2010 Stock Picks: Q1 results

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 03.31.2010 (6:03 pm) | Write a Comment  (10 Comments)

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After ending the 2009 competition on a high note and winning among peer bloggers, I obviously had very high expectations for this year’s picks and followed a similar strategy, picking two more general economic picks; UNG and JJN, two commodity picks as well as two tech stocks; Google (GOOG) and Sohu (SOHU).

Unfortunately, as you can see in these results, things have not been as good so far this year. Thankfully things have gone better in my picks done on this website! Of course, it is still very early and I still think I have a shot at winning, but to be honest, my pick on Natural Gas has turned into a disaster! So without further wait, here are my 4 picks:

JJN: +35.69% Great performance as nickel has continued to soar, I’d say things will ease down but I’m comfortable with the pick.

UNG: -31.27% – You know things are bad when companies such as Shell are working on ways to convert natural gas into oil. It means that Natural Gas is dirt cheap. And that is exactly what has been happening. Again, I can’t see prices going much lower so not too worried about the downside risk but I would not say I’m optimistic either a big rebound.

GOOG: -7.76% – Things have been hectic for Google so far this year as has been well discussed all over this blog, especially recently with the China debacle. But I remain optimistic and now that those things have more or less cleared up, I’m very comfortable with my pick, more on that next week but let’s just say I’m a strong Google (GOOG) believer right now.

SOHU: -1.75% – Sohu has struggled like almost all Chinese stocks (major exception would be Baidu (BIDU)), I do still think the stock looks attractive on valuation as its sales growth (20%) is actually higher than its P/E ratio (15).

Think things will turn around? In any case, here are the full results so far (links are either to the results post or to the picks post depending if the results were published yet on each blog, but results will be updated) :

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  1. avatar

    […] 8. Intelligent Speculator: -1.27% […]

  2. Comment by Daddy Paul — March 31, 2010 @ 8:00 pm

    I have to give you credit a lot of people will not talk about their failures.

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  5. Comment by Vito — April 1, 2010 @ 6:07 am

    I am pretty sure things will improve for GOOG and UNG. I honestly would exit from positions on JJN and SOHU.

    JJN seems at a correct valuation now (well done to spot it while undervalued), so it is unlikely that will keep the momentum, or, as for the gas, this may be another bubble just waiting to bust. Just cash it!

    About SOHU,I just don’t see any Chinese stock to be able to deliver much in the medium term, although I think the consideration on P/E makes SOHU a valid one across the bunch.

  6. Pingback by 2010 Stock Picks Contest – Q1 Review — April 1, 2010 @ 6:37 am

    […] The Intelligent Speculator           -1.27% […]

  7. Comment by IS — April 1, 2010 @ 7:20 am

    @Vito – All good points. Unfortunately, in this specific contest, we cannot exit positions so for now, I’m hoping JJN can hold up while UNG recovers:)

  8. avatar

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