Ultimate Sustainable Dividend Portfolio – May 2012 Update

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 05.16.2012 (5:00 am) | Write a Comment

Last year I did some in-depth research to find long term sustainable dividend stocks and have been doing updates on this Ultimate Sustainable dividend portfolio since then in the attempt to show how well such a portfolio can perform over the long term but also show how I would manage such a portfolio. I have said it before, I do not believe in stocks that you can hold “forever”. Thus, even in a long term portfolio such as this one, I will end up making some trades from time to time. I did do one last month so nothing new is coming in April. I do discuss the search for new high quality sustainable dividend stocks that can be added in our free mailing list, if ever you would like to receive those types of updates, please join, it’s free:


Keep in mind that this portfolio was built by selecting 20 stocks out of thousands. The goal is not to pick the 20 best dividend stocks but rather to pick a diversified, high quality portfolio that will keep dividends increasing over time.

Here are the holdings as of last night to start off (please note that currently, dividends are not reinvested automatically through a DRIP strategy):

TickerNameSharesSept 13 PricesSept 13 ValuesMay 15 PricesMay 15 Values
OMCOmnicom Group Inc25.738.91$999.99$50.45 $1,296.57
MSFTMicrosoft Corp38.426.04$999.94$30.21 $1,160.06
JCIJohnson Controls Inc34.828.74 $1,000.15 $31.38 $1,092.02
PEPPepsiCo Inc/NC16.560.54$998.91$67.85 $1,119.53
ETNEaton Corp25.439.31$998.47$44.09 $1,119.89
DOVDover Corp19.551.2$998.40$57.25 $1,116.38
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc2343.41$998.43$55.37 $1,273.51
XLNXXilinx Inc32.231.08 $1,000.78 $32.78 $1,055.52
SJMJM Smucker Co/The1471.65 $1,003.10 $76.89 $1,076.46
BLKBlackRock Inc6.6151.22$998.05$176.85 $1,167.21
TROWT Rowe Price Group Inc19.950.36 $1,002.16 $59.41 $1,182.26
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp12.480.45$997.58$79.90$990.76
COPConocoPhillips19.863964.76$997.30$52.53 $1,043.45
MURMurphy Oil Corp19.551.33 $1,000.94
XOMExxon Mobil Corp1471.65 $1,003.10 $81.79 $1,145.06
ADIAnalog Devices Inc3033.28$998.40$36.90 $1,107.00
LLTCLinear Technology Corp34.129.33 $1,000.15 $30.16 $1,028.46
HASHasbro Inc27.836.03 $1,001.63 $36.00 $1,000.80
MATMattel Inc37.926.375$999.61$31.98 $1,212.04
INTCIntel Corp48.220.76 $1,000.63 $26.88 $1,295.62
AFL24.42$42.57 $1,039.56
Cash2.27$414.30
USDPUSDP Total $20,000.00 $22,936.43

Dividends Received

The Month of May will be the highest paid month for the Ultimate Sustainable Dividend Portfolio. Only $70 or so has been paid out so far this month but the other dividends have already been confirmed!

 

Ultimate Sustainable Dividend Portfolio News

More good news as 3 of the 20 names increased their dividend:) Also, COP had a spin-off go ex-dividend on May 1st. I did end up selling the spinned off unit that same day to buy more of COP.

TickerNameNews
INTCIntel CorpDividend increase from $0.21 to $0.225, a 7.1% increase
PEPPepsiCo Inc/NCDividend increase from $0.515 to $0.5375, a 4.4% increase
XOMExxon Mobil CorpDividend increase from $0.47 to $0.57, a 21.3% increase

Returns

Not much change, the USDP did outperform the S&P500 slightly over the last month but still trails by a few dollars…!

 

Trades

After adding Aflac (AFL) in March’s update, I do expect to keep more or less the same stocks for a while now. We’ll see how things go:)

Why the next Facebook might never have to pay taxes

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 05.15.2012 (5:00 am) | Write a Comment

I discuss taxes frequently on this blog. It’s a polarizing subject and one that I hate to see simplified. Some such as the new left wing French government think that simply raising taxes will bring in more revenue. That might be true in the short term but not in the long term.

Why Raising Taxes Is Not Always The Best Solution

I’ve discussed how companies such as Facebook ($FB), Google ($GOOG) and General Electric ($GE) have managed to pay a tax rate that is often below 5% through various strategies. The high US corporate tax rate is a big reason why these companies have been given enough of an incentive to be creative with their corporate structure. There is nothing illegal about it either. For some companies that ship physical products it is more difficult but even those have been able to pull it off. Apple has huge cash reserves but the vast majority of those are held overseas where they avoided the big tax payments. That also makes it more difficult to use the money for dividends or to reinvest in the US but in many cases, it’s a price that is deemed to be worth it.

