Archive for December, 2011

Merry Christmas To All Of You

By: IS | Date posted: 12.24.2011 (5:00 am)

Hi everyone, today, the post will be short and quick, I would like to wish you all a Merry Xmas and Happy Holidays. May you be able to spend quality time with all your loved ones. I thank you all for making this blog what it is and hopefully it will continue to grow over time.

Merry Christmas to all of you,

Sincerely,

IS

You’d Be Crazy To Not Own Apple (AAPL)

By: IS | Date posted: 12.23.2011 (5:00 am)

I know, it’s the least original idea to be bullish on Apple. Everyone is. The average analyst rating according to Bloomberg is 4.7 (out of 5). Only Google (GOOG) and Baidu (BIDU) score better and barely so. It just feels like I’m every day, thousands write about owning Apple. You’d think I’d want to stay away from the crowd right? How often does following everyone else turn out to be right? Very rarely, I’ll tell you that. Just look at gold these days. Seems like a few months ago, buying gold was the new “risk free” way to make money. These days, everyone is running for the exits…

Hear Me Out

I’m glad to see that you’ve kept on reading. I’m not trying to just be a “me too” guy over here. But Apple is dirt cheap and I think it’s crazy that the stock has not increased more. When I compare it to the other stocks that I follow, it comes out as one of the safest and undervalued investments. Rarely do those 2 words come together. Let’s look at a few numbers to start off. In the last 4 quarters, Apple has reported earnings per share of $27.67 and is trading at $400 or so… that is a trailing P/E of 14,5 or so. Very good right? Estimates are for the current P/E to be 13.81 and next year’s P/E to be just under 10, at 9.83.

Let’s take a look at all of the cheapest companies in terms of forward P/E (excluding Chinese companies which are a bit more complex) from the stocks that I follow:

StockPE RatioPE Next YearSales Growth
Research In Motion Ltd (RIMM)2.924.2433.13
Microsoft Corp (MSFT)9.468.3311.94
Apple Inc (AAPL)13.819.8365.96
QuinStreet Inc (QNST)19.279.920.36
ValueClick Inc (VCLK)13.5510.081.91
Adobe Systems Inc (ADBE)16.5710.2810.95
Expedia Inc (EXPE)16.0312.8113.29
eBay Inc (EBAY)19.9812.884.91
Dice Holdings Inc (DHX)18.5713.0717.28
Monster Worldwide Inc (MWW)12.9713.750.99

Tell me, is there any stock on this chart that even compares to Apple? Some might outperform without a doubt. But I would put all my chips on Apple if I had to choose. Just take a look at Apple’s revenues growth in recent quarters:

Is it recession proof? It’s not very far. Some might say that growth will slow down and they might turn out right (eventually they will) but even 10-20% growth would be a bargain at this price.

The Upside

The biggest thing about buying Apple is that not only is the downside very limited, but there is also significant upside. The mobile market continues to explode and I don’t think anyone would argue that the iPhone is losing momentum. It does face very stiff competition but things are still going strong for the Apple. Add to that the iPad which continues to see little to no competition in the tablet market.

2012 will see the launch of a new generation of iPad’s, perhaps a smaller version and will likely see the launch of the iPhone 5, all of which will certainly turn out to be huge winners. As if that wasn’t enough, Apple seems to be almost ready to officially launch Apple TV. Steve Jobs hinted in his last days that he had finally figured out tv and most analysts expect Apple to launch the product in 2013. Will it be a hit to the level of the ipad/ipod/iPhone? Perhaps but I don’t even think it needs to be THAT successful.

Steve Jobs Factor

Honestly, the only knock that I can see regarding Apple is the uncertainty created by the departure of Steve Jobs. That could certainly create issues but so far things do seem to be on pace and I think that if that is the knock against Apple, it is way overblown.

Are You Bullish On Apple?

I would love to hear from anyone that thinks I’m way off here. What would I be missing? If Apple is overvalued, what would you rather buy? Especially in the technology sector?  In case you have missed that, if nothing crazy happens between now and the year end, Apple will be one of the first stocks that I will end up going long on when stocks picks resume in a few days.

Disclosure: No position on Apple

An Important Component Of International Dividend Investing: Withholding Taxes

By: IS | Date posted: 12.22.2011 (5:00 am)

Last week, we took a look at some of the better dividend payers from all around the world. Many pay considerable dividends and offer good diversification which certainly makes them attractive picks. A few visitors were quick to point out that withholding taxes can have a significant impact on those dividends.

