few months which left me less time. I have a spreadsheet that allows me to follow about 25 technology (mostly internet related) stocks, their earnings, news and stock movements. Depending on valuations mostly but also partially on technical parameters, that allows me to pick names that should gain.

As should any disciplined investor, I generally use a 20% stop loss or “stop win” to get out of trades. Since these are not used intra-day, it can happen that the win or loss becomes more important but this helps me to be disciplined and avoid being either greedy or put too much on a losing trade.

So stay tuned tomorrow as I make my first pick of the new year!

Please let me know if you have any suggestions, questions or comments as we go along!

Ontario’s No-fault Insurance

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.10.2010 (4:10 pm)

No-fault insurance does sound like no one has to be responsible for a car accident, but that is not the case. When an accident occurs, it means that each driver is required to contact his or her own car insurance company regardless of which one caused the damage.

This type of auto insurance in Ontario also applies to each passenger in the cars involved. Each one must contact his/her own insurance company to see what benefits are available. In the event that someone is traveling with no insurance, they may be covered under the driver’s policy.

Fault Determination Rules are used by insurance companies so that fault is justly placed upon the right party (or parties) involved in an automobile accident. These rules work closely with the Insurance Act so that accidents are dealt with in a timely manner. Drivers beware that charges can still be made by the police at an accident using the Highway Traffic Act.

All types of accidents are up for determination of fault when they occur. Some are deemed “no fault” by either driver when road conditions come into play. Even though the police may decide this way, the insurance company still has to place blame somewhere. When an accident occurs the driver at fault will have to pay a deductible for damages and the insurance premiums may rise upon renewal of the policy.

Some do not agree with their “at fault” status when an insurance company makes a decision on an accident claim. There are ways to fight this. The insurance company’s Ombudsman Liaison Officer can be contacted and then the Ontario Insurance Ombudsman if needed. After these two, some opt for a court preceding if not happy with the outcome.

Financial Ramblings

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.09.2010 (9:20 pm)

With the winter, snow, ice and cold weather around, thankfully there is some football on this weekend to keep us warm next to the tv:) I still had some time to look around the web and here are some of my best reads:

Invest in your most income producing asset @ GetRichSlowly
Jobs not being created? Is the economy alright? @ Smartmoney
Returns comparisons between hedged and unhedged ETF returns @ CanadianCapitalist
Good returns by Four Pillars in 2009 @ Four Pillars
4 moves to achieve your financial goals @ GatherLittlebyLittle
How to buy a blog in 3 easy steps @ TheFinancialBlogger
2009 Financial Goals evaluation @ MillionDollarJourney
Top 10 hottest ETF’s for January 2010 @ StockTradingtogo
The World is a better place outside the US @ Marketwatch
Leveraged ETF’s meet leveraged mutual funds @ ZachStocks