Archive for the ‘Free Stock Picks’ Category

New Trade: Long Netflix ($NFLX) & Short Etsy ($ETSY)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 02.21.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my 7th trade of the year and surprisingly they are all still live. So far so good but no need to jinx it at this point. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
ETSYEtsy Inc12.9N/A59.279.6839.833.833.061.893N/AN/A
NFLXNetflix Inc142.22338.1260.1514.7130.263.956.231.4620.5923.4695.62

Both of the two charts that follow are tremendously bullish for AMZN. That it’s seeing revenue growth accelerate while much newer player Etsy’s growth is quickly declining and as you can imagine that is also reflected in the interest from Google trends.


credit: Google Trends

Long Netflix (NFLX)

I have a long term very bullish view on Netflix that I hope to write about very soon but suffice to say that I think the company is starting to gain incredible leverage from its position in the market and I do think that while it will hit occasional stock price hits (difficult to avoid them when trading at such high P/E’s), the company remains tremendous value at these levels and I do expect Netflix to keep driving both the top and bottom line forward in the coming years thanks to its position in the market where consumers see it as a must have and content producers are in many ways forced to sell their content to help their long term competitor.

Next earnings: April 24th


Short Etsy Inc (ETSY)

Etsy is another one of those great businesses from a client perspective but that I have strong doubts about from a investor’s point of view. I don’t think any of the users of Etsy directly competes with eBay and Amazon. I would disagree 100%. Fact is that both sellers and buyers can find/sell some of those items at eBay and Amazon and that will end up putting huge pressure on margins for Etsy making growth both on top and bottom lines more difficult. Customer service, shipping, the overall experience all end up being components where Etsy is competing with the sky-high standards that players like Amazon have created.

Next earnings: February 28th 2016

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not have a position on NFLX or ETSY

New Trade: Long Apple ($AAPL) & Short IAC Interactive ($IAC)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 02.10.2017 (6:50 am)

Today I am opening my 6th trade of the year between between 2 names that I have traded quite a bit over the years. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPLApple Inc132.4215.813.114.5-7.734.5424.811.214/25/201739.4211.5612.27
IACIAC/InterActiveCorp76.8228.0317.4217.78-2.824.323.841.085/2/201739.237.0547.37

 

Long Apple (AAPL)

The surprise here of course is not that I’m going long AAPL but rather that I wasn’t already long (apart from that long term speculative position). I continue to feel like the market is undervaluing AAPL but last year that trend clearly remained and I didn’t want to keep going against it. I do feel like that might have started reversing following its latest earnings release and continue to believe that there is a lot higher for the stock to go given its valuation. Yes, growth will remain a challenge for AAPL given its sheer size but it is also being priced much cheaper than the overall S&P500 and is the cheapest stock among the stocks that I follow in terms of forward P/E ratio. That is TOO cheap for a stock that will continue to grow steadily thanks to iphones but also services.

 

 

Next earnings: April 25th


Short IAC Interactive (IAC)

IAC has been proving for over a decade now how well managed it is and I expect that to continue. It has a very diversified business and has been able to knock out hit after hit over the years, spinning out several of those (EXPE, TRIP, MTCH for example) but I do think its valuation, especially when compared with Apple’s is expensive. IAC has been especially good at improving its bottom line in the past few years but AAPL has actually improved its top line at a higher pace.

 

Next earnings: May 2nd 2016

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do have a long AAPL position

New Trade: Long Priceline (PCLN) & Short Twitter (TWTR)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 02.01.2017 (7:11 am)

Today I am opening my 5th trade of the year between between 2 names that I have traded quite a bit over the years. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
PCLNPriceline Group Inc/The1575.1327.0621.569.299.264.64199.321.25181.0820.759.49
TWTRTwitter Inc17.62N/A28.283.9358.092.856.491.483.3599.28N/A

Long Priceline (PCLN)

For this trade, I wasn’t sure if I’d go long Priceline (PCLN) or Expedia (EXPE). Both have been solid performers and trade at comparable valuations but I do think a clear difference is that Priceline has been so steady over more than a decade. One truly impressive aspect has been its ability to generate both top and bottom line growth so consistently over time. That reduces the odds of a miss that could hurt this trade. For that reason, I’m going with PCLN even though it has (slightly) slower growth in recent quarters.

