Archive for September, 2009

Stock picks – Q3 Update – Back on top

By: IS | Date posted: 09.30.2009 (4:39 pm)

baiduI can’t say I am disapointed to see the quarter come to an end as I am back on top of the rankings, with a comfortable lead. Actually, I’ve been fortunate enough to have been leading most of the year but I did slip into 2nd place long enough to actually not be first in Q2.

Choosing picks for an entire year will always be quite a challenge as so many elements can change. As I have discussed in the past, if I were able to update my positions right now, I would probably get rid of at least 1. But overall, I’m quite satisfied with the return and obviously with the ranking. I do feel like I was less aggressive than many other participants, especially those that went into these categories:

-Commodities
-Leveraged ETF’s
-Small caps

Many different strategies can work and I guess it’s logical to be aggressive to try to win but I did try to go for positions that I believe not to have much downside risk. And while for example I thought oil was going to rebound, there was just too much uncertainty in the world to actually think about taking all 4 picks around oil. So I diversified in a way. Will it end up being enough to win? Tough to say but let’s say I prefer being in my position right now! Without further wait, here are the returns of my 4 stocks:

The picks

USO – +9.34% - Like many, I had imagined that if the world economy could fight its way out of the recession, oil would surely benefit and while it might not reach the levels of a year ago, it seemed like a safe bet to expect a rise in the price of the “blood of the world”. I’m a bit surprised oil did not pick up more steam but I’m confident with my position and do think it has more upsize in the remaining quarter. It also turned out to be a bit of a hedge against those other bloggers who took oil stocks (although those who did usually picked a few picks so probably would not have helped if oil had been up to 150$).

uso

GLD – +14.25% – This was another fairly safe pick as I did believe that the uncertainty regarding the world economy would help take gold to new levels. As well, with all of the money that was pumped into the systems, many still regard inflation as a significant threat and gold seemed like a good bet in 2009. It has not proved as profitable as hoped but that is mainly because the stock markets have moved much higher and my two next bets were the ones that would really profit from a market recovery

gld

Technology picks:

Technology is probably the area I know most about and so I did choose two companies that I believed to be undervalued, Baidu (BIDU) and Ebay (EBAY):

EBAY – +69.13% – Ebay has been picked on for a few years now but 2008 was a very tough year for the stock and as I had wrote, I believed that most analysts were not picking up the value of Skype & Paypal when evaluating the stock. When the stock market recovered, Ebay decided to sell a majority portion of its Skype business, thus obviously “helping” investors notice how much the business was worth. Ebay even mentioned the idea it could sell Paypal. While that does not excite me very much in regards to Ebay’s long term future, these actions certainly do help Ebay’s current valuation.

ebay

BIDU – +199.13% – Out of all picks made by the bloggers, this is the winner so far! Bidu has nearly tripled as it continues to hold its ground against Google in China. It is now even thinking of expansion in Japan. One of the big reasons why I think Baidu had been undervalued was that many analysts believed that Baidu will end up having legal problems because of many of its activities. As I have written in the past, I think it’s important to remember that Baidu operates in a very different environment and for the moment, Chinese authorities have much bigger issues to worry about. At this point, I do not have many expectations for the 4th quarter for Baidu considering its already very impressive ride this year.

bidu

So these 4 picks give me a 73.05% return, here is the ranking so far. As other bloggers publish their articles, I will add links towards their analysis:

1-IntelligentSpeculator    73.05%
2-TheWildInvestor 56.78%
3-FourPillars 44.26%
4-Wheredoesallmymoneygo 43.01%
5-TheFinancialBlogger 24.49%
6-DividendGrowth 11.51%
7-MDJ 8.49%
8-MyTradersJournal -3.16%
9-ZachStocks    -13.17%

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Ever heard of the name Ashley Alexandra Dupre? Probably not.

By: IS | Date posted: 09.30.2009 (5:00 am)


But when you hear about former attorney general Elliot Spitzer’s high priced hooker, then you will probably have memories of hearing about the story. When it is said that no advertising is bad advertising, she would seem like the ultimate test wouldn’t she? She was a prostitute, sleeping with a married, high profile man. As far as getting a good reputation, we could say she had a disastrous start right?

But turns out, she is now doing better than ever. She has her own website, is launching her first record, is being invited to celebrity events, is being lured to write an autobiography, etc. I find it very interesting to see how well she is doing and to me, this is one of those ultimate examples that one of the only things worth doing for a corporation on the internet is to get attention. She has had some success with her song releases so far, giving interviews to the NY Post and would be sure to sell millions if she ever does write that book.

We had discussed Puma’s new stock index and if it would really pay off. I do see links between the two stories. One sure thing is that Puma cares more about getting attention for now than about actually selling clothes and that is probably a clever strategy. Will Nike and Adidas one day be playing catch up on the web or regret not being aggressive or edgy enough?

