Stock Picking Contest – Q3 Results

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 10.03.2011 (4:00 am) | Write a Comment  (5 Comments)

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It has certainly been a tough year in the markets and that has certainly not helped our group stand out so far. Thankfully, I am one of two bloggers that have so far succeeded in staying in positive territory. Both DividendGrowthInvestor and I are former winners of the competition and stand alone at the top. However, in these volatile times, things can change very quickly so I am certainly very aware that I things could go badly very fast. Let’s take a quick look at my picks so far and then review the competition:

Amazon (AMZN) +20,13%: No doubt, this is my best pick, and I am very proud of it. In fact, I would still double down on this stock if I could as I mentioned a few days ago. Amazon is that good and dominant, it can now afford to take risks such as the recent launch of the Kindle Fire where it could at best become the standard for Android based tablet devices. Its distribution network is years ahead of almost everyone and the Kindle Fire seems like the perfect way to link all of its current products and offerings. Amazon will go much higher in my opinion.

Kimberly Clarke (KMB) +16,26%: Some were surprised by the pick at the start of the year but I had done an analysis of the name last year in our free newsletter and the profile for a dividend portfolio was very impressive. Sound company, great history and it continues to look as a great stock to own. If you would like to join our free weekly newsletter, simply sign up in the form below:


Pepsi Co. (PEP) -3,06%: I am Pepsi guy all the way, give the choice between the two drinks and I’ll jump on the blue can:) I had also done an analysis between Coca-Cola (KO) and Pepsi (PEP) for factors other than taste:) What did come out were two solid companies that both could have been good picks. I did end up preferring Pepsi for a few reasons, one of them being how Pepsi has a better position in many emerging markets. I am personally fine with Pepsi’s (PEP) performance so far this year as it continues to overperform the general market.

Ctrip (CTRP) -20,51%: Looking for improvement? No doubt, Ctrip has been a near disaster so far.. Not as bad as having picked Research in Motion (RIMM) – sorry TFB – but still a losing pick in so many ways. Being long Chinese internet stocks has been a tough proposition in recent weeks despite the longer term prospects that do still look promising. Ctrip is facing increased competition, a tougher economy and thus slower growth. The stock still trades at a reasonable P/E so it could increase but I’m far from confident at this point. A worrying issue that is weighing on the stock is the fact that many Chinese companies are about to get into serious fraud investigations.

To finish off, here are the rankings so far as well as links to other participants posts. One quarter to go and I’m sitting in 2nd place well within reach of DGI. Let’s hope I can make a run for it!!:

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5 Comments

  1. Comment by Zavi — October 3, 2011 @ 6:28 am
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    way to go IS! in hard markets right now, let’s hope Q4 will be better for everyone!!

  2. avatar

    […] Intelligent Speculator: 3.19% […]

  3. Comment by IS — October 3, 2011 @ 9:33 am
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    @Zavi – Thanks a lot for the good words, I’m certainly hoping that I can get back in front, I was holding the position just a day earlier… Amazon slipped a bit but it’ll be back:)

  4. Comment by awake — October 14, 2011 @ 10:19 am
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    3% seems to be really low. If intelligent people (sir/madame intelligent speculator) can only get returns like this, is it safe to say it’s silly for those saving for retirements in instruments like ROTH are wasting their time thinking they can do 6%-10% a year?

  5. Comment by IS — October 14, 2011 @ 12:08 pm
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    @awake – the comparison should probably be made against the overall market and this year, 3% actually beats that..! You have to believe that as was the case the past 100 years, the market will on average do much better than that!

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