Archive for December, 2008

4 winners for 2009

By: admin | Date posted: 12.31.2008 (4:38 pm)

Happy new year to everyone.

This first post of 2009 will be a bit longer than usual posts as I entered a friendly competition with a few other bloggers. The rules are very simple. Pick 4 stocks and the winner will have the best return on those 4 picks for the 2009 year. It should be very interesting as things could change a whole lot over the course of a complete year. I will describe my 4 picks along with a few of the reasons behind them. I will then link to picks by my fellow bloggers:

I hesitated between picking only ETF’s or only specific companies and finally decided to pick 2 of each, so here we go:

#1-GLD: There is a lot of speculation about the direction of Gold in 2009 and I see this as a play on a few fundamentals of the economy. First off, I can only see the US dollar going down in 2008 and that would be bullish for gold in my opinion. As well, with both Euros and US Dollars now looking very expensive, there is a good possibility that investors will turn to gold. GLD is a very solid ETF, has no problems with liquidity and I see good possibilities for this investment if the economy rebounds but also even if the economy has a relapse.

#2-USO: This pick might have a tougher time at the start of 2009 but I cannot imagine having oil at 35-40$ at year’s end, it will just put too much pressure on supplies. Sure, demand has decreased recently with the global economic slowdown. But the world GDP is still positive and there is still very much an increase in demand in the world. There is supply in many other areas of the world outside of OPEC but the problem is that they cannot sustain producing oil at such low prices. Therefore, I foresee that eventually oil prices will increase in order to be able to pick up the production and account for the increased demand. I was tempted in picking a solar energy ETF here because it is somewhat of a similar play as they are so correlated. Solar energy also benefits from huge push in renewable energy from the US and foreign governments. However, there is still a lot of unknowns about the market and its profitability so I decided to stick with USO.

#3-BIDU: This stock got slammed big time in recent months when news came out about the search engine being paid to display ads for illegal pharmeutical ads. They got hit very severely but as I had said back then, Baidu operates in China, things are a bit different and the offence, while serious, is not as serious as it would have been had it occurred for a US company. Their earnings are still strong, they still have solid growth and are undervalued in my opinion.

#4-EBAY: Ebay has been also under a lot of pressure as news of declining traffic and trouble ahead has overshadowed growth in other segments. I do believe that Ebay will have a good year although it might be under more pressure in the next 2-3 months.

So there you have it, my picks for 2009. On a quarterly basis, I will be writing about the performance of these 4 as well as the performance by the picks by my fellow bloggers. Here are links to other picks, please note that some of them are not yet published so you might need to click a bit later on:)

MyTradersjournal 2009 picks

Where does all my money go 2009 picks

Dividendgrowthinvestor 2009 picks

Four Pillars 2009 Picks

Zach stocks 2009 picks

The Wild Investor 2009 picks

TheFinancialBlogger 2009 picks

Million Dollar Journey 2009 picks

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4 Short Opportunities To Consider This Year
Read more on Wharf (HLDGS) at Wikinvest

Is owning a sports team an investment or a hobby?

By: admin | Date posted: 12.31.2008 (4:00 am)

I’ll just give you my opinion as I don’t think there is a black or white answer to this question, but what got me thinking is the recent decision by Honda to let go of its much praised Formula racing team.

It was purchased by the world’s second richest man, Carlos Slim. On the surface, this is what it looks like to me. Owning a sports team is a lot more a hobby than anything else. Honda has said it would save over $300 millions. Now sure, winning had the potential of perhaps brand enhancement and maybe indirect sales but $300 millions? Was it perhaps nothing more than a little toy?

How about baseball teams like the New York Yankees or the Montreal Canadiens? In good years, they are able to bring in a profit of course. But they also have tougher times and it seems difficult to imagine that the reason they are in the business is to make money. Pro teams often are more about the passion of a specific owner than anything else. Does it just so happen that once an owner makes so much money in a business, he is ready to enter a business for the simple reason of having an extra adrenaline knowing that his team is playing for the highest awards possible?

