Archive for October, 2010

Financial Ramblings

By: IS | Date posted: 10.30.2010 (5:00 am)

Good Saturday to all of you! Our retirement website DoNotWait.com still has a couple of days left to enter the contest to win an Ipad or other top prizes! Click here to learn the details.  There were many good readings, you can check out some of them here:

-M35 inc explained @ TheFinancialBlogger
-Bill Gates: The Miracle seeker @ Rolling Stone
-Tobacco stocks – where vice meets dividends @ TheDividendGuyBlog
-What would make me invest in the stock market? @ Balance Junkie
-Why following the crowd can lead to destruction @ KNSfinancial
-Where will your retirement income come from? @ DoNotWait
-Why currency hedged funds have large tracking errors @ CanadianCapitalist
-Low cost index trackers that will save you money @ Monevator
-Is Google a monopoly? @ The Big Picture
-12 stock for 10 years update @ Curious Cat

Quick news – October 29 2010

By: IS | Date posted: 10.29.2010 (5:03 pm)

Tech news: (concern the stocks we follow)

Expedia (EXPE) was raised to Buy by Caris & Company
Monster Worldwide (MWW) raised to buy by ThinkEquity
Expedia (EXPE) was cut to “Neutral” by Piper Jeffray

Best return:      Monster Worldwide (MWW) +25,50%


Worst return:    Apple (AAPL) -1,40%

Should Yahoo (YHOO) buy the New York Times (NYT) ? AOL (AOL) ? The Huffington Post?

By: IS | Date posted: 10.29.2010 (6:02 am)

Recent speculation that Yahoo came fairly close to buying the Huffington Post made me reflect on a few things regarding Yahoo. First off, with a lack of excitement, the company is desperate for some growth, something new and exciting is maybe the only way CEO Carol Bartz could buy a few more months at the head of Yahoo. The company does have plenty of cash and could look into a few options. Since the company has decided to basically outsource its search efforts to Microsoft’s (MSFT) Bing, it will now have its focus on content, entertainment and news. With that in mind, let’s take a quick look at 3 options:

-AOL (AOL): Cost Approx $3 billion - AOL has been discussed time and time again. The pros are that AOL has a huge inventory of stocks, has a solid presence in many of the segments that Yahoo has been competing in and is very strong in the local web which has been a major focus of Yahoo as well in recent years. One of big problems that I see is that AOL is already a very large and inefficient organization after years of restructures and changes. It is a vertical company and adding it to Yahoo would probably not make it much more efficient. It is also doubtful that Carol Bertz would press for this one as most rumors regarding a Yahoo-AOL deal speculate that AOL CEO Tim Armstrong would likely be in charge of the new company.

-NY Times (NYT) - Cost approx: $1.4 billion – The NY Times has been at the center of the news for years. The fact that it is fighting to stay alive gives us a very good idea of how bad things have gotten for “old media”. The Times, generally agreed as the top brand in the industry anywhere in the world has been slowly transitioning into a 21st centure media company and does have the most visited news website in the world. It is clear that the NY Times can get its fair share of revenues in this new era but what isn’t clear is how its cost structure can be modified to remain profitable. Yahoo would clearly benefit from acquiring such a strong brand and a quantity of content that is beyond anything it currently has. The Times has struggled with its revenue model, going back and forth between an ad supported model and a subscription based model. I would think  that Yahoo would be in a very good position to help the Times improve its digital strategy.

-Huffington Post (unlisted)Cost approx $200-250 million – The Huffington post is the player that you might never have heard about but is actually the runner up to the New York Times in terms of news traffic. Yahoo actually came close to buying the blog a few months ago but had deemed the cost too expensive. Well guess what, the price has jumped big time since then. The Huffington Post is probably the most efficient structure that you could get and Yahoo could certainly learn a lot by acquiring the private company. It’s not quite clear how well the integration would go but I think that Yahoo could certainly gain a lot from making this purchase. Given the much smaller cost, I think this is the best solution for Yahoo at the moment, it has limited risk, could help increase the efficiency of Yahoo across the company and would add growth to a company that is desperate to find some.

More on this topic (What's this?)
Yahoo’s New CEO Can’t Save The Sinking Ship
Read more on Aol Inc, Yahoo! at Wikinvest

Quick news – October 28 2010

By: IS | Date posted: 10.28.2010 (5:56 pm)

Tech news: (concern the stocks we follow)

Expedia (EXPE) reported earnings of $0.66 per share (est $0.59) on revenues of $987.9M (est $943.7M)
Monster Worldwide (MWW) reported a loss of $0.05 per share (adjusted EPS $0.02) (estimate $0) on revenues of $228.8M (est $223.7M)
Microsoft (MSFT) reported profits of $0.62 (estimate $0.55) on revenues of $16.2B (estimate $15.79B)
Research in Motion (RIMM) was downgraded to Perform by Oppenheimer

Best return:    Ebay (EBAY) +1,50%

Worst return:  NetEase (NTES) -2,11%

More on this topic (What's this?)
Adams Golf-Part One
Read more on Chun Yuan Steel, Tian AN China Invt at Wikinvest

One of the tricky parts about an online strategy

By: IS | Date posted: 10.28.2010 (4:11 am)

Managing an online business has many pros and cons but one of the very interesting aspects of the business is having its users turn against the company. I did mention how it happened to Ebay but that was because of a fee spike which to many of us would not be shocking. The extent would probably be more surprising.

Users can gang up for much “smaller reasons”

TechCrunch first reported on this but following a major design release, Digg.com, one of the older and influential social players saw its users revolt.

How?

They simply managed to get all of the news stories on the Digg frontpage pointing towards pages from Digg’s competitor “Reddit”, you can see the screenshot. It’s fascinating but also scary for any online business. I’m convinced that psychologists could easily find out a lot about users through such actions but what is clear is this can become a major concern for companies that have an online presence.

It is something I consider when investing in internet companies. A company as big as Google or Microsoft is so big and so diversified that it is doubtful that such a problem would occur. But investing in a company like Facebook will always have a certain amount of risk involved because the day that having a Facebook user is no longer seen as “cool” or “in”, things can change very quickly. How quickly? Well, we have discussed MySpace which went from social king to almost extinct in less than 5 years. Yes, it can happen that fast…

Take a look at the effect on traffic:

The Facebook case

Personally, I think Facebook remains the most important company in terms of potential problems. It is has escaped privacy issues and complaints about its ad targetting and remains one of the most analyzed companies. The release of a movie a few weeks ago describing the start of Facebook and giving more info about Mark Zuckerberg will surely surprise many users and as you saw with Digg, it just takes a few influential users to have a major effect on even huge websites. Is it likely? No. I think most users see that Facebook has been constantly improving its product and thus give the company a lot of “slack”.

How to evaluate such a factor?

I think it’s important to follow the news and when problems start arising, you will hear about it. In the case of Ebay, public complaints and users starting to boycott the service made news in the blogs and social networks months before having a noticable impact on the stock.  That did create an opportunity for investors who were aware of the situation to take action in one way or another.

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on EBay at Wikinvest

Quick news – October 27 2010

By: IS | Date posted: 10.27.2010 (7:56 pm)

Tech news: (concern the stocks we follow)

IAC Interactive (IACI) reported earnings of $0.32 (estimate $0.266) on revenues of $421.65M (estimate ($400M)
Yahoo (YHOO) finally upgraded its email website to include social features
Google (GOOG) is looking into buying an office in New York for $2 billions

Best return:      IAC Interactive (IACI) +4,23%

Worst return:     NetEase (NTES) -1,97%