An Extra “Creative” Step To Reduce The Tax Bills And Avoid Immigation Laws

As many of you know, I’m very interested in technology companies and many of these companies have been incredibly innovative in saving taxes. A big part of that is that they are very recent companies and I imagine that even non-tech international companies being set up these days put a lot of energy into creating an “optimal corporate structure” for tax purposes.

The other big issues that tech companies have these days is hiring top talent, especially when that talent is abroad. Many bright engineers go study in the US but are then unable to get a green card to work legally in the US…

A Brilliant Idea

The latest idea is a project that is being built right now. A huge ship will be stationned 12 miles off of the coast of California where tech companies will be able to rent space. The ship will be in international waters so no US work visa is required. In theory, foreign workers could either spend weeks on the ship, going back to California on weekends or maybe even do the transit every day. Companies that are stationned there would have no problem getting qualified employees that are struggling to get US cards, would not technically be operating in the US so would be able to avoid paying the big US tax rates…

Brilliant No?

Read more about it here

New Stock Pick Long LinkedIn (LNKD) & Short Pandora (P)

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 05.14.2012 (5:00 am) | Write a Comment

Wow, another brutal week as my average trade return is profitable this year but not by much and not anywhere close to last year’s very solid results. Today, I’m opening a trade that I opened just a few months ago with success.  This one comes as no surprise for the IntelligentSpeculator Tech Mailing List members (free to join if you are interested!).

Let’s look at the numbers for these 2 stocks:

TickerNamePriceEPSPE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook Value
LNKDLinkedIn Corp107.230.15903.6687.8476.16114.813.926.37
PPandora Media Inc9.26-0.19N/A292.5(2.70)99.143.730.64

I’d like to invite you to see this chart of quarterly revenues for both companies, the same chart that I posted for the last trade, I had also written the following:

“If I told you that the fastest growing company (LNKD) was also profitable (while P isn’t), that it faces little competition, is expected to increase profits significantly this year (while P will lose money this year and even next)… would you believe me if I told you that LNKD was trading at a lower forward P/E????? Crazy, I know.”

Long LinkedIn (LNKD)

A company that I love, that I truly believe in and that I think will end up doing extremely well, perhaps even better than the soon to be public Facebook. That being said, it is trading at a very high P/E, one that makes it very difficult to trade. The only way I’ve seen so far is trading it against another very high P/E stock.

I am not a momentum trader but still look at Trend Analysis numbers and the numbers certainly look promising on this trade.

Short Pandora (P)

Not a big surprise to see me short Pandora, which was near the very bottom of my 2012 Tech Stock Power rankings this year at #29. It has been losing money for years, will be losing some again this year and is actually expected to lose over $0.15 per share in 2013. Seriously!? Sure, revenues have been increasing but not nearly quickly enough. The company continues to face tons of competition and is trading at a forward P/E that implies very strong growth and a profitability in the very near term. I doubt either will happen so it’s a fairly easy short.

 

 

Disclosure: No positions on LinkedIn (LNKD) or Pandora (P), this trade will be opened on Monday morning

Closing Trade (ZNGA, NILE)

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 05.14.2012 (4:30 am) | Write a Comment

This morning I will be closing off a new trade, which stands at -21.16%, bringing down the average trade return so far this year to 0.86%!

Facebook ($FB): It’s Not All About Revenues

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 05.11.2012 (5:00 am) | Write a Comment

Everyone knows it, I’m a big believer in Facebook, in its stock $FB, and where it will lead its users, employees and investors. Facebook seems to be increasingly polarizing as its IPO approaches. Many see the biggest and most obvious sign that we are back in the a tech bubble while others such as myself think that while very risky, it:s still a great investment opportunity. I think there are plenty of arguments that are very solid reasons to think twice about buying $FB. Many others however are poor ones. Today I wanted to discuss one useless stat that has been coming up over and over:

Google revenue – $40 billion; market capitalization $200 billion (plus $40 billion of cash). Facebook revenue $4 billion; market capitalization $100 billion” – ZeroHedge

It makes a great headline, but really? Microsoft ($MSFT) makes $70B in revenues per year, less than twice Google’s but is worth nearly 3 times more. Does that Microsoft a bargain? Or maybe Yahoo ($YHOO) with a market cap of nearly $20B with revenues of $5B.

