Archive for December, 2011

Happy New Year!!!

By: IS | Date posted: 12.31.2011 (5:00 am)

For most of you, today marks the start of a New Year. With that usually comes wishes and resolutions. I’ll start off by wishing you all to live your dreams, have quality time with your family and friends, and being healthy.

As for resolutions, I guess we each have some and I’m personally one who believes a lot in these. So far, I’ve usually been able to make most of them work to a good degree which probably helps me come back with more. In terms of investing, I’ve discussed some of my objectives and I will also obviously be putting efforts to save even more in 2012 than what I did last year. I think that while getting good returns is clearly more fun and exciting, the best way to add to our portfolios is just adding a bit more every month than we’ve done in the past.

I’m excited for 2012 to start and I hope you are too, Best Wishes And Thanks To All Of You Who Read, Write Comments and/or emails, I truly appreciate it and feel blessed to have these relationships with you,

Remember, life is short, live every day as if it were your last one,

Best wishes,

IS

I’ve Got Butterflies In My Stomach

By: IS | Date posted: 12.30.2011 (5:00 am)

Like everyone else reading this blog (or most of you at least), I am very much looking forward to starting 2012, especially to start my 2012 technology stock picks again. Don’t get me wrong, I love doing these picks, and I’ve certainly missed doing new picks in the past 3 months.. That being said, I’m nervous about doing the next ones. Why?

Putting It All On The Line Again

Many say that traders are only as good as their most recent returns. I don’t entirely agree but I do understand the idea behind it. Just think about it this way. The last time I opened a new trade, I knew that the difference between an amazing trade and a bad trade would likely be finishing 2011 with a return of over or under +50%. I think you’d all agree that while the return of 75% or so is incredible, being a bit lower would still have had a huge impact. I can’t imagine anyone thinking much less of me simply because the 2011 would have been “only” 50%.

Back To Square One

That being said, in a few days, I’ll be right back on the start with a 0% return in 2012. That means a few bad trades to start off the year would have a huge impact on the return obviously. Things might start off well as they have in both 2010 and 2011 but they could always turn out bad as well. Let’s face it, even with these great returns, I’ve made almost as many bad trades as good ones. The chances of starting with 2-3 losing ones is not that small.

What Happens If I Start Off The Bad Track

The big question of course is how it might (or not) affect me if I made 3-4 bad trades to start off the year. How much would I question myself and would it affect how I would do my trades? I would like to think that 3-4 trades would not be enough to shake my confidence but that is probably underestimating the emotional aspect of trading. That is also why no matter how things go, I will probably discuss the psychology of trading a lot more in 2012. Hopefully I won’t become a case study of how things can go wrong:)

Not Much I Can Do At This Point

I will likely open 2 or 3 new trades next week and at least one more the following week. That should help “diversify” my risk. If you are interested in these long and short tech stock picks, please be sure to join our free newsletter about technology long and short trading here:

That being said, I hope you will have a wonderful weekend, ,

IS

Looking To Oil For A 2012 Dividend Play… (RDS/B, XOM, COP)

By: IS | Date posted: 12.29.2011 (5:00 am)

In the past, we have looked at many different sectors for dividend stocks and one of the more promising ones has been companies in the oil & gas sector. In fact, one of the few criticisms that I received for the Ultimate Sustainable Dividend Portfolio has been being perhaps a bit overweight in oil/energy stocks. That is certainly something that I will be looking at as is the idea of having more international exposure in that portfolio. For that purpose, today I will be looking at two of the stocks that did make the cut, Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) and Conocco Philipps (COP) in order to see if Royal Dutch Shell might be a better pick than those two. To be fair, you could argue that all 3 companies have a fairly significant international component but I do think that RDS/B might be a good addition here. To judge them, I will use sustainable factors but also the top 20 things that I look at when judging dividend stocks.

Dividend Metrics

TickerNameCurrent Dividend Yield5 year Dividend Growth1 year Dividend Growth
RDS/BRoyal Dutch Shell PLC4.476.540
XOMExxon Mobil Corp2.237.646.32
COPConocoPhillips3.6712.8922.79

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) 

Conocco Philipps (COP)

Royal Dutch Shell(RDS/B)

I think that you could maybe argue that Conocco Phillips (COP) might have a better profile give the growth in recent years but since Royal Dutch Shell pays almost 1% more already, I would still likely side with RDS/B, with the only worrying point being that dividends have not increased in nearly 2 years. That is certainly cause for concern.

