New Trade: Long Dice Holdings ($DHX) & Short Monster Worldwide ($MWW)

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 06.11.2013 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

I usually open new trades on Monday’s but lacked time to do the research last weekend but here I am today. Before getting started, I’m going to close 2 existing trades with one being a winner and the other a losing trade. Overall, the return of my tech stock picks has improved in the last few months but it’s always volatile so for now I’ll wait and see how things end up going. As a reminder, you can see all of my 2013 tech stock picks here. Here are the 2 trades that will be closed on today’s opening:

Long TripAdvisor (TRIP) & Short Travelzoo (TZOO)

TRIP Chart

TRIP data by YCharts

Long eBay (EBAY) & Short Yahoo (YHOO)

EBAY Chart

EBAY data by YCharts

Today’s new trade is one that I’ve done several times in the past few years, with good success mostly. I trade 2 job seeking sites, Monster and Dice. The rational remains the same on the trade. Before going further here are the numbers on these two companies:

TickerNamePriceEPSPE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y GrowthEPS 5Y Growth
MWWMonster Worldwide Inc5.550.5218.0712.35-3.56-10.394.17.61.797.89-9.03N/A
DHXDice Holdings Inc9.30.6215.8113.85-9.063.673.221.643.197.8618.27

Long Dice Holdings

I’ve generally felt like Dice has been able to focus on a few key industries and has done very well doing so. They have strong niche websites that help job seeking candidates and companies in specific sectors find each other. That has been a working formula and the growth continues to be solid on all fronts. I don’t see a ton of growth coming but it is valued at a decent P/E ratio of 13.85 (based on next year’s expected earnings).

DHX

Next earnings release: July 25

Short Monster Worldwide (MWW)

Monster has always tried to be the answer to all. It targets every industry in almost every country. That is the type of thing that companies such as AOL (AOL), Yahoo (YHOO) and IAC Interactive (IACI) have been unable to do. It’s incredibly difficult to get that done, especially when a player like LinkedIn (LNKD) seems much better positioned. Monster has seen declining earnings and very low earnings

MWW

Next earnings release: August 2nd

Disclaimer: No position on either Dice Holdings (DHX) or Monster (MWW)

How Much Do You Need To Retire?

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 06.10.2013 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

retirement-3Some time ago, I wrote about how the 4% rule applied to a dividend portfolio and that generated quite a few reactions. Many of them regarded how much was truly needed to retire, especially since I had used a $1 million retirement starting plan. I personally hope and expect to retire with more but never did I even consider that you’d need $1 million to retire. That would be wrong on so many levels.

Your Own Number

ING made a splash when it started advertising that we all should know and work towards saving “our number”. As I discussed, I do understand that there are several unknowns, especially considering numbers like inflation. Even a rather small change in that number can have massive consequences, especially on those who have retired. That being said, I believe in planning, with the best available estimates. Then, over time we can adjust that number. It’s still better to have a number and adjust it over time than not having anything.

Where To Start

Before even starting, one thing I’d say is that there are a million different ways to do this. I will not give my exact numbers but will give some estimate here:) It’s important to remember that a few changes can make a massive difference, those can include moving to a new location which I discussed earlier this month.

Salary for my wife and I: $120,000
After taxes salary: $80,000

I think the main number to look at here when trying to determine at how much I will need. The first number I’m looking for is how much I currently have every year to spend. That number is my before tax numbers. I will then take out the following expenses:

-annual savings $15,000
-mortgage (should be paid by then): $30,000
-work related expenses (work clothes, transport, etc): $5,000

So that gives me a total of $30,000 that I need to generate before taxes assuming that everything else remains the same.

It’s important to consider that my tax rate will be significantly lower considering the lower income and some of it coming from capital gains. So I could likely be ok with $50,000 or so?

There will likely be more changes:

-govt or other pension: I prefer not to count on this at all as I think that most governments will have to break many promises if they want to avoid going completely broke
-travel: I am likely to travel more once I retire, so ideally I’d have something extra saved for such expenses
-sure I might have to move to a place with a rent at some point but the extra income from selling the house should be enough to compensate

So what would be my number?

