Archive for December, 2010

If I were Apple CEO Steve Jobs for one year… (AAPL)

By: IS | Date posted: 12.24.2010 (5:00 am)

With the holidays around the corner, we decided to do a mini series about a few of the tech stocks that we follow all year long. We are the first ones to judge and critic how these companies are run but as they say, it’s always much easier to critic it then actually run a company. So we decided to go ahead and write a series about what we would do with these companies. Hoping you will enjoy the series:

Dec 20    If I were Google CEO Eric Schmidt for one year…
Dec 21    If I were Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz for one year…
Dec 22    If I were AOL CEO Tim Armstrong for one year…
Dec 23    If I were Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg for one year…
Dec 24    If I were Apple CEO Steve Jobs for one year…
Dec 27    If I were Ebay CEO John Donahoe for one year…
Dec 28    If I were Amazon CEO … for one year…

Management in the past few years

Taking over Apple would be a very big challenge. No CEO is seen as more instrumental to his company’s success than Steve Jobs is to Apple. Since his return to the company, Steve Jobs has led countless product launches that have helped Apple take over what seemed unthinkable just 5 years ago, the top technology company in the world in terms of market cap. Apple is dominant in all kinds of products from the Ipod to the Ipad but it’s future now seems tied to the Iphone as Apple battles both Research in Motion (RIMM) and Google (GOOG). As mobile devices gain importance, being the dominant player has allowed Apple to be a major force to be reckoned with.

General Vision

-Make Apple products the leading edge in terms of design, technology and overall experience.

Initiatives/Priorities I would get started on

-Offer the Iphone & Ipad on other carriers : As good as Steve Jobs has been about delivering a solid product, this is a MAJOR flaw that needs to be fixed quickly. I would be curious to know what kind of market share Android would have had the Iphone been available on other carriers from the start. Google might need to give up some of its control but right now, having it only on AT&T, a carrier that is very unpopular seems like a big mistake. From my first day in, getting it on Verizon and at least one or two others would be my top priority. This would give me access to more users and also hurt Android powered handsets.

-Buy Netflix: Some rumors were discussed a few weeks ago and I even wrote about it.  Buying Netflix is certainly a bit of a gamble because of its high valuation but it makes sense in so many ways for Apple. First off, one of the battles that Apple has been waging for its Ipod/Ipad/Iphone line in Itunes has been buying content. Netflix has an incredible number of deals for content which could instantly help Apple. Another priority for Apple has been gaining access to the living room through Apple TV. What better way to do that than get access to the #1 movie/tv streaming and rental service? It makes sense in many ways.

-Live Satellite radio & tv: Sirius might not be for everyone but I’m convinced that adding it to the Iphone would be a major improvement for many users. Apple could get a cut of the profits and revenues generated by Apple users and Sirius would instantly get access to millions of new users. A win win for everyone involved in my opinion. I’m shocked this has not happened already. To be fair, users can get Sirius radio through an App but I think a deeper alliance between the two companies (such as pre-installing Sirius on all devices with a trial period) would make a lot more sense.

-Create a messaging system: This could be used by all Apple device users, would be a “chat system” that could also support sending files such as photos & videos but also include video chat and other features.

-Payment systems: Apple is big enough to become a “standard”. Many countries now have a lot of transactions go through their phones and Apple should lead such an initiative in the US.

-Flash Support: I understand that the reason why flash is not supported is because its a challenge to not crash devices and keep the user experience solid. But making enemies is not a good idea, take your ego out of the way. Also, apart from the carriers issue, lack of Flash support is the big reason why users are not buying an Iphone. There’s no sense in doing it. Instead, work with Adobe to make it more stable and let users know when Flash creates issues/crashes on their device.

Any thoughts or ideas?

I would love to hear your thoughts or ideas regarding all of these initiatives!

Disclosure: I am long Apple (AAPL)

If I were Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg for one year…

By: IS | Date posted: 12.23.2010 (5:00 am)

With the holidays around the corner, we decided to do a mini series about a few of the tech stocks that we follow all year long. We are the first ones to judge and critic how these companies are run but as they say, it’s always much easier to critic it then actually run a company. So we decided to go ahead and write a series about what we would do with these companies. Hoping you will enjoy the series:

Dec 20    If I were Google CEO Eric Schmidt for one year…
Dec 21    If I were Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz for one year…
Dec 22    If I were AOL CEO Tim Armstrong for one year…
Dec 23    If I were Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg for one year…
Dec 24    If I were Apple CEO Steve Jobs for one year…
Dec 27    If I were Ebay CEO John Donahoe for one year…
Dec 28    If I were Amazon CEO … for one year…

