2012 has been a great year so far in terms of trading. I have opened 6 trades with 3 of those already have reached their “stop gain” limits…! I would like to reach my new limit of 7 open trades but I certainly can’t complain about how things have been going so far. I’ve also received many great questions about the trades both on the blog and in the tech newsletter (join now if you have not done already), I am getting through them, but appreciate all of the feedback. I am certainly feeling less nervous than just a few weeks ago.
I would also like to invite you to see how I calculate my returns for long & short tech stocks.
Today I am opening a trade that I was looking forward to doing. I wanted to go long Google against Valueclick, two advertising plays because I think that as the industry evolves, Google will end up doing much better. I wasn’t confident about Google’s earnings though and I turned out to be right to not buy Google ahead of its earnings. Now that the stock has declined, I am ready to go ahead!
test Tech Stock Power Rankings and while it was even more attractive a few weeks ago, I still think it’s a great buy and AOL is in many ways a very easy stock to short.
Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:
Ticker Name Price EPS PE Ratio PE Next Year Return YTD Sales Growth Analyst rating Book Value Beta
VCLK ValueClick Inc 17.52 0.99 14.83 11.06 4.67 1.91 4.11 6.97 1.2
GOOG Google Inc 579.98 30.17 19.10 11.55 (12.05) 29.28 4.59 176.73 1.05
Long Google (GOOG)
Google, an incredible power and one of the top names in my 2012 Tech Stock Power Rankings but the company did come up short of most forecasts. I do still think the company is a great buy at this price and there is no logic to me of having Google and Valueclick trading at similar P/E ratios for next year. Clearly, Google has a ton of momentum in social (not likely to have an impact in revenues/profits soon) but also in mobile through Android (this one will!), I think Google will continue to increase revenues at a quick pace and is well positioned despite the soft advertising market.
Short Valueclick (VCLK)
Valueclick used to be a company that I truly believed in. Being a small player competing against the likes of Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB), Yahoo (YHOO) and others has made things very difficult for Valueclick though. It is simply having trouble coming up with enough innovative solutions to keep up with competitors and while the revenues have increased significantly in recent quarters, I don’t see that keeping up. I don’t think there is any doubt that GOOG can outperform in terms of growth.
Disclosure: No positions on Google (GOOG) or Valueclick (VCLK) but this trade will be opened on Monday morning









With the Super Bowl a few days away, many of us fans are wondering how we would ever pay for Super Bowl tickets. 





Is It Unamerican To Have An Optimized Fiscal Setup?
That being said, if possible, please set aside that part of the debate. Let’s only talk about the fact that there is outrage all over the country over the fact that Mitt Romney has been paying less than 15% of taxes on his income in the past 2 years despite being in that “1% group”.
It’s sad to say but there are countless ways to legally avoid paying taxes. With the internationalization, it is becoming much easier for companies to pay almost no taxes as has been discussed in some of my previous posts. As individuals become richer, their income and tax situation can easily become similar to what companies are able to do. I’m not saying it’s fair but it’s the way things are. Until we admit that fact, we’ll be stuck arguing on details. Are there solutions? Yes. But they’re not easy at all.
Mitt Romney is paying less than 15% on his taxes. What does that prove? That he was smart enough to get help to legally diminish the amount of taxes that he paid.
Wouldn’t You Do The Same?
I mean honestly, if you have 2 stocks, one that pays high dividends and another that will accumulate capital gains, you’d be smart to put the one that pays dividends in a tax deferred account such as a 401K or a RRSP (in Canada). That would be the smart thing to do. Trying to get all possible deductions that you are allowed under the tax code is also SMART.
I mean seriously, when is the last time you passed on a deduction in order to do “your fair share”?
“Yes, But He’s Rich”
That would be the common argument. Sure, Mitt Romney is rich. But chances are that you are also much richer than the average American. At what point should you “stop looking for ways to improve your bottom line”? I’m not talking about acting illegally or anything like that. At what point? When you make $50,000/year? 100K? 200K? $1 million? There is no clear answer of course.
Mitt Romney Has Many Issues To Defend
However, I don’t see paying few taxes as being one of them. It simply proves that he is smart and plays by the rule.
Tax Efficiency Is Too Often Overlooked
I personally think that being tax efficient is critical over time and makes a huge difference. Why so many investors spend tons of time on asset allocation, commissions, fees for funds/ETF’s and other areas without even spending a few hours to optimize their tax expenses blows me away. It can end up making a tremendous difference.
Any thoughts on all of this? Am I way off in your opinion?