Archive for October, 2015

Closing 1 Trade ($PCLN, $IACI)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 10.26.2015 (3:00 am)

$PCLNThis morning I will be closing a new trade, one of the 6 live long & short trades. While this year’s performance is not anywhere close where it’s been the past 2 years, it’s EXTREMELY encouraging to see the turnaround and the fact that we are now back into positive territory. The YTD return so far is +2,14%. Not great but i guess the market has generally done worse so I’ll take it.

Today, I’m closing a trade on Priceline (PCLN) and IAC Interative (IACI) that started on January 13th. Priceline continues to be a star and while I’m not necessarily negative on IACI, I just didn’t like the valuation.

PCLN_IACI_chart

See the trades from this (and past) years here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Closing 1 Trade ($TRIP, $TZOO)

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 10.15.2015 (3:29 am)

This morning I will be closing 1 of the 7 existing trades after TripAdvisor (TRIP) shut up almost 25% following its deal with travel giant Priceline (PCLN) to use its instant booking platform. That certainly helped my long TripAdvisor (TRIP) and short Travelzoo (TZOO) trade but more important is that I hold a more significant stake through my long term speculative pick on TRIP.  The trade currently stands at +$TRIP29,89% and also means that I’m back (very barely) into positive territory for my 2015 long and short trading. See the trades from this (and past) years here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

TRIP_TZOO_chart

Facebook, An Attractive Buy At These Levels

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 10.12.2015 (3:00 am)

$FBOver the years, I’ve written about the ecosystem play and how Facebook was one of a handful of names that was positioned to profit from its very strong ecosystem. That is quickly happening and while the stock has already gained tremendously, I believe a lot more upside is left.

The “New” Web

In a world where most internet users are going online through mobile devices, the starting point is no longer a Google homepage or even an internet browser. Rather, users start with their home screen where they access their apps. For more and more users, that means Facebook. In the US, the 2 most downloaded apps are Facebook and Facebook Messenger. Not far behind are Instagram and Whatsapp. In fact, AppAnnie has 4 of the top 6 apps of all time belonging to Facebook:

top10

credit: AppAnnie

Nearly all the time spent on mobile devices is spent in apps (rather than on the mobile web) and time spent in apps is even catching up to tv time:
tvapps

credit: TechCrunch

The Growth Of The “Closed Garden”

Remember the mission of Google to organize the world’s information? That is becoming increasingly difficult in a world where more and more of the information is within Facebook’s closed ecosystem. The first step was consumers talking to each other within the walls of Facebook, Messenger, Instagram. There is little doubt that Facebook has achieved that goal as users (by the tune of 1B in a single day) use the network to catch up with friends and family, share photos, videos and chat.

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsSales 5Y Avg Growth
FBFacebook Inc93.2494.3633.7718.5258.364.6814.020.8511/04/201558.4

FB_chart (1)From Consumers to Businesses

That is quickly growing though as businesses (from the biggest to the smallest) are increasingly using their Facebook pages to keep in touch with consumers and soon will be able to offer coupons and products for sale. Every time I see an ad by companies that send their users towards their Facebook/Instagram pages, I’m reminded of how much power and influence Facebook has been able to gain. On the core Facebook product, the company has been able to grow advertising spend by those businesses both by giving incredible ROI and by “selling” timeline views for users that have “linked” those business pages. I also think the “M” initiative for Facebook messenger is incredibly promising. If Facebook is able to help businesses communicate more efficiently with clients, that will certainly end up helping the top and bottom lines.

Facebook has also started enabling content creators to distribute content within its walls through videos and instant articles for newspapers/blogs/magazines. This sets Facebook up for massive success if it continues to focus on building its products, its audience and then moving to monetization. Facebook has obviously done very well in monetizing its core Facebook product through advertising but has yet to focus on that aspect for Messenger, WhatsApp and Instragram. I strongly believe that Facebook will continue to slowly “open the pipes” and see strong growth in its other properties. This will happen through advertising but also through payments, ecommerce, etc. These revenue charts will continue to display strong growth in the coming years:

FB_chart

Disclaimer: Long Facebook (FB)

Top 100 Dividend Stocks – October 2015 Edition

By: ispeculatornew | Date posted: 10.07.2015 (3:00 am)

Good morning and welcome to my most recent edition of the top S&P500 dividend stocks. Today, I decided to take a look at the most recent rankings and found a returning player at the very top with Frontier Communications Corp (FTR) back where it’s been on and off in recent months. There is absolutely no doubt that FTR has been a star if you’re looking at it in terms of dividend payments. That being said, the story has not been as compelling if you’re looking at a more global picture that would include the total return instead of only accounting for dividends. I tried looking at returns for the top few names here over 1Yr, 3Yr and 5Yr and comparing those returns to the overall return of the S&P500. Here you go:

topdvd

As you can see (not a huge surprise), stocks that are on top of this list have generally performed very poorly in the recent year and even over 3 or 5 years, when compared to the overall index. Does this mean they’ll continue to underperform if you buy them now? No, of course not. But these are not the most sound companies around so I would personally stay away from the top names on this list.

