Archive for April, 2011

Cloud computing getting more complex by the day (AMZN, GOOG, AAPL)

By: IS | Date posted: 04.29.2011 (5:00 am)

Very recently, I wrote a post about the brilliance of Amazon’s (AMZN) latest move in the clouds as it launched a solution that fits the needs of people like you and I, namely just storing documents, music and photos among other things. While the big cash remains with business cloud clients, attracting the general population could help build very solid cash flows and despite the business being low margin, the flows are so consistent that it remains a very solid business.

Risky business?

The risk of course is significant in the cloud businesses. Last week, you might have noticed several big websites and web based services experienced downtime. What caused it? Server problems on Amazon’s AWS (Amazon Web Services) that started early Thursday morning and remained unresolved for several hours with more problems occurring in the next few days.Needless to say that the impact for companies that experienced downtime is significant both financially and from a PR standpoint. As our economy moves to the digital world, the reliance on these systems becomes increasingly important and a day like Thursday will certainly be brought up when Amazon sales guys meet with potential clients. Can a hospital store its data in the clouds and risk security breaches or offline time? It is debatable. In cases likes these, both the affected companies take a serious hit. It’s funny how Amazon goes off about the huge promise and importance of AWS services in its earnings calls but on a day like today, we are quickly pointed to the fact that it only represents 2% of Amazon’s revenues and should not be a source of concern. Funny how that works.

Moving to the clouds will not stop

As many questions as there is regarding cloud computing, the move will continue. Despite all of the risks involved, I think it remains a cheaper, better and even often more secure method of running things. That is why companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are putting so many resources into their cloud strategy and why I expect more competition to jump in. I think it will be interesting to see what kind of products come out of these companies and how much importance these units will gain within companies like Google and Apple. Some have been writing about companies stopping their move to the clouds but I don’t see it happening. The fact is that no matter where your network is, there are risks involved and being in the clouds or not does not change that.

How big of a business will this become?

I think it will be huge. Not only will most of the international companies be using these services but they will use it more and more and become dependent on it. The big thing is that despite what some would think, the barriers to entry for cloud computing are significant. Google, Apple, Facebook and others are building huge data warehouses, have expensive and rare expertise and it will be difficult for companies to join in. What does this mean? I think it means less competition and as commercial clients become addicted to the clouds, prices will go up and the activity will become more profitable.

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Amazon.com, Google, Apple at Wikinvest

It’s not an easy road….analogy between Iron Man competition and Financial Independence

By: IS | Date posted: 04.28.2011 (5:00 am)

Have you ever wondered by so few individuals are able to one day live off of a passive income portfolio? Many are able to get by either counting on a government or other pension,  by diminishing their expenses, by working longer than expected, etc. But how many people do you know who were able to reach financial independence and live off of their passive income (dividend and other) without touching their capital? Very few I would guess.

Iron Man is a competition that includes a marathon, the equivalent of a marathon swimming and also on a bike. It’s something that is often done in 12 hours and sometimes a few more hours…. it’s not easy at all, but the participants usually are all capable of making it through.

It’s not because they can’t do it

Every Iron Man competitor generally has the skills and body to finish the race. The same could be said about financial independence. I strongly believe that in 90% of cases, that goal is not only reachable but also very reasonable to expect. It’s not about how much you are paid per hour, what school you went to or even the skills that you have. I truly believe that is goal is possible for almost every individual.

Possible? Absolutely. Easy? Not even close

While Iron Man participants are able to finish the race, they usually will feel negative about the outcome for a good portion of the race. I can guarantee that no matter how good your plan is, you will often feel discouraged and disappointed by the performance and improvement of your portfolio.

It’s not about taking shortcuts

Iron Man is a competition that values endurance and consistence, I think the same is true for building a solid passive income portfolio. It will always be tempting to take shortcuts to improve the size and the speed of your accumulation. But as I wrote last week, I think the key to growing your portfolio has very little to do with being aggressive/taking shortcuts. It’s about being consistent with your investments, your contributions and everything else over long periods of time.

You will have setbacks

In Iron Man as in many other sports, athletes encounter setbacks such as injuries that can severely challenge their will, their determination, etc. I think it’s important to understand that setbacks will also happen when you are investing. Over a couple of decades of investing, you will experience market crashes, changes in the markets, changes in your personal circumstances, etc. All of these will be tests to see if you can keep your focus and stay on task.

In the end, success depends on you

It’s easy to blame family, friends and work for lacking time to train, injuries, and other factors that might have slowed down Iron Man athletes. But in training as in everything else, the major factor is not others, events or circumstances. It’s all about you. Are you dedicated enough to invest in a smart, dedicated and consistent manner and keep it up for 20 years?

