Archive for the ‘Free Stock Picks’ Category

New Trade: Long Priceline (PCLN) & Short Travelzoo (TZOO)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 03.16.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my 10th trade of the year in what has so far been a good year. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
PCLNPriceline Group Inc/The1767.9828.2420.4520.6616.474.62200.221.23217.0719.0224.87
TZOOTravelzoo Inc9.219.3621.67-3.19-9.2931.311.359.18-3.44N/A

Revenue growth for PCLN unsurprisingly has been very steady over the years while TZOO is not seeing much positive

 

Long Priceline (PCLN)

Priceline has been one of the most consistent stocks not only in the tech sector but in the overall market for over 10 years. It has been able to improve its core products but also make timely acquisitions to cover areas that it was lacking. Priceline is the clear leader in the online travel space and while I do expect to see TRIP gain ground at some point, there really is no one that can challenge PCLN giving me confidence that they will be able to maintain steady growth on top and bottom lines as more of the travel booking dollars move online.

Next earnings: May 3rd 2017


Short Travelzoo (TZOO)

Continues to be challenging for me to understand how Travelzoo (TZOO) could be trading at a comparable forward P/E to Priceline. Not only has the company displayed very little top or bottom line growth but I’m not seeing much in terms of product innovation in a fast changing environment. I personally see TZOO’s model in a similar way to what Groupon was built on which still works but is clearly not doing as well these days.

Next earnings: April 27th 2017

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not have a position on PCLN or TZOO

New Trade: Long Salesforce ($CRM) & Short Twitter ($TWTR)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 03.06.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my 9th trade of the year in what has so far been a good year. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
TWTRTwitter Inc15.75N/A37.33-3.1314.052.66.381.483.687.05N/A
CRMsalesforce.com Inc82.22N/A50.1920.7625.874.7310.771.0912.229.49-155.43

Revenue growth for TWTR is in freefall while CRM remains steady:

Long Salesforce (CRM)

Today I am taking the rare step of trading 2 names that could end up seeing M&A activity. In many ways, Salesforce is in a very tough spot as it continues to compete with the likes of Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL), two giants that among other benefits, already have strong and deep corporate relationships making it more challenging for Salesforce to get its foot in the door. For that reason, Salesforce has been rumored to be for sale and has also tried to make its own splash by (among other moves), making a bid for LinkedIn, strongly looking at acquiring Twitter, etc. In the end, CRM remains in a solid position thanks to an extremely solid offering and like many other SAAS product, it has tremendous loyalty from its customers over time. I do think it’s valuation is tricky and would hesitate to go long outright but I do think that when compared with Twitter, this is a solid trade opportunity.

 

Next earnings: May 25th 2017


Short Twitter (TWTR)

What a mess… I wrote an in-depth article about Twitter recently on SeekingAlpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4043423-sad-story-twitter-told-recent-headlines

The company now seems serious about combating abuse but it is likely too little too late to stage a big turnaround. I do think that Twitter might end up being bought and as a user I’d like that to happen sooner than later to give it a better shot but as last year’s action clearly showed (where Salesforce the one serious bidder ended up not making an offer), finding a solid acquisition seems unlikely for the time being.

 

Next earnings: April 25th 2017

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not have a position on CRM or TWTR

New Trade: Long Amazon (AMZN) & Short Etsy ($ETSY)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 03.03.2017 (7:35 am)

Today I am opening my 8th trade of the year in what has so far been a good year. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
ETSYEtsy Inc10.66N/A38.73-9.2533.443.672.971.883.21N/AN/A
AMZNAmazon.com Inc848.91173.3644.9713.7627.084.7440.431.21286.8920.2453.25

Revenue growth for ETSY is quickly declining to AMZN’s levels despite being much smaller:

Here are the Google trends charts:

AMZN

ETSY

credit: Google Trends

How is it that Etsy, the much smaller player in a fast growing ecommerce sector isn’t growing much faster than AMZN? To me that is a tremendous warning sign.

Long Amazon (AMZN)

A few days ago I published a lengthy post about why I think despite its difficult valuation, AMZN is a must hold. I do recognize it will have its share of volatility, especially in shorter term periods but I think it’s a guaranteed (or as close to it as you can get) long term winner, you can read the full post here

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4049918-amazon-nearly-impossible-value-yet-remains-strong-buy

Next earnings: April 27th


Short Etsy Inc (ETSY)

I just closed a trade on ETSY after very disappointing earnings for Q4. I continue to be highly skeptical of ETSY’s current valuations, I don’t think it will be able to compete with the likes of AMZN and while it targets a different customer segment in many ways, AMZN has a tremendous effect on ecommerce in general putting high standards in terms of shipping, ecommerce, etc. That is putting pressure on smaller retailers like ETSY and I don’t think it can live up to its current valuation.

