2 New Trades ($TRIP, $TWTR, $AMZN, $NFLX)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 09.19.2016 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment  (3 Comments)

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Today I am opening my 18th and 19th trades of the year which will be my last 2 ones for the year (for tech long & short). It’s been a rocky year, my worst on record, hopefully these 2 help start a turnaround. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
TRIPTripAdvisor Inc61.2972.729.78-27.4819.743.0810.331.4111/3/201610.3618.9-8.13
TWTRTwitter Inc19.11N/A31.44-20.9258.093.056.451.3410/25/20163.35107.43N/A
AMZNAmazon.com Inc778.52191.1347.2613.8820.254.734.891.0210/20/2016229.1325.2N/A
NFLXNetflix Inc99.48304.1989.38-14.923.163.735.631.5310/17/201615.9221.8181.15

And the usual chart that I like to bring up:

Long Tripadvisor (TRIP) & Short Twitter (TWTR)

Being long Tripadvisor has certainly been a difficult position to hold in the past few months but I think it’s getting closer to its bottom. On the other hand, Twitter has been a big story in the past few months. There are some rumours that it will be acquired and that is clearly a risk but the company seems to be determined to find a better way out. The NFL deal has been perceived as a bid win for Twitter and in many ways it is. It got the rights for extremely cheap, was able to deliver a very solid broadcast in the first game, and got a lot of eyeballs. That being said, it remains unclear to me how this fits into the company’s longer term goals, how it will help deliver more visitors to its site or more money. I think the stock gains are clearly unjustified.

 

 

Long Amazon (AMZN) & Short Netflix (NFLX)

I will be writing more in-depth very soon about these two companies but I think one clear opinion is that Amazon is starting to create issues for Netflix, pressure on its growth and while I do remain optimistic about Netflix’s long term future, I think Amazon will put more pressure on NFLX’s margins and at these high valuations, I prefer the upside/downside risk of Amazon in this trade.

 

 

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I have a long position on $TRIP
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3 Comments

  1. Comment by Ken — September 19, 2016 @ 3:55 pm

    I’m glad that you finally bought AMZN, it’s my biggest position.

    I’m not clear why you went long TRIP, with its declining revenue.

  2. Comment by ispeculatornew — September 20, 2016 @ 1:03 pm

    @Ken – Wow, great buy, no doubt, I’m increasingly of the belief that they will be difficult/impossible to stop in many areas. Great holding.. where did you buy?

    Hear you on TRIP. I might be stubborn but I do believe it is a unique player and it will continue to grow. Moving away from advertising ot its own booking platform is def an expensive move in the short term but I believe it’s the right long term move.

  3. Comment by Ken — September 21, 2016 @ 4:37 am

    I’ve owned AMZN since 250.

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