Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

20 Things you did not know about US ETF’s

By: IS | Date posted: 11.16.2010 (4:00 am)

1-The only ETF among the top 25 (by holdings) that does not pay dividends? GLD  – SPDR Gold Shares

2-The best performing ETF so far this year?  AGQ (ProShares leveraged Silver ETF)  +118,36%

3-How many leveraged ETF’s would you find in the top 25 ETF’s this year?  8

4-How many leveraged ETF’s would you find in the bottom 25 ETF’s this year?  22

5-Top Yielding ETF ? REM (Ishares NAREIT Mortgage Plus Capped)  – +10,41%

6-Youngest ETF ? NORW-  Nov 10th 2010 – Norway ETF

7-OIdest ETF ? SPY – January 1993 – S&P500 ETF

8-Biggest Fees ? Powershares CEF Income Composite – 1.81%

9-Smallest Fees ? VOO – Vanguard S&P500 – 0,06%

10-There are over 1000 ETF’s but the top 5 ETF’s account for 28% of assets

11-The Top 5% of ETF’s control 69% of ETF assets

12-Less than 16% of assets in ETF’s are invested into commodities despite all of the talk about them

13-GLD, the Gold ETF holds more physical gold than China’s government and is ranked only behind 7 other entities (US, Germnay, IMF, France, Italy, Switzerland & Japan)

14-Worst performing ETF so far this year? ZSL – ProShares UltraShort Silver: -71,15%

15-Best performing ETF in the past 5 years? IAU iShares Gold Trust +239,47%

16-Biggest country (by GDP) without an ETF to its name – Saudia Arabia (world #26 economy)

17-Most volatile  ETF in the last year: DRV -  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x Shares – 87.32%

18-While Ishares has 210 ETF’s (19.6%), they have 27 of the top 50 ETF’s ranked by assets

19-Guess which ETF is ranked #28 in terms of market cap but is actually the 2nd most traded ETF in the past 30 days? XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

20-Over 300 of the active ETF’s have been created since the start of 2009

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Incorporating company assets into my stock picks

By: IS | Date posted: 11.15.2010 (5:49 am)

As regular readers know, I am an avid user of the P/E ratio when selecting stock picks. There are many reasons why I trust this ratio above others and I have written about it but I’m not blind either, P/E ratio does have its flaws and limitations. One of those is its inability to help us see what a company owns. A few of the stocks that I follow such as Valueclick (VCLK) are stocks that have strong cash positions and a strong balance sheet in general which makes the P/E ratio give an incomplete picture of the reality.

Yahoo (YHOO)…

One of the best examples is Yahoo (YHOO), a company which I routinely bash on this blog but which is not as easy of a short as you would think. Why? Because when valuing Yahoo, I think it’s important to consider 3 main things:

-Strong balance sheet: Yahoo has almost 7 times as much assets as it has debt.
-Yahoo owns a major stake in Yahoo Japan which is a very profitable somewhat independant company
-Yahoo owns a major stake in Alibaba, one of the more important ecommerce companies in the world, located in China

What does it all add up to? Honestly, I think it’s important to consider the balance sheet saituation of a company when making stock picks. It sounds obvious when saying it but the P/E ratio would not consider it. In Yahoo’s case, the book value per share, the net assets per share is worth about 9$. Imagine if that number was 12$ or 13$… The company would need to be making almost no profits for the stock to be a good buy

What I will be doing from now on

There is no perfect solution to this and I will be doing some experiments but for now what I will be doing is incorporating the book value per share in my analysis, in the tables that I present when I do new stock picks and in the charts presented in the IS Premium newsletter. I have been monitoring this number and am not convinced that it’s the best way to go but there is no doubt about one thing: Adding this ratio will add valuable information for my future stock picks. In that regard, I think it will be very interesting to see how things go.

Would love to hear from you on this, do you look at the book value per share when making stock picks and if so, how do you consider them?

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Why I love trading

By: IS | Date posted: 11.10.2010 (4:00 am)

Most of us have passions, things that make us tick and that make us look forward to the next day when we wake up. It can be family, sports, movies, games and hopefully you have a few like I do. One of those that I enjoy most is finance and I have to say that I am lucky. Why am I lucky? Because one of my biggest passions is a domain where you can get good jobs that pay decent money and that provide reasonable life conditions. Don’t get me wrong, there are no inferior passions. That being said, life is not as “easy” for those that have a passion for painting or sculpture or a multitude of others. Not that you can’t have a good life as there are many examples of successful individuals in all of these domains. But I think it’s fair to say that the average painter has a more difficult time making monthly payments than the average finance worker. Is it write? No, not necessarily. Life is not always fair. I don’t think many jobs are more important than a teacher, especially when kids are starting off. But these teachers often have to live with more modest incomes.

Not all financial graduates end up having a lifestyle similar to what you hear about in movies (such as Wall Street) or newspapers. But on average, we can’t complain too much.

Why do I love the markets so much?

There are many reasons of course but the main ones for me are:

-Numbers: Some are good with names, facial recognition, remembering what they read, etc. Personally, one of my big strengths is dealing with numbers. I have a passion for them that is quite difficult to explain really. Ever since I was very little, I’ve enjoyed doing mental calculations, looking at any kind of stats (sports, demographics, finance, etc).

