Archive for January, 2012

Is It Unamerican To Have An Optimized Fiscal Setup?

By: IS | Date posted: 01.31.2012 (6:00 am)

I know, this might not be the most “popular” post, and I’m far from a Mitt Romney fan, believe me. That being said, am I the only one that finds it a bit over the top to criticize him for paying 15% of taxes. He’s not the one that put in place tax incentives and tax breaks. Sure, you could blame him for voting against repealing those tax breaks while being in favor of others. Clearly, guys like him are probably not the ones that should be able to escape tax increases in the coming years.

That being said, if possible, please set aside that part of the debate. Let’s only talk about the fact that there is outrage all over the country over the fact that Mitt Romney has been paying less than 15% of taxes on his income in the past 2 years despite being in that “1% group”.

It’s sad to say but there are countless ways to legally avoid paying taxes. With the internationalization, it is becoming much easier for companies to pay almost no taxes as has been discussed in some of my previous posts. As individuals become richer, their income and tax situation can easily become similar to what companies are able to do. I’m not saying it’s fair but it’s the way things are. Until we admit that fact, we’ll be stuck arguing on details. Are there solutions? Yes. But they’re not easy at all.

Mitt Romney is paying less than 15% on his taxes. What does that prove? That he was smart enough to get help to legally diminish the amount of taxes that he paid.

Wouldn’t You Do The Same?

I mean honestly, if you have 2 stocks, one that pays high dividends and another that will accumulate capital gains, you’d be smart to put the one that pays dividends in a tax deferred account such as a 401K or a RRSP (in Canada). That would be the smart thing to do. Trying to get all possible deductions that you are allowed under the tax code is also SMART.

I mean seriously, when is the last time you passed on a deduction in order to do “your fair share”?

“Yes, But He’s Rich”

That would be the common argument. Sure, Mitt Romney is rich. But chances are that you are also much richer than the average American. At what point should you “stop looking for ways to improve your bottom line”? I’m not talking about acting illegally or anything like that. At what point? When you make $50,000/year? 100K? 200K? $1 million? There is no clear answer of course.

Mitt Romney Has Many Issues To Defend

However, I don’t see paying few taxes as being one of them. It simply proves that he is smart and plays by the rule.

Tax Efficiency Is Too Often Overlooked

I personally think that being tax efficient is critical over time and makes a huge difference. Why so many investors spend tons of time on asset allocation, commissions, fees for funds/ETF’s and other areas without even spending a few hours to optimize their tax expenses blows me away. It can end up making a tremendous difference.

Any thoughts on all of this? Am I way off in your opinion?

New Trade: Long Google (GOOG) & Short Valueclick (VCLK)

By: IS | Date posted: 01.30.2012 (5:00 am)

2012 has been a great year so far in terms of trading. I have opened 6 trades with 3 of those already have reached their “stop gain” limits…! I would like to reach my new limit of 7 open trades but I certainly can’t complain about how things have been going so far. I’ve also received many great questions about the trades both on the blog and in the tech newsletter (join now if you have not done already), I am getting through them, but appreciate all of the feedback. I am certainly feeling less nervous than just a few weeks ago.

I would also like to invite you to see how I calculate my returns for long & short tech stocks.

Today I am opening a trade that I was looking forward to doing. I wanted to go long Google against Valueclick, two advertising plays because I think that as the industry evolves, Google will end up doing much better. I wasn’t confident about Google’s earnings though and I turned out to be right to not buy Google ahead of its earnings. Now that the stock has declined, I am ready to go ahead!

test Tech Stock Power Rankings and while it was even more attractive a few weeks ago, I still think it’s a great buy and AOL is in many ways a very easy stock to short.

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePriceEPSPE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBeta
VCLKValueClick Inc17.520.9914.8311.064.671.914.116.971.2
GOOGGoogle Inc579.9830.1719.1011.55(12.05)29.284.59176.731.05

Long Google (GOOG)

Google, an incredible power and one of the top names in my 2012 Tech Stock Power Rankings but the company did come up short of most forecasts. I do still think the company is a great buy at this price and there is no logic to me of having Google and Valueclick trading at similar P/E ratios for next year. Clearly, Google has a ton of momentum in social (not likely to have an impact in revenues/profits soon) but also in mobile through Android (this one will!), I think Google will continue to increase revenues at a quick pace and is well positioned despite the soft advertising market.