Management in the past few years

It’s no secret on this blog, I am a big fan of Facebook. Yes of the website.. But more so of the company, how it is being run, and even its current valuation. Some consider it outrageous to see a company with fairly small revenues now trading at a $50 billion valuation. I consider it a major bargain. I’ve said that Facebook is currently the best buying opportunity in the market and still believe it although it’s not easy to get actual exposure to the company since Facebook is not listed yet.
So yes, I consider Facebook to be very well run at the moment, mostly because of these reasons:

-Focused on user experience: While companies like MySpace made critical errors by focusing on revenues too early, Facebook’s attitude towards its product and its business has been nothing short of extraordinary as it tries to build the “new internet

-Mark Zuckerberg: He’s not perfect, far from it, but as I wrote about recently, he remains focused on taking his company to the next level rather than cashing out

-Talent: In a world where talent is a very rare resource, Facebook’s innovation and focus on improvement have been key in attracting talent

There is no doubt in my opinion that Facebook is one of the best run companies in the tech space which will make it a bigger challenge to assume the CEO position!

General Vision

-Make the web a more social and friendly place

Initiatives/Priorities I would get started on

-Twitter : Facebook’s only credible competition comes from Twitter which is the 2nd social player on the internet. Twitter is huge because it fills needs that Facebook is not currently filling. I think that by separating status updates (similar to Twitter functions) from everything else, the need and usefullness of Twitter would be greatly diminished. It would then become importantto offer mobile apps that have one basic function: “Status Update Screens”. Finally, give the possibility to add someone either as a “friend” or simply follow their status updates. The strategy could be tweeked over time but I think it would bring some of Twitter’s flow back to Facebook without hurting Facebook’s nature.

-Privacy Policy: One of the only problems with Facebook or issues that have complicated life for Facebook is privacy. I would make the policy very transparent about the non-sharing of private information. By default, users would only be sharing their photos and information with friends although they can change that. Also, I would segregate information so that users that use applications would only give out the information that they want to give out to those applications. It is critical for users to trust Facebook.

-Security: Facebook needs to do everything in its power to ensure the security of the users information. A breach similar to what Gawker is going through would be a major blow for the rest of the big plan. I would thus hire security experts and challengethese firms to get around the security setup giving out rewards if they can. Security needs to be the top priority. Users could even get authentication software if they use Facebook credits (see below).

-Facebook credits: Thanks to Facebook connect, users are getting increasingly comfortable with using one login around the web. That should be expanded. Users could make purchases to major websites by simply logging in and clicking buy. Entering the address and billing info would be a thing of the past as Facebook would be processing the transaction. That means minimal risk because only Facebook would have access to the credit card information. It would then send the money (after fees of course) to the merchant as well as shipping information. A 1 click buy on almost any website.

-Display advertising: Facebook has more eyeballs than anyone else on the internet and I think it’s quickly becoming the best place for brands to advertise themselves. There are many different ways to do it but I think there are ways to do it that will please both users and advertisers such as special offers. I would work closely with advertising agencies to find the best ways to get these big companies to start using Facebook as one of their main advertising mediums.

-Create Locak Yellow Pages (with charged listings and comments): Facebook knows where you live. So the next time you are looking for a dentist, wouldn’t it be convenient to simply take a look at the listings and see which one your friends are using? Listing would be free and users could give out comments, ratings or anything else. The money would come from special promotions that merchants could run or when they pay money to get additional visibility.

-Social Search  (friends, etc): Facebook is already making inroads with search thanks to its “Like” button. I think the company could expand greatly the concept in order to help us share content that we like more easily. Storing information and displaying it in an optimized way would make searching the web a much easier experience.

-Delay IPO: As much as investors like myself are excited about a future IPO, I would delay it as much as possible. I had written about the subject and basically I believe that Facebook as a private company is keeping its eyes on the long term which is critical.

Any thoughts or ideas?

I would love to hear your thoughts or ideas regarding all of these initiatives!

