Archive for October, 2009

Current Positions commentary

By: IS | Date posted: 10.23.2009 (4:00 pm)

A few weeks ago, I had made 3 picks for the 4th quarter of 2009 so I thought it might be a good idea to take a quick look at how the positions have been doing since they were put in place.

Basically, the average of the 3 trades made that week is up 1,20%, which is not bad.

Here are the returns so far:

Long AAPL-Short INTC:     +7.19%
Both companies have announced good earnings but there is still a lot of momentum on this trade and I am hoping the launch of the Ereader will be enough to push this trade past 20%!

aapl1

intc1

Long CTRP-Short EXPE: -13.22%

I have been a bit surprised by the underperformance of this trade given that this is a valuation trade, I still believe in this position am hoping it does not breach -20%…!

ctrp1

expe1

Long GOOG-Short IACI: +9.64%

This trade lost a few feathers but it is still up almost 10%. Google has been a bit on the defensive this week regarding its competition with Bing but remains as strong as ever while IACI remains unable to do much to impress

goog1

iaci1

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Investors making the same mistakes over and over…

By: IS | Date posted: 10.23.2009 (5:30 am)

jmHave you heard of John Meriwether? He was front in center in the famous collapse of Long Term Capital Management, the biggest ever hedge fund collapse losing $4.6 billion in less than 4 months because of the collapse of the Russian government bonds.
Then, just a few months ago, he was forced to close his second hedge fund after it lost 44% of its value during the recent financial crisis. You would think that would be it right? Who in their right mind would still be giving this guy their money to manage after two famous failures. It’s not like it’s not eeasy to find this information.
And yet, here we go again. John is launching a new venture, “JM Advisors management”, it will be accepting new investors in 2010. Not convinced? It will apparently be using the same relative value strategies that were used in the two previous hedge funds. The strategy tends to deliver big returns in calm and more predictable periods as it profits from mispricings between similar assets.
The problem of course is that it seems to not have much protection when markets start acting in more irrational ways. And of course to boost its returns, it uses a lot of leverage. LTCM used leverage close to 25 times its capital while his latest venture was closer to 10.
We do not yet know how to proceed to invest in the fund but will be sure to give you indications as information becomes available…. Seriously, who is crazy enough to invest their money in such managers who appear to underestimate downside risk time after time after time. And this is not a one time problem. Brian Hunter, who had a very spectacular collapse while working at Amaranth is still working in the hedge fund industry and also did not have any problems getting back in the market, with investors more than willing to give up their funds… are there not enough good managers???
Truth is, I do not have a clear answer but here are the possible reasons that I could imagine:

1-These guys did have some good returns: in fact good is probably an understatement. LTCM had achieved very impressive returns in its earlier years and had certainly showed that the strategy could work “under the right circumstances”.

2-No doubt that such smart individuals are probably to convince everyone (including themselves) that they learned from their mistakes and would be able to avoid the collapse or large loss the next time around

3- Truth is, many of these managers are so well connected that they have “believers” who will invest under almost any circumstance.

4-Finally, I think many investors know that these are home run hitters that will either get a huge return or strike out. Even the thought of missing out on some incredible returns is often enough to convince some to put up a chunk of money.

What are your thoughts? Could you imagine yourself investing in a very smart and impressive fund manager who has unfortunately suffered a couple of major losses?

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The flaws of fixed income ETF’s

By: IS | Date posted: 10.21.2009 (5:00 am)

bondsIt is no secret by now, I am a fan of ETF’s (especially when compared with mutual funds) and I have discussed in the past how fixed income ETF’s have been receiving very important flows in the past year or so. You will not be surprised to hear that I am one of those new investors. But ETF’s are not perfect, especially fixed income ones. There has been increasing attention towards the different problems that can be found in fixed income ETF’s in articles by the mainstream media.

The main problem I would say is that most fixed income ETF’s invest in a very large amount of bond issues. This is logical of course because it avoids too much concentration in a single name/issue. Unfortunately, this does create problems. One of the main advantages of ETF’s is the liquidity offered in most cases. This liquidity comes from the fact that at any point, an investor can sell the underlying securities and buy the ETF if ever the pricing of the ETF is incorrect. The opposite is also done of course. However, this “arbitrage” is rarely if ever done on fixed income ETF’s because the costs are too important for a hedger to be able to do this trade. Since bonds do not trade on a market, buying or selling every issue that the ETF owns can become quite an adventure. Because of that, fixed income ETF pricing is more “imperfect”.

Another main critic is that ETF’s usually track indexes. For equity ETF’s, they usually track the main indexes or specific countries or sectors.  For bond ETF’s, it is more abstract. There are of course many different bond benchmarks. But tracking them is more of an imperfect science. These benchmarks often have issues that are almost impossible to trade, especially in the quantities required for the ETF. So these funds are left with a choice of how to correctly track the benchmark without having the exact components. There are many ways to do this but they are all imperfect. So fixed income ETF’s do suffer from more tracking error. It can be positive or negative but it is a problem for most investors.

And finally, there is less transparency for fixed income ETF investors. They can get a list of every bond owned by the ETF but they will not know which bond is being sold, bought and why. This can make a major impact and it is a phenomenon that is not much of a problem in equity ETF’s.

