Archive for the ‘Free Stock Picks’ Category

Ultimate Sustainable Dividend Portfolio – April 2012 Update

By: IS | Date posted: 04.12.2012 (5:00 am)

Last year I did some in-depth research to find long term sustainable dividend stocks and have been doing updates on this Ultimate Sustainable dividend portfolio since then in the attempt to show how well such a portfolio can perform over the long term but also show how I would manage such a portfolio. I have said it before, I do not believe in stocks that you can hold “forever”. Thus, even in a long term portfolio such as this one, I will end up making some trades from time to time. I did do one last month so nothing new is coming in April. I do discuss the search for new high quality sustainable dividend stocks that can be added in our free mailing list, if ever you would like to receive those types of updates, please join, it’s free:


Keep in mind that this portfolio was built by selecting 20 stocks out of thousands. The goal is not to pick the 20 best dividend stocks but rather to pick a diversified, high quality portfolio that will keep dividends increasing over time.

Here are the holdings as of last night to start off (please note that currently, dividends are not reinvested automatically through a DRIP strategy):

TickerNameSharesSept 13 PricesSept 13 ValuesApr 11 PricesApril 11 Values
OMCOmnicom Group Inc25.7$38.91$999.99$48.20 $1,238.74
MSFTMicrosoft Corp38.4$26.04$999.94$30.35 $1,165.25
JCIJohnson Controls Inc34.8$28.74 $1,000.15 $30.86 $1,073.93
PEPPepsiCo Inc/NC16.5$60.54$998.91$65.15 $1,074.98
ETNEaton Corp25.4$39.31$998.47$46.16 $1,172.46
DOVDover Corp19.5$51.20$998.40$60.15 $1,172.93
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc23$43.41$998.43$55.36 $1,273.28
XLNXXilinx Inc32.2$31.08 $1,000.78 $35.44 $1,141.17
SJMJM Smucker Co/The14$71.65 $1,003.10 $79.79 $1,117.06
BLKBlackRock Inc6.6$151.22$998.05$197.81 $1,305.55
TROWT Rowe Price Group Inc19.9$50.36 $1,002.16 $61.80 $1,229.82
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp12.4$80.45$997.58$88.81 $1,101.24
COPConocoPhillips15.4$64.76$997.30$73.55 $1,132.67
MURMurphy Oil Corp19.5$51.33 $1,000.94
XOMExxon Mobil Corp14$71.65 $1,003.10 $82.70 $1,157.80
ADIAnalog Devices Inc30$33.28$998.40$37.94 $1,138.05
LLTCLinear Technology Corp34.1$29.33 $1,000.15 $32.14 $1,095.97
HASHasbro Inc27.8$36.03 $1,001.63 $36.03 $1,001.63
MATMattel Inc37.9$26.38$999.61$33.68 $1,276.47
INTCIntel Corp48.2$20.76 $1,000.63 $27.85 $1,342.37
AFL24.42$43.04 $1,051.04
Cash$2.27$332.98
USDPUSDP Total $20,000.00 $23,595.38

Dividends Received

Not much change here, March is done, April will be a slower month as was the case in January!:

 

Ultimate Sustainable Dividend Portfolio News

TickerNameNews
XLNXXilinx IncDividend increase from $1.375 to $1.50, a 9.1% increase

Returns

A few bad performances ended up meaning that the USDP is slightly under-performing the S&P500.. hopefully not for long

 

Trades

After adding Aflac (AFL) in last month’s update, I do expect to keep more or less the same stocks for a while now. We’ll see how things go:)

Closing Trade ($TZOO, $NILE)

By: IS | Date posted: 04.12.2012 (4:00 am)
Today, I am able to close a new trade, the one opened just 3 days ago when I went long Travekzoo (TZOO) and short Blue Nile (NILE). Why so quickly? Because Travelzoo is apparently putting itself for sale, which resulted in the stock rising nearly 30% today. Lucky? Maybe.. Who knows. But after being crushed on my short $AOL position, I’ll take this one. The average trade this year has returned 5.20% which is very solid (55% annualized)… hopefully it keeps up!