 

Next earnings: May 2nd 2016

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not have a position on AMZN or ETSY

Closing 2 Trades (PCLN, TWTR, NFLX, ETSY)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 03.02.2017 (7:06 am)

This morning I will be closing 2 of the remaining 6 live trades which will open a couple more spots which will hopefully mean adding a new trade tomorrow. On February 1st I opened a trade going long Priceline (PCLN) and short Twitter (TWTR) which has done well and currently stands at +31,35% after a continued collapse by Twitter and once again Priceline beating on earnings. As always, you can see my 2017 (and previous years) long and short trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

The second trade that I’m closing was traded a couple of weeks ago when I went long Netflix (NFLX) and short Etsy (ETSY). Yesterday, ETSY got crushed after disappointing Q4 earnings so that trade now stands at +25.63%.

Closing 1 Trade (MSFT, TZOO)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 02.28.2017 (6:59 am)

This morning I will be closing one of the 7 currently live trades which will open 1 spot to open a new one, hopefully tomorrow morning. On January 4th I opened a trade going long Microsoft (MSFT) and short Travelzoo (TZOO) which has done well and currently stands at +20,22%. As always, you can see my 2017 (and previous years) long and short trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

New Trade: Long Netflix ($NFLX) & Short Etsy ($ETSY)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 02.21.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my 7th trade of the year and surprisingly they are all still live. So far so good but no need to jinx it at this point. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
ETSYEtsy Inc12.9N/A59.279.6839.833.833.061.893N/AN/A
NFLXNetflix Inc142.22338.1260.1514.7130.263.956.231.4620.5923.4695.62

Both of the two charts that follow are tremendously bullish for AMZN. That it’s seeing revenue growth accelerate while much newer player Etsy’s growth is quickly declining and as you can imagine that is also reflected in the interest from Google trends.


credit: Google Trends

Long Netflix (NFLX)

I have a long term very bullish view on Netflix that I hope to write about very soon but suffice to say that I think the company is starting to gain incredible leverage from its position in the market and I do think that while it will hit occasional stock price hits (difficult to avoid them when trading at such high P/E’s), the company remains tremendous value at these levels and I do expect Netflix to keep driving both the top and bottom line forward in the coming years thanks to its position in the market where consumers see it as a must have and content producers are in many ways forced to sell their content to help their long term competitor.

Next earnings: April 24th


Short Etsy Inc (ETSY)

Etsy is another one of those great businesses from a client perspective but that I have strong doubts about from a investor’s point of view. I don’t think any of the users of Etsy directly competes with eBay and Amazon. I would disagree 100%. Fact is that both sellers and buyers can find/sell some of those items at eBay and Amazon and that will end up putting huge pressure on margins for Etsy making growth both on top and bottom lines more difficult. Customer service, shipping, the overall experience all end up being components where Etsy is competing with the sky-high standards that players like Amazon have created.

Next earnings: February 28th 2016

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not have a position on NFLX or ETSY

New Trade: Long Apple ($AAPL) & Short IAC Interactive ($IAC)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 02.10.2017 (6:50 am)

Today I am opening my 6th trade of the year between between 2 names that I have traded quite a bit over the years. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPLApple Inc132.4215.813.114.5-7.734.5424.811.214/25/201739.4211.5612.27
IACIAC/InterActiveCorp76.8228.0317.4217.78-2.824.323.841.085/2/201739.237.0547.37

 

Long Apple (AAPL)

The surprise here of course is not that I’m going long AAPL but rather that I wasn’t already long (apart from that long term speculative position). I continue to feel like the market is undervaluing AAPL but last year that trend clearly remained and I didn’t want to keep going against it. I do feel like that might have started reversing following its latest earnings release and continue to believe that there is a lot higher for the stock to go given its valuation. Yes, growth will remain a challenge for AAPL given its sheer size but it is also being priced much cheaper than the overall S&P500 and is the cheapest stock among the stocks that I follow in terms of forward P/E ratio. That is TOO cheap for a stock that will continue to grow steadily thanks to iphones but also services.

 

 

Next earnings: April 25th


Short IAC Interactive (IAC)

IAC has been proving for over a decade now how well managed it is and I expect that to continue. It has a very diversified business and has been able to knock out hit after hit over the years, spinning out several of those (EXPE, TRIP, MTCH for example) but I do think its valuation, especially when compared with Apple’s is expensive. IAC has been especially good at improving its bottom line in the past few years but AAPL has actually improved its top line at a higher pace.

 

Next earnings: May 2nd 2016

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do have a long AAPL position

New Trade: Long Priceline (PCLN) & Short Twitter (TWTR)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 02.01.2017 (7:11 am)

Today I am opening my 5th trade of the year between between 2 names that I have traded quite a bit over the years. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
PCLNPriceline Group Inc/The1575.1327.0621.569.299.264.64199.321.25181.0820.759.49
TWTRTwitter Inc17.62N/A28.283.9358.092.856.491.483.3599.28N/A

Long Priceline (PCLN)

For this trade, I wasn’t sure if I’d go long Priceline (PCLN) or Expedia (EXPE). Both have been solid performers and trade at comparable valuations but I do think a clear difference is that Priceline has been so steady over more than a decade. One truly impressive aspect has been its ability to generate both top and bottom line growth so consistently over time. That reduces the odds of a miss that could hurt this trade. For that reason, I’m going with PCLN even though it has (slightly) slower growth in recent quarters.