-No end to the learning experience: Many professions could say the same but there is no end to what I could learn. I could try learning about the markets in general, or a specific one (equities), a sector or even a company. I could learn about financial models, derivatives, balance sheets, financial statements, etc. There really is no end and in general, I think the more you work or spend time doing it, the better idea you get of what you like, what you’re good at, etc. I’m not fully convinced but over the past 5 years I’ve learned an incredible number of things.

-Most dynamic environment known to man: No offense and I guess it would be easy to debate on this but I can’t think of another environment that is as dynamic as the financial markets. Almost every single event that occurs in the world has some kind of impact on financial markets and the relationships between these events and the markets evolve and have been doing so for over a century. Very few individuals are able to consistently predict how the markets or even individual assets will react.

-Adrenaline: Trading provides high’s and low’s that has helped to find out my strengths and weaknesses. As much as you know what must be done, it becomes much more difficult when you have a losing position that is losing value. In the same way, selling winners is a big test to greed. At what point can I be “happy” with a trade? Over time, this has resulted in using trading rules (such as my limit loss & limit profits). Each of us react differently when trading which makes the experience that much more beneficial. Even the best of the best have difficult times at some point so you can imagine how much mortals like me can learn through trading.

Is it perfect?

No it’s not of course. Like everything else, there are some less glamorous sides to trading:

-Difficult to unhook: Unless you close out your positions, it’s difficult to completely ignore what is happening in the markets and that is certainly a problem. There are no easy solutions except maybe having a quick access through your phone or ipad so that you can check on things easily without spending too much time or energy. Also, I tend to reduce positions before going on vacations.

-Can be frustrating: No one involved with the financial markets doesn’t go through periods of serious doubts where the market reacts in ways that are contrary to our models, our philosophy, etc.

Conclusion

As you can imagine, there are no perfect jobs or hobbies but I consider trading to be close to perfect for me. I can think of maybe one other job that could easily compete but more in that at some point in the future:) What are your thoughts on trading? How much do you enjoy it? And why?

REIT dividend stock picks

By: IS | Date posted: 11.09.2010 (4:00 am)

Real Estate has been a major source of discussion on this blog and in almost any financial media or blog in the past few years as the price crash turned out to be a key component of the stock market crash and struggle of the US and world economy. While some still believe that real estate prices are too high, the major correction that has taken place certainly gives a lot more upsize than downsize.

Of course every region is different but the prices in the US have been more stable in the last year after falling off of a cliff.

The “bottom” of the real estate market will create a much more stable environment for owners of real estate and buying REIT’s (Real Estate Income Trusts) is something that passive income dividend investors should strongly consider. REIT’s typically offer good returns that include stable dividends.

There are many different ways to get exposure to the real estate market. Buying a REIT ETF is certainly a good way to do it and something that we have discussed in the past. But looking into the specific REIT’s can also be quite interesting.

Before getting started, you can see a chart of the S&P/Schiller Housing index and see that prices seem to have stabilized.

I took a look at REIT’s that pay dividends trying to find names that offer a high dividend and can afford to keep it going and even hopefully increase it. Take a look at the top REIT’s as per their dividend yield:

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Date
AGNCAmerican Capital Agency Corp27.9720.0381.2412/29/2010
IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc21.918.2649.2712/28/2010
CYSCypress Sharpridge Investments Inc13.4817.818.9512/29/2010
CIMChimera Investment Corp4.2616.974.8112/30/2010
TWOTwo Harbors Investment Corp9.2616.85N/A12/27/2010
RSOResource Capital Corp6.4115.6501.5112/29/2010
NLYAnnaly Capital Management Inc18.2614.971.812/27/2010
HTSHatteras Financial Corp29.814.7793.412/22/2010
BMNMBimini Capital Management Inc0.913.3341.08N/A
ANHAnworth Mortgage Asset Corp7.1712.83103.5212/22/2010
ACMCAmerican Church Mortgage Co3.3511.94239.07N/A
NYMTNew York Mortgage Trust Inc6.3511.3478.381/5/2011
MFAMFA Financial Inc7.9511.3293.812/30/2010
WACWalter Investment Management Corp18.0711.0732.411/16/2010
ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc16.359.79N/A12/28/2010
DXDynex Capital Inc10.699.3589.5612/29/2010
CMOCapstead Mortgage Corp11.189.3136.2812/29/2010
NRFNorthStar Realty Finance Corp4.389.15N/A11/3/2010
ZZCPPCorporate Property Associates 14 Inc98.89N/AN/A
MSWMission West Properties Inc6.998.58168.7612/29/2010
PCCPMC Commercial Trust8.157.85122.9212/29/2010
GOODGladstone Commercial Corp19.177.824194.9711/17/2010
IRETInvestors Real Estate Trust8.887.733765.8712/30/2010
ADCAgree Realty Corp26.417.7296.3312/17/2010
CWHCommonWealth REIT26.17.66518.2712/17/2010
SUISun Communities Inc33.637.5N/A1/12/2011
HPTHospitality Properties Trust24.117.47152.61/26/2011
MNRMonmouth Real Estate Investment Corp8.247.28N/A11/10/2010
MPWMedical Properties Trust Inc11.017.26159.2712/14/2010
OLPOne Liberty Properties Inc16.977.0726.8212/21/2010
FREVSFirst Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey177.06150.05N/A
RWTRedwood Trust Inc14.656.83194.1612/27/2010
UMHUMH Properties Inc10.596.79222.7211/10/2010
UHTUniversal Health Realty Income Trust36.3016.66152.9212/15/2010
PDMPiedmont Office Realty Trust Inc19.156.58266.3312/10/2010
STWDStarwood Property Trust Inc20.256.52N/A12/27/2010
GTYGetty Realty Corp30.136.37113.3912/28/2010
OHIOmega Healthcare Investors Inc23.746.23137.141/26/2011
LTCLTC Properties Inc27.086.2122.4311/18/2010
IRCInland Real Estate Corp9.26.2940.7211/26/2010
PTTTSPalmetto Real Estate Trust6.456.2121.81N/A
SNHSenior Housing Properties Trust24.566.03156.291/18/2011
CSACogdell Spencer Inc6.735.94N/A12/29/2010
GOVGovernment Properties Income Trust27.965.8701/19/2011
LRYLiberty Property Trust33.665.64647.3612/29/2010
PCHPotlatch Corp36.255.6399.6312/14/2010
DREDuke Realty Corp12.325.52N/A11/10/2010
GRTGlimcher Realty Trust7.245.51N/A12/29/2010
EPREntertainment Properties Trust47.395.49N/A12/29/2010
NNNNational Retail Properties Inc27.695.49243.851/26/2011