In my opinion, too many corporations worry about the impact of different possibilities on the internet when in fact, it is important to live on the edge, in order to even have a shot of being talked about, gaining attention and hopefully going viral. In a past column, I had discussed how I believed Pepsi was using the web much more efficiently than Coca-Cola and I believe it can have an important impact. Companies like GoDaddy are able to generate a lot of buzz and get their name out there while others spend many times more on marketing without much results…

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Alexandra at Wikinvest

A more “entertaining” way to follow stock markets

By: IS | Date posted: 09.28.2009 (5:00 am)

It would have been incredibly brilliant if it had launched a year earlier but is still a good enough idea to generate buzz and excitement. This is a perfect example of an attempt at viral marketing. The objective of course is to get people to talk about the video as well as the idea. Then, of course, viewers will either send links to the video by email, Twitter, Facebook or even discuss it on blogs such as this one. It is an innovative way to get more eyeballs on its website.

I would say that this video has a good shot at becomming a hit and with close to 200,000 views on Youtube alone, without even having launched the product officially, chances are good that this will be a multi-million visitor idea, and probably considered a success. The advantage of course is that the costs are so slim to generate such a video.

Now the big question of course is if the they will be able to make a decent return on their investment. Chances are they will. Right now, they are collecting emails on their website as well as getting their name out there which as you will see on my post Wednesday, is always good. The saying that there is no “bad promotion” is certainly as true as ever in this internet era.

What are your thoughts on the Puma Index?

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Financial Ramblings

By: IS | Date posted: 09.27.2009 (10:02 am)

oil-and-gas-well-at-sunset6We had an interesting week in the markets with lots of action but most markets ending up down for the week and some already talking about a new crash? I’m not a big fan of the theory, but it should make next week very interesting!! Here are a few of the more interesting reads from last week in the blogosphere:

-TFB discusses the top Canadian dividend stocks as well as positions 11 through 20!
-Zach discusses credit card defaults rising and rising!
-A good post on GLBL about getting personal finances back under control
-MDJ: What is important about having m0ney for you?
-I did talk about fixed income ETF’s look at a trade on one of them here :)
-How emotions affect fixed income investors by Canadian Capitalist
-A great article by FP..how to find and select a tenant!
-Will interest rates stay low forever by TCT!
-Citigroup suing Morgan Stanley over Credit Default swap agreement..!

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Investing in Canada at Wikinvest

Ebay to do the unthinkable?

By: IS | Date posted: 09.25.2009 (4:41 am)

ebay-logo1In the start of the year’s stock competition, I had picked Ebay as one of my four picks and while it is not my best pick, its 68% return so far in 2009 has been impressive, especially considering how it continues to make bad business decisions. While the main problem with Ebay is that it seems to lack innovation and while it had many superior products, it is slowly but surely losing its lead in its different segments.

At the start of the month, I suggested it was time to dump Ebay after it decided to part with most of its Skype business. Now, to my surprise, Ebay CEO John Donahoe confirmed he was open to spinning off Paypal, which in my opinion is probably the most attractive part of the company at the moment. “When I feel the business will be better off separately, we’ll do what we did with Skype,” To even publicly talk about this is worrying long term for the company. Of course, this could help the stock short term as there is no doubt that there would be a long line of potential buyers for Paypal if Ebay was to decide to sell it.

The problem though is that discussing it publicly will probably not help inspire innovation or encourage those working at Paypal. Actually, I do not see much upsize in going out and saying this and would say this was probably a mistake by the EBay CEO.

One thing that is certain though is that if Ebay does actually decide to sell, I’ll be thinking about holding Ebay as the company looks for buyers.. but be sure that I would drop out as soon as the sale is complete, there will not be much value left in the company if ever they do part with their electronic payment segment which has been responsible for much of Ebay’s growth in recent years.

Feel like throwing money out of the window?

By: IS | Date posted: 09.23.2009 (5:00 am)

It is quite interesting to see funds flow in and out of ETF’s. However, it is often difficult to compare ETF’s as they often do not target exactly the same returns. But in some cases, several ETF’s track the same index but with very different charges. Why would you invest in a fund that charges over twice the fees if it targets (and pretty much meets) the same returns before fees. A very interesting case is taking place in the emerging market ETF’s.

One on hand, there is the very known EEM, managed by Ishares, that charges .72% of fees, which is high but seems reasonable considering it invests in many different illiquid markets. EEM has $31.7 Bn under management, a very impressive amount. But then consider Vanguard’s VWO fund which tracks the same index, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. It charges .27% of fees, not even half of the fees charged by Ishares. Since it is not as known, VWO still has fewer assets under management, at $22.7 Bn.

The question of course is why someone would choose to invest in EEM when in fact you could pay fewer fees for the same return? One reason could be that you think one manager will not be able to achieve the promised return. In this case, both companies have a very solid reputation, both funds have a good history and you can look at this graph, there is in fact almost no difference between the return of the two funds.

You can take a look at the differences between the two here:

eem_vwo
As you can see, they are pretty much identical so paying 0.45% more of fees does not sound like a good deal. There are rumours that Ishares will reduce the fees it charges later this year on EEM but for now, with as the largest emerging markets fund, it has little incentive to actually do so. If two funds offer the same return but one has a better reputation, strangely, many investors fly to that one.

Of course, I would not switch based simply on fees to a new and unproved company. But Vanguard is far from that and I will be the first one to buy VWO the next time I buy emerging markets ETF’s. I have stated numerous times that I am a fan of Ishares, but not fan enough to throw money out of my window… Of course, if you would like to do so, be my guest, I’ll be sitting outside to collect:)

eem_vwo2

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