It seems like a never ending road

It’s easy to put off a run, a swim, a good night of sleep or a good meal when the race is 8 months away isn’t it? I would argue that it’s also the case for investing. Why start investing when you are 40 years away from retirement? Why be focused on dividend stocks when you can try a few mining stocks and revert if it doesn’t work? Etc, etc. The truth is that you should start planning and executing your dividend portfolio right now. Not 10 years from now, not 10 months from now and not even 10 days from now. It’s just too easy to put it off a little bit longer….

You can do it

It seems like such a “cliche” but it’s true. Every one of us can get to the point where our passive income can account for all of our expenses. As I’ve said a few times in the past, I always set aside a specific amount invested in a steady and consistent portfolio and take a portion of what’s left to be more aggressive with my long & short tech stock picks. Are they paying off? You bet. Things are going great. But I am staying on course with the rest of my portfolio as I slowly head towards my finish line; financial independence.

Adding a new tech stock to our radar: Tencent Holdings Limited (TCEHY)

By: IS | Date posted: 04.27.2011 (5:00 am)

As I am sure that you had figured out, the reason why I discussed pink sheet stocks yesterday was because for the first time, I am adding one of those stocks to the list of stocks that we follow. Having a pink sheet stock was not something that we were aiming for and it certainly had not been planned but after hearing over and over about Tencent Holdings, we decided to look into it despite the fact that it is not traded on US exchanges. The good news is that it can be traded as a pink sheet thus avoid the fees and complications of trading Tencent in its home market; the Hong Kong stock exchange.

What is Tencent Holdings?

It is somewhat ironic for me of all people to become interested in Tencent Holdings because it follows a model similar to the one that Yahoo (YHOO), IAC Interactice (IACI) and other content companies that I have been very critical of follow. But the model is not necessarily bad, it’s more in terms of implementation. I have been fairly bullish about Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) which is also a conglomerate. Of course, Tencent, like Yahoo and IACI is only involved in tech units and is thus less diversified than the company ran by Warren Buffet. I became more aware of Tencent when researching ways to invest in Facebook as Tencent is a shareholder in Digital Sky Technologies, one of the leading technology funds.

Why isn’t Tencent Holdings listed in the US?

I wish I had the answer and maybe someone here knows, please do leave us a comment if you do. I will assume that the costs involved are simply greater than the potential benefits at this time.

Is it all about China now?

It would certainly seem that way wouldn’t it? I did add Youku (YOKU) last week and did discuss going long Chinese internet stocks against US ones. But no, it’s not all about China of course. Being what will soon be the most important market in the world does however mean that owning big players there and trading them is critical to what we do in the technology field.

Here are some highlights:

-Revenues have been increasing at great pace from 2,8M RBM in 2006 to 7,15M in 2008 and 19,65M in 2010.
-Profits have increased at a similar pace from 1,063M in 2006 to 9,875M in 2010.
-Tencent Holdings does pay out a dividend of HKD 0.55 per share (as per 2010)

Overall thoughts

Being a pink sheet stock is certainly not a positive for Tencent and perhaps the only good thing about it is that it means many large investors cannot or will not refuse in Tencent despite it being a good value. I’m not sure that I would ever go short on a pink sheet stock (if it’s even possible) but I do think this could be a good long term buy and will certainly be tracking it in the near future.

Disclosure: No current position on Tencent (TCEHY)

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Tencent at Wikinvest

What is a pink sheet traded stock?

By: IS | Date posted: 04.26.2011 (5:00 am)

I am confident that while most of you have never traded a pink sheet stock, you have heard of them, know a few of the companies and have stumbled upon a few of the symbols over time. I will be discussing one of these stocks tomorrow and expected to get a few questions regarding the pink sheet stocks so I took the liberty of answering some of them before you even ask. Hopefully it helps and I’ll be more than happy to give a shot at any unanswered ones.

What is a pink sheet stock?

In the US markets, there exist a few stock exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq. Companies can become listed on these exchanges by doing a variety of things that include:

-Having a balance sheets and sales numbers that fit the exchanges requirements
-Paying annual fees to get listed
-Fulfilling a variety of listing requirements such as Sorbanes-Oxley

All of these require both time and resources and some companies choose to not be listed for a variety of reasons. Many choose to do so because the costs involved are too important to be worth it. But others simply choose not to or they get kicked off of the exchanges for different reasons that would include insufficient trading volume.

Are these pink sheet companies all tiny companies?

Not at all. To give one example, Nestle, the giant food company is not traded on US stock exchanges but it is traded in the pink sheet market.

Is there any volume or liquidity on these companies?

Like anything else, it really depends on each stock. For example, Nestle (NSRGY) often trades over 1 million shares per day giving shareholders all kinds of liquidity. So like everything else it depends on volume.