Some of the most famous teams are currently for sale as their owners struggle with the finances. The Chicago Cubs, perhaps one of the 5 most famous sports teams has been for sale for a few months now but has not received any serious offers. If it was a wise business decision, you’d think that even in the current environment there would be some good offers.

Of course, there have been some great stories as well. The NY Yankees for example were purchased by George Steinbrenner for $10 millions in 1973 but are now worth $1 billion according to Forbes magazine, a brilliant investment no matter by what measure.

What is your opinion about all of this?

120th Festival of Stocks – Who Wants to Become a Millionaire? Edition

By: admin | Date posted: 12.29.2008 (5:00 am)

Welcome to the 120th Festival of Stocks!!!

In these hard financial times, most people are thinking “how can I retire now that my pension plan flew away?”. And I am asking “how can I become a millionaire?”.

Stock markets are filled with opportunities to make you richer; especially since all markets went down 40%! You will find a great start in theses posts in order to rearrange your portfolio or better, start investing!

To start this festival, I encourage you to read this story first:

Joy presents The Weirdest Story Ever about Trading and Finance posted at Fulfilled Dreams.

Investing Advices and Information:

In order to invest properly, you need to learn about the world of investing. There are several financial products, terms and tools to master before buying a company stocks. In this section, you will learn about mutual funds, ETF’s, savings account and Morningstar.

Retire Happy presents All About Mutual Fund Loads posted at My Retirement Blog.


DR presents Morningstar User Guide posted at DR’s Money Management Blog.

Jim presents The 50-50 Mutual Fund Rule on Blueprint for Financial Prosperity posted at Blueprint for Financial Prosperity.

Surfer Sam presents Buy 500 Companies for $1,000 with a Stock Index Mutual Fund posted at Surfer Sam and Friends.

MBB presents Review Of ETrade Savings Bank and Broker posted at Money Blue Book Finance.

Jae Jun presents Forbes Best Small Companies: Part 4 posted at Old School Value.

Investing School presents Adding an Online Savings Account as Part of Your Investment Strategy posted at Investing School.

Investing Strategies:

Now that you have learned some of the basics in investing, it is time to build a strong investing strategy. You can’t just go in the market like a crazy dog chasing cars. You need to setup a plan and establish your goals according to your resources.

FIRE Finance presents Want To Be A Millionaire? Follow the YAWN Philosophy posted at FIRE Finance.


Ben presents How To Build a Successful Trading Plan posted at Stock Trading Success.

Adam Freedman presents Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful posted at The Investor’s Journal.

Stocks and Trading:

So now it is time to give you an example of which stocks and trading approach people have. These people are cherry pickers. They try to get the best cherries out of every field. Are you going to be fit?

D4L presents Stock Analysis: Associated Banc-Corp (ASBC) posted at Dividends4Life.

Steve Alexander presents Quick Take: EMCOR Group (EME) posted at MagicDiligence – The Best Magic Formula Stocks.

Declan Fallon presents Stocks for 2009 posted at Zignals blog.


Don presents Stock Trading On Margin posted at Beginners Investing Guide.

Bill Spohnholtz presents JNJ Stock posted at Learn The Stock Market And How to Trade.

Sun presents Chinese ADRs Monthly Update – November 2008 posted at Earn More and Invest Wisely at The Sun’s Financial Diary.

Yeah, that was probably not enough to become a millionaire with the stock market. However, I still believe it was a great start and that you probably know more now about trading and investing than before reading this carnival. I hope you enjoyed it!

image source: FreeFoto.com (books), freedigitalphotos.net (cherries), Titangoober.com (dog)

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on How To Invest at Wikinvest

Investment Talking

By: admin | Date posted: 12.27.2008 (8:05 am)

I didn’t read much article this week due to numerous Christmas paties. I will also be hosting the Festival of Stock next Monday. You still have today and tomorrow to submit your best investing post ;-)

I’ll leave you with some great carnivals:

Carnivals:

Festival of Stocks

Carnival of Investing

Money Hacks Carnival

Did you say bonus?