Company Metrics

TickerNameSales Growth (1 year)Sales Growth (5 year)Earnings growthP/E ratioMargins growthPayout ratioReturn on EquityDebt to Capital Ratio
RDS/BRoyal Dutch Shell PLC32.313.3417.437.46-1.4350.6614.15N/A
XOMExxon Mobil Corp23.969.0118.5810.14-3.228.8223.670.04
COPConocoPhillips29.2112.5516.088.91-7.427.9517.40.24

In terms of sales, Royal Dutch Shell has been growing its numbers very quickly while earnings growth is strong but comparable to its two US based competitors. The bigger worry though is that the payout ratio for RDS/B is much higher (almost double COP and XOM) which will certainly leave less place for improvement.

As well, Royal Dutch seems to have a bit higher debt than XOM for example.

Stock Metrics

TickerNamePriceTrading Volume
RDS/BRoyal Dutch Shell PLC75.2916877.5
XOMExxon Mobil Corp84.1819863056
COPConocoPhillips71.828191055.5

Industry Metrics

I don’t think there is any doubt that the outlook for oil prices is very uncertain. It is very much tied to the world economy and there are still many questions about China, Europe and even the US economy. How oil will react looks more like a guess in the short term. I do however think that the longer term outlook remains very strong. The demand continues to climb much more quickly than producers can improve capacity (when even possible). These companies are profitable, have little to no debt and while there is competition, the big players are the same year after year and I don’t think anyone expects one of them to outperform the others significantly.

Fit Within Your Portfolio and Sustainability

I would probably argue that the Ultimate Sustainable Dividend Portfolio was perhaps a bit too weighted into oil stocks and will probably adjust that over time. That and the lack of international exposure are probably the two biggest flws as of right now. That being said, I still think the portfolio is exceptional and will perform very very well over time. It’s also very important in my opinion to include some oil/energy stocks in your dividend portfolio. These companies generally have very stable revenues, and are able to pay consistent and solid dividends. It’s also important to note how sustainable and long term these companies are. Oil might eventually go away but probably not in our lifetimes and in fact, it is likely to become much more valauble before that happens so I personally do not worry very much about the prospects for these companies. If I had to pick, I think I might still pick the two same ones although you could easily argue that Royal Dutch Shell would make a great pick, especially if it resumes dividend increases.

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Oil at Wikinvest

Do You Trust Your Government?

By: IS | Date posted: 12.28.2011 (6:00 am)

A few weeks ago, I wrote a post about how to invest when our country is going bankrupt. Still to this day, I get comments, reactions and ‘tweets” almost every day. It does seem like many are worried about these types of scenarios. One of the things that concerns me the most is that I don’t trust the government would ever tell us if things did get serious… Or they would, but only when it would be too late. Right now, tens of European leaders continue to work on finding solutions for countries like Greece, Ireland but also the big ones like Italy and Spain. We know that Italy is paying almost 7% of any newly issued debt and that such a rate is unsustainable. But do you feel like the Italian government would ever tell its citizens if things got really bad?

History Says It Wouldn’t

Look at recent economic or financial issues such as Argentina and Russia and you’ll see that those that were taken by surprise the most were the citizens of those countries. Obviously, it’s easy to understand why. The whole system, from banks to currency and the government is built on one fundamental; trust and confidence in the system. For example, if banks only hold a few % of the deposits that you and I made (they ledn out the rest), it does not take that many people withdrawing all of their money to create major issues. The whole system is built that way.

Is The Truth Hidden?

Remember all of the huge discussions and debates that occurred when the government did a $700B bailout package? Many were against it but in the end, it was judged that it was better to go ahead. What is less clear now that this has been made public is why the Fed made nearly 10 times that amount, $6.8T, available to financial instutions. Why? Many believed that the whole system was on the verge of a collapse and that huge banks could start going down left and right. I don’t think anyone would ever say that letting that happen would have been the right thing to do. It might have made things even worse to let everyone in on the real story of how bad things truly were.

But I Still Wonder…

What other things do we not know right now? How close is Europe from collapsing and what kind of consequences would such a failure have? I don’t know about you but while I’m not going to start a panic movement, and accumulating food and water in my home, I do keep this in mind when deciding what to do with my money.

How about you? Do you trust your government? Do you consider such things when deciding what to do with your money?

More on this topic (What's this?)
Prosecuting Wall Street
Read more on Trust at Wikinvest

Adding A New Stock To My Radar: Tripadvisor (TRIP)

By: IS | Date posted: 12.27.2011 (5:00 am)

I guess I didn’t do my homework. Or something like that. I’ve been discussing the Zynga (ZNGA) and Facebook IPO’s over and over but one of the most interesting web companies turned public and I didn’t even say a word about it (I did mention it on Twitter but it was late). Good thing for me is that I’m not the only one. As much I’d love to blame the Christmas Holidays for my miss, the truth is that this one went under everyone’s radar.