What are withholding taxes? 

When a foreign company decides to pay back its investors through dividends, there is often a part of that amount that is taken by the government where that tax is being paid. For example, foreign investors that decide to a buy a French stock will receive a dividend like any others but the French government (and almost every other government in the world) takes part of that income. Why? There are many reasons but it’s a form of tax on money leaving the country. These are not necessarily easy to track but they are generally between 0% and 30% depending on the country.

An Example

Suppose that an investor receives a dividend of $100 from that French stock.  The investor will end up only receiving $75 as the French government will take a 25% cut. That is one of the most expensive countries to buy stocks in and is certainly worth considering when looking at those attractive dividend yields.

It’s Not All Bad Though

It’s important to remember that you end up paying taxes on US dividends as well. The main difference is the rate (lower in this case but that’s not always the case) so you are simply paying this amount of taxes upfront rather than when filing your taxes.  Another key point is that in almost all cases, there will not be “double taxation”. That means that the dividend that you receive will not be taxed by the US government since you already paid your share to the French government.

Each Country Is Different

It’s important to look carefully at the rules for each country. Some have higher rates, others are lower, for some you don’t get hit by withholding taxes in your non-taxable accounts, etc. I don’t think that these things make a huge difference in most cases and it still makes a lot of sense to add international dividend stocks to almost any portfolio.

Have You Had Any Experience With Withholding Taxes?

Are Markets Too Volatile? 7 Ways To Protect Your Portfolio

By: IS | Date posted: 12.21.2011 (5:00 am)

One of the questions that I get the most often is how to protect a portfolio. I think that many investors are scared these days. Why? Markets have been more volatile in recent months and it’s scary for everyone involved. Especially those that have less years to make up any potential losses. There are many different reasons why markets have reacted so violently. The first one would be the whole credit crisis that makes it unclear what Europe (and indirectly the world) will look like a few years from now.  That, the uncertainty around banks, real estate prices and more have greatly diminished investor’s confidence.

All of those would be enough to make markets volatile but when you add electronic trading, high frequency traders and hedge funds, it seems to add to the violence of moves. The fact that big movements in the markets then setup new trades from all of these investors seems to make movements even more violent. Are markets too volatile? I personally don’t think so. If markets go up and down 2-3% every day but the end result is not significant, it should not make a big difference to most of us. In the end, most of us are trading with a long term perspective right?

How To Protect Your Portfolio?

One of the most common questions that I get when markets are so volatile is how to protect such a portfolio from big movements. There are no easy or clear answers but here are the main strategies that can be tried. I think it’s important to start off by doing these 2 things:

-Do not worry about short term movements (markets crashing for 1 day and rebounding the next one is not a cause for worry)
-Do not panic (trades and moves made when someone is anxious, upset or scared are almost never good ones)

Here are the main things that you can add into your portfolio. Any movements should be done gradually over time to reduce the volatility of your portfolio. It is almost never a good idea to start selling right away when markets decline. Gradual moves though can improve the performance of your portfolio over time.

7 Ways To Protect Your Portfolio

-Only Invest What You Can Afford To: There is no issue in holding some cash in your portfolio. I personally do not invest anything that I cannot afford to suffer significant (15-20%) losses on.. if you have trouble sleeping because you worry too much, you probably should hold less stocks and more cash.

-Improve your asset allocation: You should not have all of your eggs in equities or in bonds. Ideally, you have a mix between the two. It seems simple but that is probably the most significant

-Do Not Use Leveraged/Inverse Products: Many products are sold as a way to protect your portfolio. Such products are generally build with very short term goals in mind and it’s not what you should be using for longer term strategies.

-Improve Your Diversification: I love technology stocks but holding Google, Apple and Microsoft will provide very little protection in market downturns. It’s important to try to hold companies in different sectors that will help you perform better over time. This also means having more international stocks.

-Hold Alternative Assets: Buying inflation protected bonds, gold or other commodities can help diversify your portfolio. It’s not the first step I would take but as your portfolio becomes bigger, such strategies can certainly make a big difference.

-Pay Attention To Fiscal Impacts: One of the biggest mistakes that investors do when they panic is selling their biggest assets. That may or may not be the best decision. But you should always look at the taxes that will need to be paid. You might have lost $10,000 on a stock and want to sell but if you had made significant profits in previous years, you will be stuck paying capital gains taxes on those.