 

Next earnings: February 15th

Short Twitter (TWTR)

I have started writing a post about Twitter but the short story is that the company has been incredibly slow in improving its product and that is a big part of why its user growth has stalled. The company could be taken over of course but I think that’s a risk that’s worth it in these circumstances given its current valuation and growth perspectives. Twitter continues to be a great product to use and perhaps the application I spent most time on personally but it’s been unable to grow and I believe the issue is mostly around product execution rather than having a product that’s difficult to use or understand.

 

Next earnings: February 9th 2016

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not have a position on PCLN or TWTR

2 New Trades ($MSFT, $TZOO, $TRIP, $YELP)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.04.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my trades #3 and #4. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsMkt CapRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
EBAYeBay Inc29.6918.8514.389.1-2.253.516.111/25/2017$33,520,000,000.007.11-2.480.74
GOOGAlphabet Inc771.82N/A18.943.1513.624.8N/A1.211/26/2017$546,000,000,000.00#VALUE!18.7314.78
FBFacebook Inc115.0544.9222.0911.1743.824.6418.781.041/25/2017$336,200,000,000.006.449.44#VALUE!
PYPLPayPal Holdings Inc39.4735.0223.0310.3915.244.1511.77N/A1/25/2017$48,220,000,000.007.57#VALUE!#VALUE!

And the usual chart that I like to bring up:

In many ways, this is a bet on a reversal of what happened last year:

 

Long Microsoft (MSFT) & Short Travelzoo (TZOO)

Microsoft has been on quite a tear. Despite significant competition, it has been able to turn around many of its businesses, make smart acquisitions (LNKD) and also build solid cloud-based businesses. I’m a strong believer in what the company has been pulling off. On the other side is TZOO, a company that has been performing at a high level and that was a difficult one to short in 2016. I do think that will come back to earth at some point this year and am willing to get back on this short. I will of course be following this one closely but TZOO mostly depends on email marketing which is a solid business and I think the company has been optimising it carefully but there’s a limit to how much that can be done as it will need to be adding a lot more subscribers and thus driving a lot more new users. That is something I’m not seeing right now making me skeptical of its current valuation.

Long TripAdvisor (TRIP) & Short Yelp (YELP)

I did consider for quite some time going long TRIP vs a short on TWTR and as I’ll soon be writing about, I’m very skeptical of Twitter’s ability to turn things around. That being said, shorting TWTR carries a decent amount of risk (takeover, turnaround, news, etc) and for now I’m judging that YELP is a better short. These are two competing products in many ways but I believe TRIP is growing much faster. The big problem of course is TRIP’s inability to convert those numbers into growth in its financials. Last year was painful as a TRIP longer term owner but I do think TRIP offers much better value and that will be reflected over time. Look at a chart from Google trends that gives insight into their traffic evolution:

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I have a long position on $TRIP

2 New Trades ($GOOG, $EBAY, $FB, $PYPL)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.03.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my first 2 trades of the year As you can imagine, it will be nice to start from scratch following a not great year of long & short trading in 2016!! As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsMkt CapRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
EBAYeBay Inc29.6918.8514.389.1-2.253.516.111/25/2017$33,520,000,000.007.11-2.480.74
GOOGAlphabet Inc771.82N/A18.943.1513.624.8N/A1.211/26/2017$546,000,000,000.00#VALUE!18.7314.78
FBFacebook Inc115.0544.9222.0911.1743.824.6418.781.041/25/2017$336,200,000,000.006.449.44#VALUE!
PYPLPayPal Holdings Inc39.4735.0223.0310.3915.244.1511.77N/A1/25/2017$48,220,000,000.007.57#VALUE!#VALUE!

And the usual chart that I like to bring up:

 

Long Alphabet (GOOG) & Short eBay (EBAY)

I think it’s fair to say that times have changed at Google.. uhm.. I mean Alphabet. The company has doubled down on getting its spending under control and I think that was a smart and necessary move. Moonshots make sense and will remain part of Google’s core. I don’t think there are any doubts that some of them, including AI, self-driving, etc will end up having significant commercial applications and I am a believer in those segments of the company. But having no restrictions on the spending makes very little sense in my opinion and the cost-cutting that is happening will bring important benefits to the company. On the other side, I remain highly skeptical of ebay’s place in the online shopping marketplace in a world where Amazon’s dominance continues to increase month after month in almost every measurable way.

Long Facebook (FB) & Short Paypal (PYPL)

Facebook and Paypal are two clearly different companies and while you probably know that I have a deep level of admiration for Facebook’s execution, I also think Paypal is very well positioned and much more difficult to displace than believed by most. That being said, I do think PYPL’s valuation is very difficult to justify when I compare to how much growth Facebook is able to achieve. Yes, both are likely in declining growth periods but I do remain optimistic about Facebook’s position.