Closing 2 Trades ($AAPL, $AOL, $LNKD, $P)

By: IS | Date posted: 04.10.2012 (4:00 am)

Wow… yesterday was a brutal day. In last week’s tech stock newsletter, I wrote about the perils of shorting certain stocks. I certainly did not expect AOL (AOL) to be part of that group. But after announcing a surprise sale of patents to Microsoft (MSFT) for $1B or so, the stock shot up nearly 50%… killer. Thankfully, another one of my short positions, Pandora (P) moved down as well (no significant news).  The end conclusion is that the long Apple (AAPL) and short AOL (AOL) trade is now down 47,64%!. The long LinkedIn (LNKD) and short Pandora (P) position is up 25.32%… bringing the average trade return so far this year to 2.21%, not bad, but far off what it was on Friday. Oh well!

Both trades will be closed out on the open today:)

New Trade: Long Travelzoo ($TZOO) & Short Blue Nile ($NILE) – Battle Of Falling Knives?

By: IS | Date posted: 04.09.2012 (5:00 am)

It’s been a solid couple of weeks here for the stock picks. Despite being unable to close out new ones, my average long&short tech stock trade now averages well over 5% giving an annualized return over 50% so far this year. It doesn’t quite matchup to last year’s return but it’s still good enough for personal satisfaction. Add that to the current 2nd place in the stock picking competition, and a very solid performance of my 2012 Tech Stock Power Rankings (more on that in a few days) and you get the picture.

Thankfully, today I get a new option to trade. After announcing that I would now own up to 7 tech long & short trades at once last year, this is the first time I get the chance to do it. This and the upcoming Facebook IPO (FB just confirmed it would be listing on Nasdaq) expected to occur in May, these are good and exciting times. Today, I am opening a trade between 2 stocks that have been getting crushed in recent months, as you can see in their dismal trend analysis scores:)

TickerNameCategoryPriceEPSPE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBeta
TZOOTravelzoo IncTRAVEL21.490.215.0312.39(12.57)31.534.332.181.57
NILEBlue Nile IncMERCHANDISE29.590.837.9429.1(27.62)4.5432.541.28

Long Travelzoo (TZOO)

Well, funny how things happen. After spending much of last week researching Travelzoo, in order to determine if I did have regrets picking it as one of my 4 stock picks for 2012, I felt truly positive about the company. I did express my views on the company on Friday. Then, when looking through the companies that I follow this weekend, buying Travelzoo against Blue Nile seemed like a great opportunity. Why? They trade at comparable P/E’s despite having very different stories. I do think that this trade will end up doing very well:)

 

Short Blue Nile (NILE)

I know, I know, I look like a Blue Nile “hater”. I’m not. I’m just stunned over and over (and over and over) that the company continues to trade so expensively after so many years of continued disappointments. I did have a few successful trades already this year shorting Blue Nile against Apple 3 different times, all very successful trades!!! After that, I felt like I needed to get off of the bandwagon a bit in case NILE had a rebound. The stock has continued to fall though… but I still feel it’s overvalued. Clearly not as much as it was in January, but still overvalued. The company has absolutely no argument to justify its high price, its high P/E ratio, etc.

 

Disclosure: No positions on Travelzoo (TZOO) or Blue Nile (NILE), this trade will be opened on Monday morning

Top 100 Dividend Stocks – April 2012

By: IS | Date posted: 04.03.2012 (4:00 am)

I’ve written a few times about how looking at dividend yield could be misleading. One part of the reason is that some companies end up paying more than they can afford to. FTR is one obvious example and I will discuss it a bit later but there are many more.

Can you believe that only one of the top 10 companies actually has a payout ratio under 75%!! To me that is shocking. Dividend investing is about much more than finding a big yield, it is about finding longer term stocks that will be able to increase their dividend yields over time.

I wrote about why dividend investing is not just a trend and I think that finding the right stocks to include is a critical part.

Today, we are back with our list of the top 100 dividend stocks from the S&P500 and there is no surprise in who is on top. I would caution greatly against investing based only off of a dividend yield though.

Frontier Communications Corp (FTR)

No big surprise again this month as Frontier Communications Corp (FTR) remains at the very top of our top dividend stocks in the S&P500 with a dividend yield close to 10%. The yield has come down from its high of 17% a few months ago but remains high for 2 reasons:

-The stock’s price keeps diminishing
-No one expects the company’s dividend to actually remain so high (yes, FTR’s dividend WILL diminish)

The dark side of course remains that the company is paying out much more than it is actually able to make, making that dividend everything but sustainable. Every month, I do more in-depth research to find dividend names and FTR has never come out on top of that research..!!