By: admin | Date posted: 12.24.2008 (4:00 am)

Wow, talk about different times. Only a few months ago, employees in the financial world and elsewhere were mostly planning what would happen to their 2008 bonus. When they were created, bonus and other incentives were created in order to benefit shareholders. How? Simply by creating extra motivation for employees to generate more profit which would in the end get extra return for the shareholders.

But somewhere along the way, things got lost, especially in such sectors as financials. In some ways, it became less about the performance and more about simply doing the job. And it also became more of an added salary than about anything related to performance. At some point, a bonus became something related to the number of years of experience and something that employees expected and even included in their budget.

That drew things way further than anyone could have imagined giving managers no reason to use caution in their decisions and no reason really to look into the interests of the shareholders. The problem was that it became such an exageration that the system eventually collapsed with banks and other firms taking on too much risk to be able to sustain any downturn of their assets. Say what you want about the actual crisis, about how it is unique and was unpredictable. But you would the best firms in the business to be able to sustain such a crisis, no matter how unique it was. Were the bonuses the cause of it all? No, they certainly were not. But looking into them gives you a good idea of the unique culture that existed on Wall Street and in many other sectors.

A bonus should be given according to performance of course. But it should also be given with the interest of shareholders in mind. Credit Suisse had a creative way of getting it done as it has decided to pay the bonus this year by giving out portions of the illiquid assets to its employees, using about $5 billions to do so. In order to profit from them, employees will have to remain there for a long time and this will also help Credit Suisse in its task of deleveraging. Seems like a win-win right? I think it’s creative and certainly an interesting way to get it done.

Other companies such as Google are getting smashed for lowering their bonus. Sure, employees went from getting about 1000$ on average (although other reports say some employees received up to 20-30K) to getting a mobile phone this year. But with the stock going down so much, isn’t it normal that shareholders AND employees share the downfall? I just think a bonus should be a reward for performance, of the employee and of the company, not something to take for granted as was too often the case in recent years…

Time to get into oil??

By: admin | Date posted: 12.22.2008 (4:00 am)

Oil, the much discussed and much hyped resource has been getting absolutely hammered in recent months as fears of the global recession have been getting louder and louder. Oil is now down to levels not seen in a long time that are having important geopolitical impacts around the world as oil rich nations that got used to the very important revenues from oil are now seeing those almost come down to a stop.

In fact, apart from a few oil rich nations such as Saudia Arabia, many other oil projects are not even reaching the breakeven point. The most obvious point is the sands in Canada that require oil above 50$ on average just to break even. Basically, the fact is that even without the OPEC cuts that were announced this week for oil, a lot of other production costs are being announced around the world.

Can Oil still go down? Absolutely! Many of the analysts that there were predicting 200$ oil earlier this year now have forecasts of 25$! And you could maybe wait for that point to jump in and go long oil (there are many ways to play it, here is a good article about ways to do so) but I would argue that this might be a good time to get involved. I don’t think I’d jump right in Monday morning, simply because there is so much momentum right now for oil to continue its slide. But I would stand ready to make a play as I don’t think we will have oil sitting at 30-35$ in 2-3 years.

So yes, this would be a long term play and I would pre-determine an exit point because remember how you will see oil at 200$ as soon as it reaches 50$…don’t get fooled, determine your trade right now and show discipline. Or maybe event setting a time limit, such as getting into a trade and deciding to get out of the trade one year from now or maybe a little more (at least wait until the world recovery is within sight and starts to be reflected in the markets).

I say this because oil might go a little down from your entry point, and you must not panic, let’s not fool ourselves, oil is NOT going to 0$:)

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Oil at Wikinvest