Want an even better one? Research in Motion ($RIMM) has revenues about half of Google ($GOOG) but a market cap of $7B….3.5% of Google!! I understand if you need to stop reading for a few minutes while you go load up on $RIMM…. it trades at a tiny P/E too:)

Let’s Get Serious!!!

Judging a stock with those 2 numbers is ridiculous. It might make a good headline but it’s a solid way to make investments. If you want to knock Facebook,there are plenty of good arguments to be made (recent revenues and profits decline, competition, lack of growth opportunities, questionable motives by Zuckerberg who has nearly complete control, buying shares with no actual voting power, etc). Looking at revenues misses 2 major points:

-Facebook has much higher margins than competitors
-No investor is buying Facebook at these prices based on what it has done

The second point is critical here. If Facebook is going to make revenues by selling small ads on the sidebars, generating growth by increasing its number of users and pageviews, then its valuation is insane. However, many such as myself think that Facebook will put more effort into a lot of different initiatives that will generate growth opportunities. Seeing half of Super Bowl ads point to a Facebook page has to tell you something about how much these companies believe in the value of their Facebook pages. How exactly those will be converted into dollars remains to be seen but that is why I am putting such a high value on Facebook. The company has barely tried to make profits so far. Instead, it has focused on building a strong user base, the best social network and strong relationships with corporations providing them with incredible value.

Do you agree or am I off base? Don’t get me wrong, I’m more than willing to accept criticism on my Facebook outlook but please don’t base your judgment on some meaningless stat.

 

Will Investing And Spending On Credit Lead You To Hell?

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 05.10.2012 (5:00 am) | Write a Comment

I always find it interesting when I discuss using debt. It’s a subject most of us are very passionate about. Some such as Adam Baker (from the wonderful ManVsDebt) really believe in an elimination of debt while others like my M35 partner believe in using leverage. I personally find somewhere between those 2 point of views. I thought I would discuss my point of view today to get your opinion but also because it obviously has a major impact on most of our retirements.

Three Critical Truths:

-Debt/Credit Should only be used if you can control yourself

-Debt/Credit should be built in order to build assets

-Debt/Credit should never become a source of stress

While I often disagree with my partner Mike about using extra leverage, that is mostly because I currently stand at a level that I am comfortable with both personally and in my online company.

Ways I Currently Use Credit

-Credit Card: By far, the biggest use I make of credit is for almost all of my every day expenses. I buy bigger items like vacations but even the smaller things like milk and grocery with my credit card. Why? Credit card rewards and accountability. Buying through my credit card makes it very easy to see everything that I purchased in a month. The best advantage though is the 1.5% cash back that I get from my credit card. Over a year, it becomes very significant for me.

-Big Purchases at 0% or very low rates: When buying furniture or a car, I’m usually more than happy to pay cash, at the time of the purcahse. That being said, if I get offered to pay over 24 months or longer, at a 0% interest rate, I’m more than happy to take it. It’s not worth it for a small purchase but for a bigger one, I can simply create an account where I put the money, earn interest and pay every month out of that account. Over time, it adds up. Why not take the opportunity?

-Mortgage: Here I have no other excuse than the fact that I do not have enough funds to pay back my house right away. That being said, my house is one thing I do not wish to leverage further. I’ll be more than happy to pay it back over time rather than pay only the interest as some do.

Ways I Do Not Currently Use Credit

-Investing: I do not currently use credit to invest in the markets or elsewhere….I do understand that it can bring good returns, especially over time, and I have discussed using debt to enhance a dividend portfolio in the past.

Why Don’t I Use Debt For Investing?

It’s not because I don’t believe in it. It’s not because there isn’t cheap money available. Rather, it’s simply because I only believe in leveraging myself up to a certain degree. That ratio will certainly change over time but for now, let’s imagine that my ratio is 20%. So for every $100 that I have in the markets, I’m ready to borrow 20$. That would mean a decline in the markets would have a limited impact on the markets. Why?

If I have $100 and borrow $20, a decline a 30% in the markets could make my investment worth 70% of $120- 20$ (that I owe) so $54.

Let’s imagine someone that used a 50% borrowing ratio, they would be left with:

70% of $150 – $50 that I owe is $64.

Multiply that impact over a big portfolio and it becomes very significant. Of course the opposite is true in a rising market. A rise of 30% would bring:

$145 for the highly leveraged portfolio
$136 for the lesser leveraged one

Clearly, I think every single person has a different risk tolerance, but I would love to hear your thoughts. Do you use debt and credit in every day life and for investing? If so, in what ways and what challenges/risks do you encounter?