We highly recommend that you join our free newsletter to receive more analysis and research about such stocks, sign up here for Free!

FTR’s Dividend Payout History

FTR’s days at the top of this chart are nearing its end in my opinion (of course, it’s not the first time I’ve said this). Not only is FTR going to likely announce a dividend cut later this quarter but if things keep up, it will not be able to remain in the S&P500… should be interesting! Next week, we will do further research on the 100 stocks listed here to determine which ones are more likely to do well in the long term both based on sustainability and the 20 things that we look for in dividend stocks.

In the meantime, here is the list!

TickerNamePriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Date
FTRFrontier Communications Corp4.179.59498.882012/06/08
WINWindstream Corp11.718.543082012/06/27
PBIPitney Bowes Inc17.588.5321.272012/05/09
RRDRR Donnelley & Sons Co12.398.39N/A2012/04/17
CTLCenturyLink Inc38.657.51269.642012/06/06
SVUSUPERVALU Inc5.716.13N/A2012/05/25
POMPepco Holdings Inc18.895.7193.852012/06/08
TAT&T Inc31.235.64259.742012/04/05
RAIReynolds American Inc41.445.489.542012/06/08
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc54.965.39516.212012/05/10
EXCExelon Corp39.215.3669.92012/05/11
MOAltria Group Inc30.875.3196.342012/06/15
VZVerizon Communications Inc38.235.24232.742012/04/05
GCIGannett Co Inc15.335.2212.472012/05/30
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc52.995.1392.982012/05/31
PPLPPL Corp28.265.151.612012/06/08
HCPHCP Inc39.465.07149.252012/05/03
TETECO Energy Inc17.555.0167.22012/05/10
ETREntergy Corp67.24.9443.742012/05/11
AEEAmeren Corp32.584.9172.252012/06/04
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc38.584.8756.892012/05/10
LLYEli Lilly & Co40.274.8750.222012/05/09
LEGLeggett & Platt Inc23.014.87101.242012/06/13
HRBH&R Block Inc16.474.8632.932012/06/08
FEFirstEnergy Corp45.594.83104.182012/05/03
LOLorillard Inc129.484.7964.782012/06/01
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc13.244.76111.122012/05/02
DUKDuke Energy Corp21.014.7677.342012/05/16
AVPAvon Products Inc19.364.7576.272012/05/18
PGNProgress Energy Inc53.114.67108.282012/04/11
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp34.514.67157.232012/06/18
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc30.614.6449.262012/06/08
LMTLockheed Martin Corp89.864.4540.932012/05/31
MRKMerck & Co Inc38.44.3976.822012/06/08
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp47.94.3869.772012/05/03
HCBKHudson City Bancorp Inc7.314.38N/A2012/05/02
CMSCMS Energy Corp224.3637.292012/05/02
SCGSCANA Corp45.614.3464.62012/06/06
VTRVentas Inc57.14.34143.612012/06/06
FIIFederated Investors Inc22.414.29642012/05/04
DTEDTE Energy Co55.034.2755.132012/06/15
SOSouthern Co/The44.934.2172.672012/05/03
PCGPG&E Corp43.414.1983.412012/06/29
EDConsolidated Edison Inc58.424.1466.892012/05/14
PAYXPaychex Inc30.994.1387.092012/05/03
DDominion Resources Inc/VA51.214.1281.392012/05/23
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc19.724.1143.712012/05/16
CVCCablevision Systems Corp14.684.0868.472012/05/10
WMWaste Management Inc34.964.0666.292012/06/01
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc41.564.04140.932012/05/16
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Co33.754.0360.962012/04/03
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp73.894.0169.582012/06/06
NYXNYSE Euronext30.01450.572012/06/15
SRESempra Energy59.96433.972012/06/22
KIMKimco Realty Corp19.263.95305.662012/04/02
NEENextEra Energy Inc61.083.9347.662012/05/30
XELXcel Energy Inc26.473.9360.12012/06/19
HASHasbro Inc36.723.9241.072012/04/27
PFEPfizer Inc22.663.8974.882012/05/09
RTNRaytheon Co52.783.7932.42012/04/02
NINiSource Inc24.353.7884.992012/04/26
MCHPMicrochip Technology Inc37.23.7559.842012/05/15
GASAGL Resources Inc39.223.6886.052012/05/09
MATMattel Inc33.663.6841.262012/05/21
CAGConAgra Foods Inc26.263.6645.882012/04/25
SAISAIC Inc13.23.64N/A2012/04/12
CACA Inc27.563.639.842012/05/18
SYYSysco Corp29.863.6252.472012/04/03
CLFCliffs Natural Resources Inc69.263.617.262012/04/25
HNZHJ Heinz Co53.553.5958.232012/06/20
AVYAvery Dennison Corp30.133.5868.982012/05/29
SESpectra Energy Corp31.553.5559.882012/05/09
CLXClorox Co/The68.753.49107.172012/04/23
PMPhilip Morris International Inc88.613.4857.822012/06/20
COPConocoPhillips76.013.4729.212012/05/24
IRMIron Mountain Inc28.83.4775.342012/06/27
JNJJohnson & Johnson65.963.4563.652012/05/24
CPBCampbell Soup Co33.853.4347.22012/04/04
WECWisconsin Energy Corp35.183.4147.192012/05/09
NUENucor Corp42.953.459.172012/06/29
GEGeneral Electric Co20.073.3857.492012/06/21
DPSDr Pepper Snapple Group Inc40.213.3843.672012/06/21
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The30.813.3657.632012/06/06
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc51.163.3636.832012/04/05
ABTAbbott Laboratories61.293.3363.692012/04/11
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc38.043.2931.152012/04/11
VNOVornado Realty Trust84.23.28112.732012/05/08
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp61.083.2726.032012/05/24
MTBM&T Bank Corp86.883.2243.042012/06/01
KKellogg Co53.633.2149.072012/06/01
PSAPublic Storage138.173.19110.392012/06/15
MWVMeadWestvaco Corp31.593.1768.992012/05/01
NUNortheast Utilities37.123.1749.562012/05/28
SLMSLM Corp15.763.1726.462012/05/30
GPCGenuine Parts Co62.753.1649.862012/06/06
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The67.213.1247.772012/04/25
CCLCarnival Corp32.083.1241.162012/05/16
PLDProLogis Inc36.023.11N/A2012/05/16
BMSBemis Co Inc32.293.156.012012/05/16
DDEI du Pont de Nemours & Co52.93.144.522012/05/09