Do you hold any of them?

Here is the complete list:

TickerNameIndustryPriceDividend YieldPayout RatioEx-Dvd Date
FTRFrontier Communications CorpTelephone-Integrated4.7158.91308.7312/9/2015
CTLCenturyLink IncTelephone-Integrated24.618.76159.4612/3/2015
MATMattel IncToys19.97.65104.0311/23/2015
OKEONEOK IncPipelines32.347.48139.1711/4/2015
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DEPipelines27.7957.03194.9110/30/2015
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/ThePipelines38.066.6966.7312/9/2015
COPConocoPhillipsOil Comp-Explor&Prodtn47.826.1861.2410/8/2015
IRMIron Mountain IncREITS-Storage30.976.13321.4312/23/2015
HCPHCP IncREITS-Health Care37.076.11113.3111/5/2015
HPHelmerich & Payne IncOil&Gas Drilling46.695.8837.5211/10/2015
MURMurphy Oil CorpOil Comp-Integrated23.825.8623.0611/10/2015
NAVINavient CorpFinance-Consumer Loans10.985.8321.7812/9/2015
TAT&T IncTelephone-Integrated32.35.82154.7110/7/2015
GRMNGarmin LtdElectronic Compo-Misc35.235.79101.812/11/2015
VTRVentas IncREITS-Health Care55.965.65192.1512/17/2015
CNPCenterPoint Energy IncGas-Distribution17.685.5966.7811/16/2015
JOYJoy Global IncMachinery-Constr&Mining14.315.5922.6412/2/2015
SESpectra Energy CorpPipelines26.565.5685.2711/12/2015
MROMarathon Oil CorpOil Comp-Integrated15.235.4856.1411/16/2015
CVXChevron CorpOil Comp-Integrated77.885.4741.211/18/2015
VZVerizon Communications IncTelephone-Integrated42.85.2889.1810/7/2015
ETREntergy CorpElectric-Integrated64.195.1863.3511/10/2015
PMPhilip Morris International IncTobacco79.025.1581.6112/21/2015
STXSeagate Technology PLCComputers-Memory Devices42.425.0738.1311/3/2015
NOVNational Oilwell Varco IncOil Field Mach&Equip36.375.0428.6912/9/2015
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts IncREITS-Hotels15.855.0477.412/31/2015
SOSouthern Co/TheElectric-Integrated44.0254.9395.0411/5/2015
HCNWelltower IncREITS-Health Care67.114.92221.5511/5/2015
ORealty Income CorpREITS-Single Tenant47.124.86213.2310/30/2015
CATCaterpillar IncMachinery-Constr&Mining63.964.8145.110/22/2015
GMGeneral Motors CoAuto-Cars/Light Trucks30.144.7768.7612/11/2015
COHCoach IncRetail-Apparel/Shoe28.254.7692.5712/7/2015
FEFirstEnergy CorpElectric-Integrated30.384.74283.9411/4/2015
RIGTransocean LtdOil&Gas Drilling12.644.74N/A11/11/2015
DUKDuke Energy CorpElectric-Integrated70.224.790.5711/18/2015
PPLPPL CorpElectric-Distribution32.294.6861.8612/9/2015
WYWeyerhaeuser CoREITS-Diversified26.784.6372.4310/28/2015
OXYOccidental Petroleum CorpOil Comp-Explor&Prodtn65.664.55N/A12/9/2015
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co IncREITS-Diversified39.264.49145.7911/18/2015
ESVEnsco PLCOil&Gas Drilling13.374.47N/A12/10/2015
POMPepco Holdings IncElectric-Integrated24.154.47112.412/11/2015
FFord Motor CoAuto-Cars/Light Trucks13.54.4361.2510/28/2015
EMREmerson Electric CoElectric Products-Misc42.684.3956.3611/18/2015
ETNEaton Corp PLCDiversified Manufact Op50.294.3651.8311/5/2015
PBCTPeople's United Financial IncS&L/Thrifts-Eastern US15.444.3477.8610/28/2015
EXCExelon CorpElectric-Integrated29.174.2666.5211/17/2015
KLACKLA-Tencor CorpSemiconductor Equipment48.84.25819.9211/12/2015
IPInternational Paper CoPaper&Related Products37.974.21109.1811/13/2015
MOAltria Group IncTobacco53.814.277.9412/22/2015