Do fixed income ETF’s have many significant flaws? Absolutely. But I think it is critical for investors to think about the alternatives. If they want to avoid the ETF, they can either buy bond issues themselves or purchase mutual funds. Of course, I would never recommend getting a mutual fund. And the next time you buy a bond, take a close look at your purchase price. Spreads are very high and since the market is illiquid and non transparent, investors, especially smaller ones are often taken advantage of. For these reasons, you can still count me in as a fixed income ETF investor

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Billion in earnings for Tiger Woods

By: IS | Date posted: 10.19.2009 (5:00 am)

tiger-woods3Tiger Woods is without a doubt the most famous athlete of a generation, if not of all times. Again and again, Tiger has proved how marketable he is and for that exact reason, an almost endless list of corporations are lined up to associate their name with the pro golfer. And thanks to that, he can command very very high prices from his sponsors.

Woods, now 33 years old, has now reached the billion dollars fortune according to Forbes magazine, becomming the first pro athlete to ever reach such an achievement. This came in a year where he made over $100 million in sponsorships which is now the average he is expected to receive. Even such stars as Michael Jordan as well Formula 1 driver Michael Schumacher never went beyond $70M in a year.

It is not quite clear what Tiger is doing with all of his money. He does have a foundation but he has been fairly secretive about what kind of investments he is making.  And at 33, it seems like there is almost no limit to what Tiger will be able to achieve in his career both on the golf course and in terms of earnings. He does hang out with other superstars such as Roger Federer but up until now, Tiger has been in a league of his own in terms of earnings. If even an athlete like Roger Federer, deemed the best of all time in his sport, is unable to even come close to Tiger’s achivements, it is difficult to imagine what kind of athlete would have the best shot.

Do you think other athletes will one day be able to surpass Tiger’s current records? Of course, with time, athletes have been getting better and better numbers but it is difficult to imagine an athlete that would be able to be big enough to generate as much interest from the corporate world.

You can see a nice slideshow that gives a breakdown of Tiger’s earnings here.

Financial Ramblings – Dow at 10,000

By: IS | Date posted: 10.17.2009 (5:44 am)

djiGood weekend everyone! An up and down week and commodities continue to show extreme volatility, here are some of the more interesting readings I enjoyed in the past week:

-Will Oil reach 100$ in 2009 or perhaps even earlier?
-Technical analysis of Baidu (BIDU)
-Inspirational article about charity on GLBL
-Travelling with credit cards rewards, how to do it without hassles over at Best Canadian Credit Card Finder.
-Very good article from MDJ about who should pay for dates :)
-TheDigitariLife has its opinion on the Dow at 10,000… it may not last!
-TFB shows how we are not exactly living the 2nd great depression
-In general, I’m opposed to market timing except for speculative investment, here are some pros and cons
-Hopefully not an article you will need, preparing for an emergency
-Is gold still a good investment, read a few arguments here

The Dow hit 10,000..that is so last century

By: IS | Date posted: 10.16.2009 (5:00 am)

Wall StreetYou may have heard about it, the Down Jones Industrial average, better known as the Dow, hit the high mark of 10,000 yesterday, a cause for celebration in trading rooms and living rooms across the world, or is it? When I mention in the title that the Dow Jones hitting 10,000 is so last century, it is not an exageration. Fact is, the index hit 10,000 in 1999.

So did we just lose 10 years of investing? Not quite. We actually learned a lot, lived through the tragic 9/11, the technology bubble, the more recent credit crisis and housing bubble. As well, many of the Dow components (30 stocks of large US companies) do pay dividends so the return is not exactly 0% in the past decade..although it’s not a whole lot better either.

I’ve attached a chart of the Dow Jones Index since January 1st 1999. It has moved a lot but overall there is little to show for it.

dji

But seeing the news of getting to 10,000 all over the news, tv screens, newspapers and soon on magazine cover pages brings up a few questions.

Is the Dow Jones even relevant?

I’ve discussed this in the past. Basically, I do not really understand how the index is even still relevant and why it is discussed so much. Truth is that an index that has only 30 components and where bad performers are taken out to be replaced by “better” ones seems like an index that is bound to perform well no matter what. It’s not that surprising that a decade ago some were predicting that the Dow would reach levels of 20,000, 30,000 and in some cases even 50,000. To me, there are some indexes that are worth looking at such as the S&P500, which gives a much better indication of the global US economy as well as the US markets as a whole.. But the Dow Jones? Please!

Are there even consequences of getting to 10,000?

Absolutely. I’ll be the first one to tell you reaching 10K does not make any stock more attractive but the reality is that it does change things. When reaching 10,000, the Dow Jones generates interest and news. Reporters will discuss it, write about it, get ideas ofr their next magazine covers. You can be certain of one thing. Even someone who is not interested in the stock markets will probably still hear about the index getting to back to this level.

Psychological effect

And this of course will have an indirect impact on the market. Think about all of those passive investors that have been scared for months to even look at their portfolio. Suddenly, it seems as if things look a lot brighter. Consequence? They might call their advisor and tell them they’d like to get back in the market, or go out themselves and buy. Pschology has a huge impact on the financial markets and reaching a milestone like this is bound to create feelings for investors. This of course creates opportunities as well..the question is where we can find those of course!

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