SWC – Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE)
I forgot to update Stillwater Mining Company so here is my take on SWC. I still think the stock price of SWC is going to continue to decline. The stock price of SWC was trading in the ten dollar range before it had its huge run and I expect the stock price to go back to that range as platinum and palladium prices continue to correct. I would continue to hold your short position.
Disclaimer: I have no position in SWC.
AIXG – Aixtron (NASDAQ)
Aixtron has announced a couple of new orders since my initial recommendation and the stock price is already up 11%. A dividend will most likely be approved at the shareholders meeting on May 14 and this should provide a boost to the stock price. Aixtron reported Q1 results last year on May 8 so they should report earnings pretty soon.
AMR – American Airlines (NYSE)
All airline stocks had a strong rally since my initial recommendation but they pulled back on Friday due to profit taking and a rise in oil prices. AMR was already close to my price target but I didn’t give a sell recommendation because I think oil is going to continue to go down short term. I think the dollar will continue to strengthen and the demand for oil is going to decrease. This should push down oil prices and help airline stocks.
CAAS – China Automotive (NASDAQ)
China Automotive reported decent results in March and the stock price initially went up but has sold off since. They are set to report Q1 results this month so I will provide an update then. (more…)
AMR – American Airlines (NYSE) – (Closing Price – $8.53)
The stock prices of airlines have taken quite a hit in the last year as speculators sent the price of oil up to record levels. In the past few days oil has pulled back from its record highs and the airlines have started to rally. I expect oil to continue to sell off and I think buying airline stocks is a good short term play. There is also talk of consolidation in the airline industry so this should also bode well for airline stocks.
I think oil will continue to sell off for a couple of reasons. First, the Fed is expected to signal that it is going to stop lowering interest rates for a while. This will help the dollar strengthen and it takes away the major reason speculators have been bidding up oil (they have been buying oil as a hedge against the falling dollar). Second, the high price of oil and the sluggish economy is reducing demand for oil. I think future supply reports will show this.
I believe the entire airline industry is going to rally short term so you have a lot of companies to choose from. I am going to give a buy recommendation of American Airlines with a price target of ten dollars in the next month.
Disclaimer: I have no position in airline stocks.
SILC – Silicom Limited (NASDAQ) – (Closing Price – $9.50)
Silicom Ltd. announced their first quarter 2008 results yesterday and reported an increase in revenue but flat growth in earnings. Amazingly, the stock price has dropped more than 25% since the news.
Silicom reported revenue of 7.70 million which was up 27% compared to Q1 2007 and up 3% compared to the prior quarter. EPS came in at 0.26 per diluted share. This was an improvement of 0.04 over last year but EPS has been flat the last few quarters.
I don’t think flat growth merited such a huge sell off considering the fact that businesses have been cautious in their spending due to the uncertain economic climate (flat growth could actually be looked at as a positive). Also, Silicom wasn’t trading at an expensive valuation before earnings so it shouldn’t have sold off so much after earnings.
I think the share price of Silicom may continue to trade flat or down for a quarter two if companies continue to cut back on their spending but the stock price will quickly rebound when the economic picture starts to look better. I think it would be wise to be patient with Silicom and I am going to recommend to continue holding your shares.
Disclaimer: I currently own shares of SILC.
Here are the rest of my current stock picks:
SILC – Silicom Limited
The stock price of Silicom Limited have been erratic since my initial buy recommendation but the stock price is currently trending up. Silicom is set to report first quarter earnings on April 28 and I expect there will be a run-up in price before earnings. I will provide another update after earnings are announced.
SWIR – Sierra Wireless:
The stock price of Sierra Wireless has also been erratic since my last update but the stock price is currently undergoing a pretty strong rally. Sierra Wireless is heavily shorted and a short squeeze is already underway. The fundamentals of Sierra Wireless didn’t merit such a huge selloff and I think the stock price could easily rally to 20 – 25 dollars after earnings. Sierra Wireless reported first quarter results last year on April 26 so they should report earnings later this month. (You should also check out NVTL).
Short Recommendation:
SWC – Stillwater Mining Company:
Both Stillwater Mining Company and PAL have sold off since my initial short recommendation but they haven’t dropped as much as I expected. I still think there is further downside left and I would continue to hold your short position.
Disclaimer: I have a long position in SILC. I don’t have a position in the other stocks mentioned.
I usually don’t write about my stock recommendations unless they report quarterly earnings or some other important event happens (press release, news event, etc). However, I am going to start updating all my recommendations at the beginning of each month to keep you better informed on how each stock is doing and report on any important news.
Buy/Hold Recommendations:
CAAS – China Automotive Systems:
China Automotive Systems reported sound Q4 results on March 25 and the stock price has rebounded quite a bit from its lows. Today, the company announced that it completed its 35.5% acquisition of Henglong Automotive Parts and the transaction will be immediately accretive to earnings. China Automotive Systems is trading at a nice valuation and the company’s fundamentals should continue to improve in the coming year. I still think the company is a good buy. (more…)