CCICrown Castle International CorpREITS-Diversified78.84.16179.3212/16/2015
PLDPrologis IncREITS-Warehouse/Industr38.784.13107.412/14/2015
AESAES Corp/VAElectric-Integrated9.814.0818.0510/29/2015
SPLSStaples IncRetail-Office Supplies11.8354.05228.6212/23/2015
KSSKohl's CorpRetail-Regnl Dept Store44.954.0136.5612/5/2015
XOMExxon Mobil CorpOil Comp-Integrated73.53.9735.5711/9/2015
NUENucor CorpSteel-Producers37.483.977012/30/2015
EDConsolidated Edison IncElectric-Integrated65.663.9667.5911/16/2015
SCGSCANA CorpElectric-Integrated55.053.9655.3912/10/2015
AEEAmeren CorpElectric-Integrated41.63.9566.5412/7/2015
DOWDow Chemical Co/TheChemicals-Diversified42.483.9552.1912/30/2015
KIMKimco Realty CorpREITS-Shopping Centers24.413.94118.9412/28/2015
NRGNRG Energy IncIndepend Power Producer14.783.93231.2310/28/2015
WYNNWynn Resorts LtdCasino Hotels51.623.8786.2311/6/2015
PBIPitney Bowes IncOffice Automation&Equip19.513.8450.5311/18/2015
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co IncElectric-Integrated55.993.7961.0811/10/2015
PNWPinnacle West Capital CorpElectric-Integrated63.073.7864.5910/29/2015
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group IncElectric-Integrated41.243.7849.3312/7/2015
ABBVAbbVie IncMedical-Drugs54.063.76157.3410/13/2015
DDominion Resources Inc/VAElectric-Integrated69.123.75106.7511/23/2015
VIABViacom IncMultimedia42.563.7522.7612/15/2015
DTEDTE Energy CoElectric-Integrated78.593.7252.4912/17/2015
CMICummins IncEngines-Internal Combust104.953.7131.0111/11/2015
PGProcter & Gamble Co/TheCosmetics&Toiletries71.623.785.110/21/2015
MRKMerck & Co IncMedical-Drugs48.633.6943.2612/11/2015
GEGeneral Electric CoDiversified Manufact Op24.883.6958.3212/17/2015
CACA IncEnterprise Software/Serv27.243.6854.8111/24/2015
XELXcel Energy IncElectric-Integrated34.763.6859.5612/22/2015
IBMInternational Business Machines CorpComputer Services141.93.6627.311/4/2015
MOSMosaic Co/TheAgricultural Chemicals30.043.6638.0111/30/2015
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NVChemicals-Diversified85.513.6533.5711/19/2015
QCOMQUALCOMM IncSemicon Compo-Intg Circu53.113.6134.8811/25/2015
GMEGameStop CorpRetail-Computer Equip40.263.5737.8511/27/2015
PFEPfizer IncMedical-Drugs31.423.5573.6411/4/2015
WECWEC Energy Group IncElectric-Integrated51.663.5459.8211/12/2015
PAYXPaychex IncData Processing/Mgmt47.653.5281.7611/2/2015
IVZInvesco LtdInvest Mgmnt/Advis Serv30.933.4942.7611/18/2015
MCDMcDonald's CorpRetail-Restaurants97.843.4867.611/27/2015
CINFCincinnati Financial CorpMulti-line Insurance53.053.4754.8612/21/2015
PCGPG&E CorpElectric-Integrated52.453.4760.0312/30/2015
TETECO Energy IncElectric-Integrated26.163.4496.5111/10/2015
MCHPMicrochip Technology IncElectronic Compo-Semicon41.633.4377.6311/18/2015
WUWestern Union Co/TheCommercial Serv-Finance18.053.4331.1112/17/2015
MACMacerich Co/TheREITS-Regional Malls76.893.3923.9711/9/2015
ESEversource EnergyElectric-Integrated49.373.3860.5912/9/2015
NINiSource IncGas-Distribution18.4153.3761.1610/28/2015
SPGSimon Property Group IncREITS-Regional Malls183.723.37116.3111/16/2015
GASAGL Resources IncGas-Distribution60.733.3641.4611/18/2015
CMSCMS Energy CorpElectric-Integrated34.653.3561.3611/4/2015
KOCoca-Cola Co/TheBeverages-Non-alcoholic39.73.3276.0811/25/2015
DEDeere & CoMachinery-Farm72.453.3125.4212/31/2015