As I announced yesterday, I was fortunate to come out on top last year with a 82% performance for my 4 2009 picks, coming out on top of the fiendly competition with my fellow bloggers. Not that it was easy, but there is no doubt in my mind that the real challenge lies in this post, as I try to get back on top for 2010. I do intend on sticking to the same recipe that worked so well in 2009; 2 tech stocks and 2 macroeconomic ETF picks.
Next week, I will go into various picks that I did consider but did not make my list in the end, should be interesting:
My two ETF picks are based on the notion that commodities will continue to be in demand as emerging markets (especially China) regain traction. There is no doubt as well that Natural Gas has a lot of catching up to do and I believe that 2010 will be a good year for that. There is a lot of speculation on Natural Gas which makes it a bit difficult to trade (similar to crude oil) but I do see more upsize in Nat Gas than in Crude Oil.
The second one is a Nickel index ETF, one that will profit if Nickel continues its spectacular growth. I think metals and food will be as much in demand as energy commodities as things get back to normal so these picks should perform well if the economy continues its slow but gradual recovery.
Pick #1: UNG
Pick #2: JJN
I was hoping to find the next Baidu as that stock was by far the biggest reason why I won the 2009 competition. The truth of course is that those are very difficult to find. There were very special circumstances that led Baidu to be so undervalued in 2009 and I don’t see anything similar to that pattern. However, Sohu.com has a rather low P/E when you consider the growth it is experiencing and the size and opportunities of the Chinese market, so I am more than happy to jump on board. As for Google, I have written many times about the many opportunities offered to Google in the coming months and I consider the stock to be trading on the cheap side.
Pick #3: Sohu.com (SOHU)
Pick #4: Google (GOOG)
I also invite you to take a look at the picks made by my fellow bloggers here (they will be added as they are published on those blogs):
|Ticker||Name||Shares||Dec 17 2013 Price||Dec 17 2013 Values|
|OMC||Omnicom Group Inc||29||$69.84||$2,025.36|
|JCI||Johnson Controls Inc||39||$51.32||$2,052.80|
|ITW||Illinois Tool Works Inc||27||$79.96||$2,158.92|
|SJM||JM Smucker Co/The||19||$101.10||$1,920.90|
|TROW||T Rowe Price Group Inc||28||$79.81||$2,314.49|
|OXY||Occidental Petroleum Corp||21||$90.21||$1,984.62|
|XOM||Exxon Mobil Corp||19||$96.75||$1,838.25|
|ADI||Analog Devices Inc||43||$48.94||$2,153.36|
|VWO||Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets||28||$40.27||$1,127.56|
|BND||Vanguard Total Bond Market||13||$80.61||$1,128.54|