Archive for March, 2009

IS recommended readings!

By: IS | Date posted: 03.21.2009 (10:07 am)

india-stock-marketIt wasn’t a good week for us in the markets, but we still had a good time looking over the web. Many interesting readings, here are a few of my favourites:

Wealth Strategy: Track your Net Worth – excellent motivating article by MDJ about how to track and improve your financial situation

Zach agrees that Blue Nile(NILE) is overvalued, check out Blue Nile – Pricey and dangerous

Is UK going bankrupt or Is It just another witch hunt? by TheFinancialBlogger

Wild Investor presents the State of Microsoft

We also found two great carnivals:

hosted by Penny Daily

Carnival of Personal Finance

More on this topic (What's this?)
Looking at the bright side of things today
Read more on Blue Nile at Wikinvest

Closing 2 trades

By: IS | Date posted: 03.20.2009 (7:01 am)

Well, unfortunately, today was no different and two trades will have to closed this morning:

As of yesterday’s close:

GOOG-VCLK: -23,0%

PCLN-NILE: -21,55%

This brings down the performance of 2009 picks to 3.25% on average per pick, which is not bad, but certainly a lot worse than even 1 week ago! Oh well, I should be making a new pick on Monday, hopefully will get back on the right track!

Should Google(GOOG) feel threatened by Twitter & Facebook?

By: IS | Date posted: 03.20.2009 (4:00 am)

googBy most measures, Google is the internet giant and perhaps even the company that represents technology the most. And it seems like in every arena, Google is thriving and gaining market share not only through its great marketing, but also, quite simply because its products are generally of superior quality. The most obvious example is search, where Google has been the leader for years with the brightest and richest doing their best to catch up without any success to show for. Unless of course you consider slowing down your market share losses… And even in newer areas such as news and more importantly mobile, Google is gaining grounds on established rivals and looks about as unbeatable as Microsoft seemed a decade or so ago.

There is one surprising area where Google is not putting up much effort or able to have much of a presence; the social internet. It is surprising because it is the most discussed topic in many arenas. Google’s efforts in mobile are very understandable and logical. Its lack of effort in social media is not. Facebook and Twitter have gained significant size and have huge momentum making it difficult, even for Google to play catch up if it enters the game. Of course, Google orkutdoes have such a website in Orkut. But how many of you have actually heard of it? Sure, if you are located in Brazil or India, then you do know about it and perhaps have a profile. But with no offence, that is not exactly where the battled will be played out.

twitter1There have been rumors about Google being in discussions with Twitter for an acquisition, Google has politely said it was not shopping for now. Of course, in many ways, such a deal would not be surprising. facebookThink about how Google purchased Youtube to instantly gain the lead in online video. But it is playing a dangerous games, as other rivals (including Facebook) could snap it before. And before you ask, Facebook is partially owned by Microsoft so its doubtful Google could do much if that happened. So it is surprising to see Google put up so little effort in social media despite it being snagged as the next big thing by many.

Does it really matter?

Google execs are smart, so you would think that if they are not spending energy on social media, it is because they do not consider it a key for their future. They have even went out of their way to clear that in their opinion, Twitter has no viable way to enter the search market. Who are we to doubt Google but I personally do not agree with this. Having millions of users and helping them connect with their family, friends, lost friends, loved ones, favourite artists, favourite brands. There is surely value in that. And in many ways, when Google says its goal is to organize the world’s information, you would think that Facebook, Twitter and others would have an incredible amount of data that could be used in many commercial and non-commercial ways. Already, Twitter has started to make headlines because it is now increasingly used by politicians in the US to communicate with citizens. Isn’t that critical?

I think Google is simply too big to ignore and even take a risk on this. Considering the costs involved, Google should either get serious about buying Twitter or put some serious energy in Orkut before it’s too late. We do not know how Facebook, Myspace and Twitter will evolve but there is no doubt that they have increasing power and knowledge about an increasing proportion of the world’s population, and that should not be ignored.

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Google at Wikinvest

Tough day and week!!

By: IS | Date posted: 03.19.2009 (5:02 am)

For most investors, the past few days have been great to watch with the S&P 500 up over 17% in the past 7 trading days, quite impressive! However, our own picks have been struggling this week, mainly two trades, the PCLN/NILE trade has been going through some tough times as Blue Nile surges forward. I recommend checking out Zach’s post about Nile’s recent rise. I think and hope he will turn out right!

The other trade that has gone through tough times is Google vs Valueclick. Again, I’m comfortable with the position but with it being close to my stop loss, I’m hoping for a rebound today to keep this one going and not have to close a first losing trade in 2009!

More on this topic (What's this?)
Jeremy Siegel: S&P’s Earnings Wrong
Price Wimps of the S&P 500
Read more on Karl Thomson, S&P 500 (SPX), Blue Nile at Wikinvest

Yahoo(YHOO) – more confusion ahead???

By: IS | Date posted: 03.18.2009 (4:00 am)

yhoo1A few years ago, Yahoo had emerged from the dot com bust with a little confusion about what it was. It has always been a bit complicated to explain what Yahoo is about. Google (GOOG) clearly has stated its objective to “Organize the world’s information” and generally has been consistent with that message. Yahoo on the other hand has many different goals, mostly related to being a web directory but also offering various services related to dating, finance, etc. Many of the users do not even know that the service they are using is powered by Yahoo.

However, one thing that was clear from a few years ago was that it was not in the business of producing content, only delivering them. And that made sense because one of the problems of Yahoo is its lack of focus. But on Monday, they announced the launch of a series of niche web shows that they say will not be competing with tv shows. Perhaps true, but it is once again difficult to see what Yahoo’s goal is with this new project. “We may have come at it from the wrong way in the previous era,” Sibyl Goldman, the head of entertainment for Yahoo, told the New York Times. “The one-way model – ‘We think this is great, we hope you come watch it’ – may have been more of a TV mindset,” she said.

Could it be profitable? Yes of course, there is no doubt that it could become so. But I somehow doubt that Yahoo currently has the creative team to make this happen which will force the company to spend much needed time and energy on a new project that could be spent elsewhere. Improving the finance network as well as the search and advertising capabilities seem to be higher priorities in my opinion. They are banking on sponsorship deals with companies such as Verizon and State Farm but that again seems like a short term move.

And if Yahoo really thinks it should have an important online presence online, it would have been much better to spend energy on building it in earlier stages. Now that competitors from Youtube to Hulu or TV.com have gained such an important market share, it will be very expensive to catch up from the slow start Yahoo had in this sector.

They claim to be getting 400,000 views on short clips, which is still very far behind Youtube’s daily hits in the tens and hundreds of millions. Just seems like Yahoo is either very late to the game or should have never even entered this one….

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Yahoo! at Wikinvest

Quick post

By: IS | Date posted: 03.17.2009 (4:21 am)

Good morning everyone!

I just wanted to inform you that we have written a guest post on fellow blog “The Wild Investor“, you can see our post here! I will be posting a similar article about Yahoo(YHOO) tomorrow as they unfortunately have some things in common with the New York Times, especially when it comes to its internet strategy (which in Yahoo’s case is critical obviously).

Also, we will be following Baidu(BIDU) in the next few days. It had an impressive up move and is starting to give some of it back which could provide an opportunity to go ahead with a new trade. Of course, my “favourite short” right now, Yahoo(YHOO) is already in play but there are other options.

Anyway, should be an interesting day of trading!