 

Next earnings: February 15th

Short Twitter (TWTR)

I have started writing a post about Twitter but the short story is that the company has been incredibly slow in improving its product and that is a big part of why its user growth has stalled. The company could be taken over of course but I think that’s a risk that’s worth it in these circumstances given its current valuation and growth perspectives. Twitter continues to be a great product to use and perhaps the application I spent most time on personally but it’s been unable to grow and I believe the issue is mostly around product execution rather than having a product that’s difficult to use or understand.

 

Next earnings: February 9th 2016

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I do not have a position on PCLN or TWTR

2 New Trades ($MSFT, $TZOO, $TRIP, $YELP)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.04.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my trades #3 and #4. As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsMkt CapRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
EBAYeBay Inc29.6918.8514.389.1-2.253.516.111/25/2017$33,520,000,000.007.11-2.480.74
GOOGAlphabet Inc771.82N/A18.943.1513.624.8N/A1.211/26/2017$546,000,000,000.00#VALUE!18.7314.78
FBFacebook Inc115.0544.9222.0911.1743.824.6418.781.041/25/2017$336,200,000,000.006.449.44#VALUE!
PYPLPayPal Holdings Inc39.4735.0223.0310.3915.244.1511.77N/A1/25/2017$48,220,000,000.007.57#VALUE!#VALUE!

And the usual chart that I like to bring up:

In many ways, this is a bet on a reversal of what happened last year:

 

Long Microsoft (MSFT) & Short Travelzoo (TZOO)

Microsoft has been on quite a tear. Despite significant competition, it has been able to turn around many of its businesses, make smart acquisitions (LNKD) and also build solid cloud-based businesses. I’m a strong believer in what the company has been pulling off. On the other side is TZOO, a company that has been performing at a high level and that was a difficult one to short in 2016. I do think that will come back to earth at some point this year and am willing to get back on this short. I will of course be following this one closely but TZOO mostly depends on email marketing which is a solid business and I think the company has been optimising it carefully but there’s a limit to how much that can be done as it will need to be adding a lot more subscribers and thus driving a lot more new users. That is something I’m not seeing right now making me skeptical of its current valuation.

Long TripAdvisor (TRIP) & Short Yelp (YELP)

I did consider for quite some time going long TRIP vs a short on TWTR and as I’ll soon be writing about, I’m very skeptical of Twitter’s ability to turn things around. That being said, shorting TWTR carries a decent amount of risk (takeover, turnaround, news, etc) and for now I’m judging that YELP is a better short. These are two competing products in many ways but I believe TRIP is growing much faster. The big problem of course is TRIP’s inability to convert those numbers into growth in its financials. Last year was painful as a TRIP longer term owner but I do think TRIP offers much better value and that will be reflected over time. Look at a chart from Google trends that gives insight into their traffic evolution:

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I have a long position on $TRIP

2 New Trades ($GOOG, $EBAY, $FB, $PYPL)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 01.03.2017 (3:00 am)

Today I am opening my first 2 trades of the year As you can imagine, it will be nice to start from scratch following a not great year of long & short trading in 2016!! As is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsMkt CapRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
EBAYeBay Inc29.6918.8514.389.1-2.253.516.111/25/2017$33,520,000,000.007.11-2.480.74
GOOGAlphabet Inc771.82N/A18.943.1513.624.8N/A1.211/26/2017$546,000,000,000.00#VALUE!18.7314.78
FBFacebook Inc115.0544.9222.0911.1743.824.6418.781.041/25/2017$336,200,000,000.006.449.44#VALUE!
PYPLPayPal Holdings Inc39.4735.0223.0310.3915.244.1511.77N/A1/25/2017$48,220,000,000.007.57#VALUE!#VALUE!

And the usual chart that I like to bring up:

 

Long Alphabet (GOOG) & Short eBay (EBAY)

I think it’s fair to say that times have changed at Google.. uhm.. I mean Alphabet. The company has doubled down on getting its spending under control and I think that was a smart and necessary move. Moonshots make sense and will remain part of Google’s core. I don’t think there are any doubts that some of them, including AI, self-driving, etc will end up having significant commercial applications and I am a believer in those segments of the company. But having no restrictions on the spending makes very little sense in my opinion and the cost-cutting that is happening will bring important benefits to the company. On the other side, I remain highly skeptical of ebay’s place in the online shopping marketplace in a world where Amazon’s dominance continues to increase month after month in almost every measurable way.

Long Facebook (FB) & Short Paypal (PYPL)

Facebook and Paypal are two clearly different companies and while you probably know that I have a deep level of admiration for Facebook’s execution, I also think Paypal is very well positioned and much more difficult to displace than believed by most. That being said, I do think PYPL’s valuation is very difficult to justify when I compare to how much growth Facebook is able to achieve. Yes, both are likely in declining growth periods but I do remain optimistic about Facebook’s position.

Disclaimer: Prior to opening this trade, I have a long position on $FB