I’m sure a lot of other changes that I cannot even consider now will occur. That is why my number will change every time I recalculate but that is more than fine.

What about you? What is your number?

Weekend Readings

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 06.07.2013 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

obamaMan oh man, no matter how involved or not involved the White House is in all of this… it really looks bad. After Bengazi, the IRS and the spying on AP, now we seem to learn that the NSA is working with tech companies and phone carriers to spy on all citizens? Is the government out of control? Here are some readings that you will hopefully find interesting:)

General Readings

-Should we trust economists? @ TheAtlantic
-Is the NSA spying on all of us? @ WashingtonPost

Passive Income/Dividend Readings

-Top Canadian dividend stocks @ TheDividendGuyBlog
-Coca-Cola (KO) dividend stock analysis @ Dividend-Growth-Stocks
-Pepsi (PEP) to buy Sodastream? @ Reuters

Tech Stock Readings

-The power of Amazon (AMZN).. fascinating @ TechCrunch
-Zynga (ZNGA) announces major layoffs @ TechCrunch
-Wall Street Hates Facebook (FB) @ Wired
-Apple (AAPL) getting ready for iRadio? @ Bloomberg

 

Do Amazon’s ($AMZN) Grocery Plans Make Sense?

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 06.06.2013 (8:00 am) | Write a Comment

amznfreshAsk any Amazon competitor about the strategies they use and tell you that the company is a big bully. Competing with Walmart (WMT) and its low prices as one thing but when you face a company of Amazon’s size that does not seem to care about losing money for several years on certain segments, it can become very tricky to compete. Time after time, Amazon has entered areas, offering extremely low prices in order to weaken and eventually eliminate competitors. Since the company does not break down its financials much, it’s difficult to say how bad it is but there’s no doubt that Amazon is ready to lose money in order to advance its long term goals.

Already, Amazon has been a major force in getting companies such as Barnes & Nobles, Best Buy and so many others to go further down the road to bankruptcy. There are few public companies willing to take such a long term view and I’d argue that perhaps none takes it as far as Amazon. Is the company making money selling its Kindle devices? Most analysts strongly doubt it.

In Come Groceries

Amazon has been running Amazon Fresh, a grocery delivery service for a few years now and is apparently ready to start scaling to other regions in the US and abroad. On the surface, it doesn’t look like a very attractive business:

-margins are already low
-many established competitors
-keeping and delivering “fresh” food will be a challenge
-such a local service that it will require warehouses in many more locations
-will require dealing with thousands of local producers (as opposed to dealing with a few international companies)

AMZN

Of course, if you know how brilliant Jeff Bezos is, it makes sense to figure out why he could be doing it. As others have pointed out, and I’ve argued in my post about owning Amazon as a long term play, the main competitive advantage that Amazon has revolves around its warehouse, distribution and sales process which is as streamlined and efficient as you’ll find. Google and a few others are looking at competing but I just don’t see that happening. At least not anytime soon. But if Google wants to build on that advantage, it needs to make sure that more users use it more frequently. The best way of course is venturing into areas such as Groceries where scale matters, where others will not venture because the margins are too low and where consumers spend a significant amount of money every month.

Impact Of Amazon Fresh’s Expansion?

I personally don’t think there will not be much impact on earnings and revenues from this expansion but it will give us a better look into what Amazon’s long term strategy is which will be incredibly fascinating.

What do you guys think of Amazon competing for your grocery budget?

Disclaimer: No position on Amazon (AMZN)

How To Build Your Own Mini Berkshire Empire

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 06.05.2013 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

Warren BuffettEvery year, I read the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders letter, written by Warren Buffett. I highly recommend that anyone interested in the markets take the time read it. It’s an interesting long term perspective that we rarely see. Why would someone want to build a mini-Berkshire? I guess having a fund that grows steadily over time, that outperforms stock indexes such as the S&P500 would help me tremendously in my passive income objectives.

What I Do Not Want From My Mini Berkshire

Two main things that I would not look to replicate:

-Having shareholders: Buffett and Berkshire have shareholders that they invest for and while using other people’s money is a great way to get bigger, it’s not something I’d look to do at this point.