Why TripAdvisor (TRIP) Was Barely Mentionned

The biggest reason in my opinion is that this company did not go the more traditional route of being private and then going for the IPO. Instead, it was bought a few years ago by Expedia (EXPE) which decided to spin it off earlier this month. I’m not sure why Expedia did not put more of an effort to make this more public.

I’m Not Complaining Though

Believe me, I’m more than happy to see Tripadvisor go unnoticed. Why? It certainly looks like the company’s valuation is lower than it probably would have been. Right now, TRIP is trading at a valuation of $3.5B or so. That is a bit over half of Zynga’s (ZNGA) valuation with revenues also close to being half of its competitor. You might think that I’m crazy to compare the two. Obviously, I beg to differ.

Zynga And Tripadvisor Are Both Plays On Social

While Zynga has an incredible team of designers and programmers, the thing that sets it apart from competitors such as Electronic Arts and Blizzard is the fact that it was able to acquire a dominant position in social, especially on Facebook. As the web moves to a more “social” environment, that is proving to be key. In a similar way, Tripadvisor is also a leader in its sphere from a social perspective.

If you don’t know Tripadviser, it is the leader in travel guides. It offers the possibility for visitors to view hotels, restaurants, things to do, find out how others liked their time, what their Facebook friends did and who has visited a given place. It’s by far the paradise for those booking travel from the web (increasingly everyone!). The best part is that all of the content is built by users while Tripadviser staff and engineers can focus on the structure, features such as the Facebook integration, etc.

How TRIP Makes Money

Basically, every time a user decides to book a hotel or restaurant, Tripadviso tries to make an amount of money off of that reservation. Because of that, the company has been profitable for almost 10 years now. I encourage you to view the video below if you’d like more information about the company.

The Concerns Regarding TRIP

There are certainly downsides in Tripadvisor’s business, like most new digital companies (or all of them for that matter). The two main ones in my opinion are:

-Competition: There is no doubt that many powerful players including Google are going after the local market. I still think that Tripadviser’s “travel perspective” remains unique and basically unchallenged. Also, it will be a significant challenge for players like Google to build such a site. Personally, I think that the competition factor is less important than for players like Zynga.

-Reliance On Community: There is certainly the potential for any social player to screw up big time. Companies like MySpace managed to screw up big time and allienate their users to the point where they all left. I think this remains a risk, especially as a public listed company with shorter term horizons. So far, the company seems to be able to manage things in the right way and continues to get increased respect from the travellers community. It does remain a risk, but not a significant one in my opinion.

High Margins

The incredible feat for companies that let users generate the content such as Facebook, LinkedIn (LNKD) and Tripadvisor is that they can turn very significant margins. Why? Their costs are very limited. Over time, I think that will prove to be a critical factor and I personally give a lot more credit to revenues from a company like TRIP than others like ZNGA and Pandora which have to spend big to acquire and produce content.

What Will You Be Working To Improve Your Investing In 2012?

By: IS | Date posted: 12.26.2011 (5:00 am)

We are exactly in the middle of those days where so many of us take New Year resolutions, things that we will start doing, be more consistent at and also those things we want to avoid going into the New Year. Last week, I discussed the few changes that I will make related to my long and short technology stock picks. There are many other financial and investing goals that I will attempt to do, mostly trying to be smarter with my money and my spending which will hopefully translate into more savings.

In terms of financial decisions, finding some money to be saved in insurance and other recurring expenses will probably be the best way to get it done. If I can find a $100 per month for example and increase my automatic savings by that amount, it will end up making a very significant difference.

From an investment perspective, I am hoping to invest significant amounts into:

-The best investment I have made in my life
-Some longer term speculative picks… Zynga (ZNGA) is one possibility, LinkedIn (LNKD) at the right price, another option that I will discuss later this week and obviously some Facebook stock if it comes out anywhere close to a decent valuation.

From a blogging perspective, I hope the quality of posts on this blog will continue to increase so that it can hopefully keep up the growth. These days, the blog has between 500 and 1000 readers on almost every day, and I’m hoping that all days will be over 1000 by this time next year. Again, I appreciate all of your feedback in helping me making this blog more interesting and relevant.

-And more than anything else, more time with my family – I think we all realize more and more over the years how valuable our close friends and family truly are and I am going to be focusing on the 20/80 principle more than ever before. Why? Because that is what will help me get more results in every aspect while also managing to get more free time to spend with my loved ones.

I would love to hear about your 2012 resolutions and objectives, thanks for being part of this growing community.