-Focus On The Right Metrics: I discussed how dividend investors that are using a dividend portfolio to build income should focus on the income that the portfolio generates rather than every day’s profit and losses and that can be true of any portfolio. Keep in mind that market losses means you are able to buy more of those assets which is a good thing. It might not feel that way but if you take the right perspective, you will not feel as much panic.

These 2012 Stock Picks Predictions Are Driving Me Crazy

By: IS | Date posted: 12.20.2011 (5:00 am)

I don’t know if it’s just me… But you know those people that are so desperate for attention that they will do absolutely anything to get it? You know some of those right? I might be crazy but I find those that are already making 2012 stock pick predictions are crazy. Why? Because 2012 is still a couple of weeks away. Tons of things can change between now and then. No I do not only mean a war, big deals in Europe or even huge events of that nature.

But how could someone say that a stock like Microsoft (MSFT) or any other for that matter will do well in 2012. Is it because the stock is very undervalued? Let’s imagine an analyst or blog thinks Microsoft is 20% undervalued or some other crazy number…. Then, yes you could expect that stock to do well in the next few months.

What if Microsoft (MSFT) is upgraded by a few brokers or changes its expectations? Or if a few big investors decide to buy the stock. What happens if Microsoft (MSFT) outperforms the market by 15% in the next few weeks? Then, suddenly, the person that expected Microsoft to be a great buy for 2012 would no longer have it as such.

So are those really the “Best Stocks To Own In 2012″? No… They are “The Best Stocks To Own In 2012 Assuming No Changes”. That is not the same thing at all.

Am I being too picky? Am I completely off here? Believe me, I have nothing against 2012 picks, and I will be making some in a few different ways. But I don’t think you’d ever catch me doing such a prediction 2-3 weeks in advance… Markets have never been so volatile so trying to anticipate what things will look like next month seems like a crazy thing to do.

My 2012 Tech Stock Picks… Mostly More Of The Same, Hopefully

By: IS | Date posted: 12.19.2011 (5:00 am)

After a successful year of trading in 2009, last year was a home run in almost every possible way. I do truly believe that the main changes I made last year ended up making a positive difference, especially my decision to stop opening trades later in the year. I know that it was not the most popular decision since those stock picks are among the most read posts but in the end, getting higher returns is the objective.

Last year, I got many questions regarding the stock picks or other technology stocks that I follow. I answered many of them by email, some were comments on the blog, but there was no ideal place really. I ended up creating a new mailing list, dedicated to tech stocks and the trades that I do. If you would like to get more information about the picks, other stocks that I like, or don’t, I highly encourage you to join, it’s free. I will also try to answer some of the questions that I get there since I’m not going to be writing 5 different posts about one trade. The mailing list is sent once every 1 or 2 weeks.

To join the list, simply fill out your name and email here:

Biggest Change For 2012

In the past, I’ve held at most 5 live trades on the stocks that I follow. This year, I will increase that number to 7. Why? There are a few different reasons. First off, it will help me trade more often since chances are greater that 1 of those 7 trades reaches its stop gain or stop loss. Also, it gives me less concentration on a few different names. Each person might have a different view on this but I personally prefer doing a few more picks with less money involved. That means less gains when a trade goes exceptionally well but also less losses when they don’t.

Why Not Add Even More Live Trades?

It’s always a matter of opportunities isn’t it? I track a universe of stocks and try finding opportunities in there. It’s not always easy to find good ones, even with 5. But I do believe that I will be more active on many of the recently turned public stocks such as Groupon (GRPN), Pandora (P), LinkedIn (LNKD) and even Zynga (ZNGA) as well future ones such as Facebook.  That will certainly provide more trading opportunities which is what I’m counting on to be honest. It’s a fairly big change so there is always that possibility that at some points in the year, I will not see good opportunities and prefer not trading for a few days/weeks but I somehow think I’ll find some good ones.

Better At Tracking

I’ve been reliable about posting trades on this blog but not as much in updating the live positions on the right sidebar and the results in the stock picks page. I will make an effort to make it easier for you to track my picks and performance.

What’s The Plan Now?

The plan is to continue to monitor the markets for the next 2 weeks, start preparing myself and then I will be opening a couple of trades in the first week of January. If you have any questions about the tech trades, comments or simply an opinion, feel free to contact me, I’d love to hear from you.