-Paying Dividends: While Berkshire does not pay out dividends to shareholders, I do expect to depend on income from my investment fund at some point and would thus need to rely on some income at a certain point.

Similarities Between My Mini-Berkshire And The “Real” Thing

Positive cash flow: Berkshire gets very important cash flows from its insurance businesses that generate cash flows. I would also build a strong foundation on the back of income generating assets such as dividend stocks, ETF’s, real estate, etc. This would enable me to reinvest money, but also remain cash flow positive even when I end up living off of the portfolio.

Hold Cash: One of the unique aspects of Berkshire is how much cash it holds at all times. This can be a drag on returns but it also makes it possible to get good opportunities when there is panic. Buffett has frequently been buying big assets when everyone else was trying to get out, jumping in at very good prices. Having a lot of cash opens up opportunities and makes it possible to be more flexible.

Buy Based On Fundamentals: You might say that most of Berkshire’s investments are boring and it’d tough to argue. I do like buying companies that I understand and that I can get a good feeling on the valuation I’m paying and what I’m actually buying.

Investing in sound businesses rather than go bargain hunting: One mistake that Buffett has said he makes is when he goes bargain hunting. Buying great businesses at good prices is good. But buying average businesses at below-market prices is bad. I’m not interested in buying such businesses. As I’ve discussed in the past, it’s very difficult to try catching a falling knife.

Needs to outlive me: I don’t think many doubt that Berkshire will outlive Buffett. I certainly plan on having my mini-Berkshire also outlive me. Hopefully, it can give my kids a good start in life

The more I think about this, the better building this type of fund makes sense to me.  What about you?

Top 100 Dividend Stocks – June 2013 Edition

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 06.04.2013 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

56Dividend investing is a huge part of my investment strategy. As I’ve mentioned in my now monthly passive income updates, receiving dividend income from my both my Ultimate Sustainable Dividend portfolio and my ETF portfolio is a primary driver of how my retirement will be like a few decades from now:)

Today I’m looking at the top S&P500 dividend stocks. Why? It remains much easier and less risky to go for bigger cap stocks that have more history.

Find Out More

In the next few days, I’ll be doing some research on some of these names. As you can probably tell, most of the top names here are paying much more than they can afford. I typically stay away from such stocks which means Pepco Holdings (POM), Lorillard inc (LO) and Garmin (GRMN) in particular. You can join our free mailing list if you’d like more thoughts on those names.

In the meantime, here is the list!