I would obviously ignore a few of the companies mentioned here since a few either:

-Have a payout ratio over 100% (paying more than they are making)
-Are not making any money at the moment (N/A payout ratio).

Those companies likely will be unable to continue paying their high dividends. Others however have a fairly stable dividend over 10% and seem Some of these companies have the ability to keep things up. I think the most important is to go over their financial statements to make sure that   their most recent financial statements show enough earnings and a positive “trend” (increasing revenues & profits ideally). So what is your opinion, do you expect to buy a REIT in your passive dividend portfolio?

Financial Ramblings

By: IS | Date posted: 10.30.2010 (5:00 am)

Good Saturday to all of you! Our retirement website DoNotWait.com still has a couple of days left to enter the contest to win an Ipad or other top prizes! Click here to learn the details.  There were many good readings, you can check out some of them here:

-M35 inc explained @ TheFinancialBlogger
-Bill Gates: The Miracle seeker @ Rolling Stone
-Tobacco stocks – where vice meets dividends @ TheDividendGuyBlog
-What would make me invest in the stock market? @ Balance Junkie
-Why following the crowd can lead to destruction @ KNSfinancial
-Where will your retirement income come from? @ DoNotWait
-Why currency hedged funds have large tracking errors @ CanadianCapitalist
-Low cost index trackers that will save you money @ Monevator
-Is Google a monopoly? @ The Big Picture
-12 stock for 10 years update @ Curious Cat

One of the tricky parts about an online strategy

By: IS | Date posted: 10.28.2010 (4:11 am)

Managing an online business has many pros and cons but one of the very interesting aspects of the business is having its users turn against the company. I did mention how it happened to Ebay but that was because of a fee spike which to many of us would not be shocking. The extent would probably be more surprising.

Users can gang up for much “smaller reasons”

TechCrunch first reported on this but following a major design release, Digg.com, one of the older and influential social players saw its users revolt.

How?

They simply managed to get all of the news stories on the Digg frontpage pointing towards pages from Digg’s competitor “Reddit”, you can see the screenshot. It’s fascinating but also scary for any online business. I’m convinced that psychologists could easily find out a lot about users through such actions but what is clear is this can become a major concern for companies that have an online presence.

It is something I consider when investing in internet companies. A company as big as Google or Microsoft is so big and so diversified that it is doubtful that such a problem would occur. But investing in a company like Facebook will always have a certain amount of risk involved because the day that having a Facebook user is no longer seen as “cool” or “in”, things can change very quickly. How quickly? Well, we have discussed MySpace which went from social king to almost extinct in less than 5 years. Yes, it can happen that fast…

Take a look at the effect on traffic:

The Facebook case

Personally, I think Facebook remains the most important company in terms of potential problems. It is has escaped privacy issues and complaints about its ad targetting and remains one of the most analyzed companies. The release of a movie a few weeks ago describing the start of Facebook and giving more info about Mark Zuckerberg will surely surprise many users and as you saw with Digg, it just takes a few influential users to have a major effect on even huge websites. Is it likely? No. I think most users see that Facebook has been constantly improving its product and thus give the company a lot of “slack”.

How to evaluate such a factor?

I think it’s important to follow the news and when problems start arising, you will hear about it. In the case of Ebay, public complaints and users starting to boycott the service made news in the blogs and social networks months before having a noticable impact on the stock.  That did create an opportunity for investors who were aware of the situation to take action in one way or another.

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