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I have a long position on $FB

Closing Last Trade of 2016 (GOOG, EBAY)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.02.2017 (3:00 am)

As you can imagine, I’m not too upset about closing the door on 2016 long & short trading. I will be starting off fresh in the coming days but tomorrow morning when the market re-opens, I will be closing off the final trade of the year, which is slightly up:

Long Alphabet (GOOG) & Short eBAY (EBAY)

 

Closing Trades

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 12.15.2016 (6:31 am)

Wow, you would not tell from my long & short tech stocks but this has actually been a very good year in terms of investing performance for me. That is because most of my income is invested in fairly passive ETF’s. That being said, today is another day where I’m closing some long & short tech trades that unfortunately didn’t turn out very well.

This morning I will be closing 4 of the remaining 5 live trades which are all at -20 or worse:

Long Expedia (EXPE) & Short Microsoft (MSFT)
Long Paypal (PYPL) & Short IAC Interactive (IAC)
Long Salesforce (CRM) & Short Zillow (Z)
Long Tripadvisor (TRIP) & Short Twitter (TWTR)

As is always the case, you can see all the long and short trades from 2017 (and previous years) here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Over the next few weeks I will be writing a bit about what I think went wrong this year and hopefully on the long & short stock picks, I can turn things around in 2017!

Closing Trade ($FB, $NILE)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 11.08.2016 (6:59 am)

nileIt is certainly fit that in what has been a tough year in terms of long & short tech stock trading, the one stock that has consistently been a good short finally ended up making me pay, and it was painful. Yesterday, as Blue Nile was in the news to release its quarterly earnings, it announced it had received and accepted an offer by a group led by Bain which was 33% over NILE’s stock value. No need to tell you that sent the stock way higher and crushed my FB-NILE trade:

 

nile_chart

As of today, that trade stands at -52.14% and will be closed on the opening today. As is always the case, you can see this year (and past years) long & short trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Closing Trade (AMZN-NFLX)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 10.27.2016 (5:58 am)

nflxIn what has been a difficult year of trading for the long & short tech stock picks, there have been a few ups and downs and I did of course know that shorting Netflix carried a decent amount of risk but I was willing to go for it. I’m not 100% convinced of AMZN’s threat to NFLX but I do think there is potential for AMZN to have an impact on Netflix’s membership growth but also its pricing power. As you can imagine, Netflix’s most recent earnings report, a big surprise in terms of international user growth sent the stock way higher:

nflx_chart

As of today, that trade stands at -32.48% and will be closed on the opening today. As is always the case, you can see this year (and past years) long & short trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

2 New Trades ($TRIP, $TWTR, $AMZN, $NFLX)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 09.19.2016 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my 18th and 19th trades of the year which will be my last 2 ones for the year (for tech long & short). It’s been a rocky year, my worst on record, hopefully these 2 help start a turnaround. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
TRIPTripAdvisor Inc61.2972.729.78-27.4819.743.0810.331.4111/3/201610.3618.9-8.13
TWTRTwitter Inc19.11N/A31.44-20.9258.093.056.451.3410/25/20163.35107.43N/A
AMZNAmazon.com Inc778.52191.1347.2613.8820.254.734.891.0210/20/2016229.1325.2N/A
NFLXNetflix Inc99.48304.1989.38-14.923.163.735.631.5310/17/201615.9221.8181.15

And the usual chart that I like to bring up:

Long Tripadvisor (TRIP) & Short Twitter (TWTR)

Being long Tripadvisor has certainly been a difficult position to hold in the past few months but I think it’s getting closer to its bottom. On the other hand, Twitter has been a big story in the past few months. There are some rumours that it will be acquired and that is clearly a risk but the company seems to be determined to find a better way out. The NFL deal has been perceived as a bid win for Twitter and in many ways it is. It got the rights for extremely cheap, was able to deliver a very solid broadcast in the first game, and got a lot of eyeballs. That being said, it remains unclear to me how this fits into the company’s longer term goals, how it will help deliver more visitors to its site or more money. I think the stock gains are clearly unjustified.

 

 

Long Amazon (AMZN) & Short Netflix (NFLX)

I will be writing more in-depth very soon about these two companies but I think one clear opinion is that Amazon is starting to create issues for Netflix, pressure on its growth and while I do remain optimistic about Netflix’s long term future, I think Amazon will put more pressure on NFLX’s margins and at these high valuations, I prefer the upside/downside risk of Amazon in this trade.

 

 

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I have a long position on $TRIP