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Date
WINWindstream Corp8.0312.45356.156/26/2013
FTRFrontier Communications Corp4.149.64298.646/5/2013
CTLCenturyLink Inc34.156.32231.489/13/2013
FEFirstEnergy Corp39.015.64119.438/2/2013
RAIReynolds American Inc48.115.24103.66/6/2013
POMPepco Holdings Inc20.775.287.026/6/2013
LOLorillard Inc42.445.1873.638/28/2013
GRMNGarmin Ltd34.935.1564.786/14/2013
TAT&T Inc34.995.14141.357/8/2013
PBIPitney Bowes Inc14.685.1268.958/14/2013
DODiamond Offshore Drilling Inc68.815.0867.548/1/2013
TETECO Energy Inc17.61577.48/14/2013
PPLPPL Corp29.74.9554.546/6/2013
MOAltria Group Inc36.14.8882.726/12/2013
ETREntergy Corp68.884.8269.578/6/2013
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc57.534.7372.798/28/2013
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc13.764.7288.837/30/2013
AEEAmeren Corp34.044.7N/A6/10/2013
SOSouthern Co/The43.94.62728/1/2013
DUKDuke Energy Corp66.934.57100.428/14/2013
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc68.034.5607.368/2/2013
GASAGL Resources Inc42.334.4474.918/14/2013
HCPHCP Inc47.384.44110.328/1/2013
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc33.044.3656.316/5/2013
LMTLockheed Martin Corp105.834.3549.658/29/2013
EDConsolidated Edison Inc57.074.3162.38/12/2013
COPConocoPhillips61.344.344.317/17/2013
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc45.824.2872.768/7/2013
VZVerizon Communications Inc48.484.25657.017/8/2013
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE37.984.21116.287/26/2013
NEMNewmont Mining Corp34.284.0936.876/10/2013
PCGPG&E Corp44.914.0595.716/28/2013
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc31.054.0339.016/12/2013
SCGSCANA Corp50.444.0361.86/6/2013
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The35.184.01102.536/5/2013
SESpectra Energy Corp30.573.9980.178/7/2013
DDominion Resources Inc/VA56.553.98373.096/5/2013
CVCCablevision Systems Corp15.123.97483.898/13/2013
EXCExelon Corp31.343.96147.728/13/2013
DTEDTE Energy Co66.613.9362.016/13/2013
XELXcel Energy Inc28.723.957.676/18/2013
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc36.483.88214.958/20/2013
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp56.483.8675.487/30/2013
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc51.83.8647.147/8/2013
KIMKimco Realty Corp22.153.79356.187/1/2013
CMSCMS Energy Corp26.953.7866.747/31/2013
VTRVentas Inc71.373.76238.426/3/2013
ABBVAbbVie Inc42.693.7507/11/2013
PMPhilip Morris International Inc90.913.7462.646/25/2013
DOWDow Chemical Co/The34.463.72170.736/26/2013
GCIGannett Co Inc21.53.7243.756/5/2013
INTCIntel Corp24.283.7139.538/5/2013
LLYEli Lilly & Co53.163.6953.368/13/2013
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc47.73.69133.998/14/2013
MRKMerck & Co Inc46.73.6883.876/13/2013
CACA Inc27.313.6648.488/16/2013
VNOVornado Realty Trust79.953.65265.318/7/2013
KRFTKraft Foods Group Inc55.133.6318.056/26/2013
LEGLeggett & Platt Inc323.6265.36/12/2013
HASHasbro Inc44.483.655.627/30/2013
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc23.183.5882.978/14/2013
MACMacerich Co/The64.913.57111.538/15/2013
PAYXPaychex Inc37.233.5484.038/1/2013
STXSeagate Technology PLC43.083.5312.88/12/2013
NUNortheast Utilities41.673.5372.378/28/2013
PFEPfizer Inc27.233.5268.98/7/2013
NEENextEra Energy Inc75.623.4952.338/28/2013
WMWaste Management Inc41.933.4880.586/5/2013
NINiSource Inc28.733.4866.617/29/2013
SWYSafeway Inc23.013.4729.146/18/2013
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp47.343.4462.476/17/2013
CLXClorox Co/The83.083.4258.87/22/2013
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp96.833.3466.466/5/2013
WECWisconsin Energy Corp40.813.3350.588/12/2013
CLFCliffs Natural Resources Inc18.043.33N/A8/14/2013
GMEGameStop Corp33.163.32N/A8/23/2013
ESVEnsco PLC60.173.3228.616/6/2013
SAISAIC Inc14.53.3132.626/12/2013
DPSDr Pepper Snapple Group Inc45.983.3145.546/13/2013
SYYSysco Corp33.83.3155.997/2/2013
NUENucor Corp44.513.392.686/26/2013
RTNRaytheon Co66.643.334.047/1/2013
PSAPublic Storage151.83.29114.786/10/2013
MOLXMolex Inc29.343.2751.326/26/2013
GEGeneral Electric Co23.323.2650.226/20/2013
CVXChevron Corp122.753.2626.148/14/2013
DDEI du Pont de Nemours & Co55.793.2367.298/13/2013
AVBAvalonBay Communities Inc132.663.23147.856/26/2013
GISGeneral Mills Inc47.083.2351.057/8/2013
MATMattel Inc44.753.2255.088/26/2013
SPLSStaples Inc153.2N/A6/26/2013
OKEONEOK Inc45.143.1975.598/1/2013
MCDMcDonald's Corp96.573.19538/29/2013
AIVApartment Investment & Management Co30.263.17N/A8/14/2013
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The76.763.1366.067/17/2013
JNJJohnson & Johnson84.183.1360.898/23/2013
TXNTexas Instruments Inc35.893.1247.177/29/2013
SRESempra Energy81.33.167.526/24/2013
WUWestern Union Co/The16.383.0524.786/12/2013
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Co46.013.04116.737/2/2013

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