Quick news – December 22 2010

By: IS | Date posted: 12.23.2010 (4:08 am)

Tech news: (concern the stocks we follow)

Priceline (PCLN) was raised to Buy by ThinkEquity with a $530 price target

Best return:    CTrip (CTRP) +3,05%


Worst return:   Blue Nile (NILE) -2,63%

If I were AOL CEO Tim Armstrong for one year… (AOL)

By: IS | Date posted: 12.22.2010 (5:00 am)

With the holidays around the corner, we decided to do a mini series about a few of the tech stocks that we follow all year long. We are the first ones to judge and critic how these companies are run but as they say, it’s always much easier to critic it then actually run a company. So we decided to go ahead and write a series about what we would do with these companies. Hoping you will enjoy the series:

Dec 20    If I were Google CEO Eric Schmidt for one year…
Dec 21    If I were Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz for one year…
Dec 23    If I were Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg for one year…
Dec 24    If I were Apple CEO Steve Jobs for one year…
Dec 27    If I were Ebay CEO John Donahoe for one year…
Dec 28    If I were Amazon CEO … for one year…

Management in the past few years

AOL used to be a dog in my opinion and even as recently as a few months ago, I would include AOL and Yahoo in the same sentence as IAC Interactive as the worst managed web companies out there. Tim Armstrong’s arrival as CEO has certainly started to change my mind on AOL’s future and it’s much clearer to me where AOL is now headed and the focus has certainly been one of the big reasons why I will probably be going long on AOL in the near future. Acquisitions like TechCrunch, one of the most valuable blogs, are reasons why I believe that AOL is headed in the right direction. It remains a challenging business and a fairly complex one but I do have faith in Tim Armstrong’s leadership.

AOL is a very decentralized company so judging it on the traffic at AOL.com would be very misleading. One of the most promising areas for AOL is Patch.com, its network of local websites which has been growing like crazy and could become the leading effort for AOL in the battle for local traffic. Just take a look at this stunning traffic chart:

General Vision

AOL should be the leader in hyper targeted and hyper local websites with a twofold focus: High quality content and a leader in online Advertising.

Initiatives/Priorities I would get started on in terms of content

-Keep Patch in high growth mode: Patch.com is growing amazingly quickly and I personally still have some questions about the cost structure, I think AOL is doing the right thing in keeping the roll out pace frantic. AOL needs to take over the market before others like Yahoo can react and figure out the revenues and costs later on.  The structure and strategy looks sound so far

-Start developing premium content on key properties: Some properties could be structured in a way to give users extra content for a monthly fee that could add to AOL’s recurring revenues.

-Add a Sports Network: AOL does have some sports properties such as FanHouse but I think it could eventually take much more of a leader role and compete with ESPN.com. It will be a long term project but I think AOL has everything required in order to make it work.

-Buy Yelp ($265M): Yelp information, sales force and user base could easily be integrated with Patch in order to consolidate itself as the top local network.

-Buy EveryDayHealth ($460M): It is one of the leading “health” blogs and seems to fit perfectly within AOL’s strategy

Buy Sugar Inc ($250M): AOL  continues to have a lot of cash to spend and I would concentrate on getting more high quality content in order to optimize the advertising efforts & technology. Sugar Inc is a leading network and would fit very well within AOL’s strategy.

Buy the Huffington Post or NY Times: These are both very difficult and expensive acquisitions but if it makes sense for one company to buy them, AOL is the one in my opinion. It would be able to leverage its technology and advertising sales force to optimize the return on both investments. The NY Times would be a very intriguing combination and would certainly result in a very much improved web strategy for the legendary newspaper.

Initiatives/Priorities I would get started on in terms of advertising

I think the key point for AOL would be to quickly get access to better advertising technology and a superior sales force in order to offer the best solutions for online advertisers. I think AOL is well positioned to compete with Google, Microsoft and Yahoo for the big names such as Coca-Cola and GM.

Acquiring Tremor Media, Valueclick and Quinstreet would give AOL an edge in order to best profit from its network of properties in an optimal way.

Any thoughts or ideas?

I would love to hear your thoughts or ideas regarding all of these initiatives!

Disclaimer: I am currently short AOL

Quick news – December 21 2010

By: IS | Date posted: 12.21.2010 (9:38 pm)

Tech news: (concern the stocks we follow)

Amazon (AMZN) is said to be on pace for 8 million Kindle sales in 2010
Apple (AAPL) announced it expects of sale of Apple TV’s to top 1 million this week
Amazon (AMZN) rated a new “Outperform” by Macquarie
Ebay (EBAY) rated a new “Neutral” by Macquarie
Google (GOOG) is said to be loking to buy one of the smaller Groupon clones after the failed takeover

Best return:  Adobe (ADBE) +6,01%


Worst return:  Research in Motion (RIMM) -0,41%

If I were Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz for one year… (YHOO)