What are some concerns with trading pink sheet stocks?

I would say that a major one is that since accounting standards are not the same, you have to be careful about comparing numbers from these companies to other ones as standards could be significantly different. If the stock trades on other major markets it becomes less of a concern. Nestle for example is traded on Swiss markets.

Another concern is that many pink sheet stocks become unlisted because they are in financial trouble and are unable to satisfy the stock exchanges requirements. These stocks must then move to pink sheet markets.

Who regulates this market?

Because Pink Sheets stocks are considered to be over the counter (OTC), there are very few rules and laws that apply to these stocks. Because of that, price manipulation is a bigger problem.

More on this topic (What's this?)
Pink Sheets Dot Com
Read more on Pink Sheets at Wikinvest

New Trade: Long Priceline (PCLN) & Short Monster Worldwide (MWW)

By: IS | Date posted: 04.25.2011 (5:00 am)

After being able to close out our trade on Long WebMD (WBMD) & Short IAC Interactive (IACI) last week, it meant that I would be able to open a new trade which was obviously very good news. It was a surprise to see the most recent trade turn to out successful so quickly but given KNOT’s volatility, things can indeed go very quickly. Things continue to go very well for us so far this week, better than we could honestly expect or hope for as our average trade has returned 12.99% so far this year translating into an annualized returned over 100%. Our objectives are much more modest and since in both of the previous years we had our best results at the start of the year, we can only work on doing better this year.

Today, we are opening a new trade and while the names and sides are common, pairing them up together is now. I have consistently been bearish about Monster Worldwide (MWW) but would usually trade it against Dice Holdings (DHX), a similar name. The trade does not look as good this time around. In a similar way, I tend to go long Priceline (PCLN) against other internet travel companies but not this time around. Surprisingly, you will notice that these two companies trade at almost identical forward P/E ratios. Before going further, let me show you the main numbers I was looking at:

TickerNamePriceEPSPE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook Value
PCLNPriceline.com Inc543.951150.4121.9932.9931.934.636.9
MWWMonster Worldwide Inc17.73-0.27N/A22.56(26.28)0.993.449.32

Long Priceline (PCLN)

Analysts have been underestimating Priceline’s growth potential for years now and despite the chart that you can see, I still believe that Priceline has a lot more growth left in it. The company has been in some regards the performing dot com stock for years now and its sales growth of over 30% makes its P/E ratio look very cheap in my opinion. The company continues to face very solid competition in internet travel industry and while I do fear to some extent the traffic numbers reported by compete (at the bottom of this post), I do still consider that the company has a lot of growth left. Competitors such as Travelzoo are proving to be much better competition than expected but Priceline remains the top brand in travel and as long as it can keep up the premier service, I’m not worried. We did trade Priceline successfully earlier this year, hopefully things will go as well this time around.

Short Monster Worldwide (MWW)

Monster is one of those companies along with Blue Nile that always seems to be trading at a premium without much justification behind it. I did short it earlier against Dice Holdings in what is my preferable trade because both are in the same industry (online job postings) and while DHX usually maintains a higher growth rate, its P/E ratio has often been much smaller.. it made no sense and provided great trading opportunities. But not this time around. Still, Monster faces increasing competition and the upcoming IPO from LinkedIn will only make things more difficult. The company has been posting flat growth and I don’t see any logical reason behind a P/E ratio over 20.

Disclosure: No positions on Priceline (PCLN) or Monster Worldwide (MWW)

Financial Ramblings

By: IS | Date posted: 04.23.2011 (5:00 am)

It is tax season and we certainly found a very interesting website (for those based in the US) to find out where your tax dollars went, it’s very well done and other countries should have the same, try it at “Where did my tax dollars go?“. Very cool. I would also like to wish all of you a long weekend and Happy Easter!

-Top Canadian Dividend stocks – Anything good besides banks? @ TheDividendGuyBlog
-Are DRIP’s suitable for you? @ WhatIsDividend
-The tablet market is Apple’s market for at least 2 years as per Goldman Sachs @ All Things Digital
-Investing in the face of high inflation @ ObliviousInvestor
-Is it true? @ Macro Man
-Brian Hunter fined $30 million for nat gas price manipulation @ ZeroHedge
-Alberta’s Red Earth Slave Point Formation Oil Play @ Beating The Index
-MBA programs – which one to choose? @ Experiglot
-Yahoo points the finger at Microsoft for revenue shortfall @ TechCrunch
-Financial Planner vs Stock Broker – who’s who? @ TheFinancialBlogger
-Abbott Laboratories (ABT) dividend stock analysis @ DividendMonk
-Is it too late to start studying for the CFA? @ SmartFinancialAnalyst

And finally the trailer for HBO’s upcoming “Too big to fail”