Short Valueclick (VCLK)

Valueclick used to be a company that I truly believed in. Being a small player competing against the likes of Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB), Yahoo (YHOO) and others has made things very difficult for Valueclick though. It is simply having trouble coming up with enough innovative solutions to keep up with competitors and while the revenues have increased significantly in recent quarters, I don’t see that keeping up. I don’t think there is any doubt that GOOG can outperform in terms of growth.

Disclosure: No positions on Google (GOOG) or Valueclick (VCLK) but this trade will be opened on Monday morning

Weekend Readings

By: IS | Date posted: 01.28.2012 (6:06 am)

Good Saturday to all of you:) I thought the image on the right was a great way to put it. It’s an extremely difficult problem to tackle and clearly not only about changing the government but I thought it was a great simplification:) Here are some of the good reading from the past few days:

-Overconfidence is bad @ DarwinsMoney
-Fee only vs fee based financial advisor @ GoodFinancialCents
-Greece about to officially “default”? @ ZeroHedge
-Asset Protection Strategies @ MoneyCrashers

Dividend Reads

-Solid dividend players with powerful brands @ DividendMonk
-GNV stock analysis @ TheDividendGuyBlog
-Active Dividend Growth Investing @ DividendGrowthInvestor

Tech Readings

-Apple’s impossibly good quarter @ CuriousCat
-Facebook to file for IPO as early as Wednesday? @ TechCrunch
-Big beat by Netflix (NFLX) @  ZeroHedge

Free Super Bowl Tickets Thanks to eBay’s ($EBAY) Flaws?

By: IS | Date posted: 01.27.2012 (5:00 am)

With the Super Bowl a few days away, many of us fans are wondering how we would ever pay for Super Bowl tickets. I’m a Colts fan so obviously going to see the Super Bowl in Indianapolis would have been nice, even without those Colts being part of the game. Do you think you could never afford or never want to pay that much for a Super Bowl ticket? How about going for free?

Unfortunately, today’s post is not a happy story, it’s the story from the other end of the table. A friend of mine is a big hockey fan and lives in Montreal. He had bought some Montreal Canadiens tickets at the start of the year under both his name and his wife’s name (there is a limit per person). Unfortunately, for one of those games, he was unable to attend. What to do?

He decided to put those 2 tickets up for sale on eBay, great idea right?

A few days later, some guy bought the tickets for more or less the cost

The buyer then sent the money using Paypal to the seller who then sent away the electronic tickets

The buyer received the tickets and was surprised to see another name on the tickets. The seller confirmed they were right, gave his phone number in case something went wrong (he was going to be near the stadium on that evening)

The game night came and went, without any issues

Then, one week later or so, the buyer contacted the seller saying he had never been able to get in with the tickets, had been refused entry and wanted to a refund. The seller inquired why he did not contact him earlier or why he did not call… The buyer said he had lost the phone number and he had tried to contact him earlier but never gave any proof or explained how it was done.

The seller offered to go with the buyer to the stadium to get some kind of solution (if the ticket had been refused, that was certainly an error)..but the buyer was not interested, he simply wanted his refund

There are probably 2 possible explanations:

#1-The buyer forgot to go to the game and wanted to get a refund

#2-The buyer simply wanted to see a free game

You might think that there is no way that eBay/Paypal would rule in favor of the buyer here right? Wrong.. Since the buyer paid by Credit Card and complained to his credit card issuer, he ended up winning despite proofs of emails sent. Crazy right? It certainly makes me think twice about dealing with eBay again from the seller point of view. What could have been done differently? A few things I guess… But one thing is for sure, my friend ended up losing both his tickets and the money he had made selling the

Investment Opportunities?

I think this is actually another case for Facebook. In an online, virtual world, there are very few ways to verify the identity of someone. Sure, eBay has an online “reputation” score (the buyer had 2) but I think that Facebook will be able to deliver a more “trustable” environment for ecommerce than what currently exists. I still believe in eBay to some extent but I can only imagine that stories like that happen very often and it must be very costly for eBay & Paypal to deal with such issues. That is probably one more reason why eBay’s auction business has taken a back seat in the whole picture.