By: IS | Date posted: 12.21.2010 (5:00 am)

With the holidays around the corner, we decided to do a mini series about a few of the tech stocks that we follow all year long. We are the first ones to judge and critic how these companies are run but as they say, it’s always much easier to critic it then actually run a company. So we decided to go ahead and write a series about what we would do with these companies. Hoping you will enjoy the series:

Dec 20    If I were Google CEO Eric Schmidt for one year…
Dec 21    If I were Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz for one year…
Dec 22    If I were AOL CEO Tim Armstrong for one year…
Dec 23    If I were Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg for one year…
Dec 24    If I were Apple CEO Steve Jobs for one year…
Dec 27    If I were Ebay CEO John Donahoe for one year…
Dec 28    If I were Amazon CEO … for one year…

Management in the past few years

Yahoo is probably at the very top of companies that I think are being round into the ground right now. Comparing any company to Yahoo is as offensive as anything I could say and there is no doubt that Yahoo has a lot to do in order to get back in order. Things have been run so badly for years that one year at the top of Yahoo would be quite a challenge. Just think about the fact that Microsoft could have paid about twice what the company is worth a few years ago  when the company had not yet fallen off the cliff. The problem at Yahoo is that it tries to be decent at everything instead of being great at a few things. There are a few properties that have been managed well and Flickr is certainly near the top of that list.

General Vision

-Become a relevant and innovative player on the web in the social, local and entertainment spheres.

Initiatives/Priorities I would get started on

-Get Rid of Carol Bartz: Carol Bartz has been a major disruption, has lost the confidence of her employees and senior management which have been leaving the company at a quick pace. I would start by getting rid of her and explaining the new Yahoo to all employees: “We will no longer be a jack of all trades but become the King of just a few”.

-Expand from Flickr: Yahoo is lucky enough to have a hot property that continues to shine despite everything else. It could be the starting point from which Yahoo gets a decent presence in the crucial social web. Moving slowly is critical to avoid alienating users. I think first on the list would be making it easier for users to share their Flickr content, to give users the ability to build a “profile page” similar to what Facebook has and make it easier for Yahoo users to communicate from Flickr. Facebook has never been afraid to make changes as it improves and I think Yahoo should do the same with Flickr

-Stop working on Games: Yahoo has had a good presence in online games for some time but has recently fallen off a bit to players like Zynga. I think the recent alliance with Zynga is the good thing to do. Games are too complex to be a focus for Yahoo and should be provided through alliances with Zynga and similar players.

-Put focus on Yahoo Finance: Yahoo Finance remains one of the leading finance websites on the internet despite being almost exactly the same that it was 5 years ago which is incredible. Yahoo created a powerful website that attracts very attractive and valuable users but has been slowly losing them as the product continues to fall behind competition. Yahoo should use the workforce that was working on Yahoo games to improve the finance website with better charts, data, more social capabilities and an improved look.

-Email: Make it more social, and start innovating. Yahoo Mail has one of the largest user bases of any email service and that should warrant hundreds of engineers working on improving the service. Spam detection, better organization, new features (viewing photos received or shared by email?). While Google has been rolling out improvements to Gmail every few weeks, Yahoo has remained the basic service that it was a few years ago.

-Buy Yelp (cost of approximately $265M): Yahoo’s strategy and focus on local is relevant and should be a major focus in the next few years. Buying Yelp would be a major first step in getting the commercial/business point of view. That could be integrated with what Yahoo is now building in terms of local news and information. Yahoo has a strong community presence in much of the US and the world and getting strong in hyperlocal websites will help it remain relevant.

-Get rid of Alibaba: Yahoo is not an ecommerce player and should not try to pretend being one. Buying a stake in Alibaba was a great business move but it should now be sold at the right place. Yahoo shareholders do not want to own a holding company.

-Buy Yodle (cost of approximately $250M): Yodle is a leader in local advertising which should be a major focus for Yahoo in the near future. Local is one of the two critical parts of the future for most internet companies (with mobile) and Yahoo has a major edge in local. Buying Yodle to improve its advertising capabilities and sales force is critical.

-Classifieds: Yahoo’s strong presence in local and its strong traffic should make it a much more important player in the classifieds/listings business. I would put the focus on market share through innovation, free listings, and high traffic in order to gain back some market share.

Any thoughts or ideas?

I would love to hear your thoughts or ideas regarding all of these initiatives!

Disclaimer: I am currently short Yahoo (YHOO)