Stock Picking Contest – Q1 Results

By: IS | Date posted: 04.02.2012 (4:00 am)

Today we are taking a look at the first quarter results from the friendly stock picking competition. After winning the first year, I was not able to repeat the next two ones so I was hoping to get back on top. So far, 3 of my 4 picks have done extremely well and honestly even the fourth isn’t terrible. That being said, while I am in second place, I’m nowhere near the top right now as WhereDoesAllMyMoneyGo did extremely well. That being said, 2nd place after a quarter with a very respectable return is a good start:) So let’s start by taking a look at my 4 picks:

Apple (AAPL) +48,04%

Clearly, I’ve been very bullish on Apple, ranking it #1 in my Tech Stock Power Rankings and writing a post about how crazy you’d be to not own Apple. It might be luck or whatever the reason might be, clearly, that has been a good call. Time will tell if it will keep up (I think so) but it’s not by luck that the 2 leaders have Apple (AAPL) among their picks.

Intel Corporation Inc (INTC) +16,85%

Both on the blog and in our mailing list, I’ve seen Intel Corp come out as one of the top dividend stocks that can be bought. It has an amazing business, trades at a decent valuation and should be able to keep increasing payouts for many years in the future.

Aflac (AFL) +7,03%

It’s not an exceptional return, but Aflac (AFL) is a very solid pick. It’s not by chance that Aflac is the stock that I decided to add to the Ultimate Sustainable Dividend Portfolio in my latest update.

Travelzoo (TZOO) -6,43%

I will be discussing Travelzoo (TZOO) later this week but I’ll simply say for now that I still have great belief in TZOO…more to come on Friday:)

So hopefully things keep improving in Q2… in the meantime, congrats to WDA who did very well in Q1. Here are the standings after Q1, I will be adding links towards their posts as they are published:

RankBlogReturn
1WhereDoesAllMyMoneyGo35.91%
2IntelligentSpeculator16.37%
3Dividend Mantra13.71%
4The Wild Investor11.78%
5My Traders Journal11.17%
6Beating The Index10.87%
7Millon Dollar Journey7.84%
8ThePassiveIncomeEarner4.77%
9DividendGrowthInvestor4.43%
10TheFinancialBlogger0.10%