Disclosure: No current positions on eBay (EBAY)

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on EBay at Wikinvest

Closing Long Dice Holdings (DHX) & Short Monster Worldwide (MWW)

By: IS | Date posted: 01.27.2012 (2:55 am)

For a third time this year, I am able to close a trade, the one where I went long Dice Holdings (DHX) and Monster Worldwide (MWW) which currently stands at +29,27%. How did it get to this point? Mainly thanks to Monster which announced disappointing results, as has often been the case lately. They also announced lower revenues and profits expectations than most analysts expected sending the stock down over 20% today…!

More on this topic (What's this?)
MNST
Read more on Dice Holdings, Dice Holdings Inc, Monster Worldwide at Wikinvest

Dividend Investing Is Not Just A Trend

By: IS | Date posted: 01.26.2012 (5:05 am)

It’s a bit annoying honestly. Why in the world do so many people in the media and elsewhere like to punch on dividend investing and those that use it. I’m not saying that it’s a perfect investing method or even the best one around, but saying that it’s just a fade or a big bubble is at least as ridiculous. I’m not sure if those writing such stories do so just because it will make a good story, to get a good story out there or if they truly believe it. Here are the top reasons why I think that dividend investing is not only there to stay but will actually become much bigger over time:

DIY (Do It Yourself) Investors

A few decades ago, the only people investing in the markets were professionals. Sure, you had the exception here and there that was buying and selling stocks but for the most part, individuals that had money had a broker that would try to get the best returns possible. That has changed in recent years. Why? Because of the exaggerated fees that were being charged, because an increasing amount of information has been made available to the public through the internet

Add to that the appearance of discount brokers that have made it cheap and easy for individuals to buy stocks, making what would have been very difficult a few years ago, a growing trend.

Dividend Investing Is An Amazing Long Term Investing Method

What is the reason most players end up losing big when they go to a casino? Sure, the odds are stacked against players but there’s also the fact that very few people enter a casino with rules regarding how they will play, how much they are putting into play, etc. It takes discipline for investors to be successful. For most of us, that means haviing a clear, easy to follow  set of rules that can be followed.

How in the world can most of us tell what Exxon (XOM) might be worth or if we should be buying gold, oil, Euros, etc. The investment world is incredibly complex and I think there is something to be said for having a simple but reliable system to make investments.

A Stock’s Value = ?????

The basics of finance are that the value of a stock is:

Stock value = Present value of all future cash flows

In almost all cases, dividends are the only type of cash flows that shareholders do receive so I think that it makes a lot of sense to invest from that perspective. One counter-argument would be that doing so will end up excluding many high growth stocks like Apple (AAPL). Fair enough. But if you use that argument, there is no end really. You could probably add real estate, futures, commodities, currencies, alternative assets, foreign companies, etc. There is no end. So I don’t think there’ s anything bad with using a smaller universe (dividend stocks) to find our investments.

It Provides A Clear And Easy To Follow Methodology

Unless you are a professional (and even those might struggle), you’ll have a hard time telling me what any given stock is worth. However, if I ask you a different type of question, the common investor might be able to do exactly that:

-How much will this stock pay you back and how likely will that amount increase (and by how much) over time?

The 2nd answer is not easy by any means, but it’s certainly much easier to get my head around it.

Psychology Change

I’ve also discussed the importance of seeing a dividend portfolio as what it should be, an increasing amount of cash flows. Sure, we’d all like the “value” of the portfolio to increase, but in the end, that is not what it’s about. It’s about making enough money to pay for your retirement when that time comes. I’ve also discussed how I believe a dividend portfolio is much better alternative to annuities. From that perspective, trying to buy dividend stocks makes a lot more sense to me than trying to find undervalued growth stocks.

I would love to hear your thoughts on this, do you think dividend investing will end up being just a trend? If not, why?

More on this topic (What's this?)
Measuring the Performance of the Ivy Portfolio
Read more on Dividend Investing, How To Invest at Wikinvest