Top 100 Dividend Stocks – March 2015 Edition – Net Neutrality?

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 03.03.2015 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

net-neutrality-21Today, I’m back with a look at the top dividend stocks (in terms of yield) in the S&P500. As is often the case, 4 of the top 9 names (WIN, CTL, T, FTR) are in the telecom space and will end up being impacted by the ruling regarding net neutrality. I’ll personally be very interested to read more about the impact over the entire industry and how it will impact some players more than others. Something that will be discussed more over time.

Who Rises To The Top?

I often talk about the danger of looking at the top of these rankings to find the best dividend plays and that companies often end up high on these lists because their stock price declines due to bad results. Just take a look at the performance of the top 4 names on this list over 6 months.

WIN Chart

WIN data by YCharts

Scary right? The #5 name though has a more encouraging chart:

CTL Chart

CTL data by YCharts

Here is the full list!

Dividend Yield
Payout Ratio
WINWindstream Holdings Inc7.8912.67250.773/27/2015
NENoble Corp plc16.649.0125.205/07/2015
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc21.635.7884.824/16/2015
MATMattel Inc26.325.78103.285/18/2015
CTLCenturyLink Inc37.865.7159.4603/04/2015
OKEONEOK Inc44.265.47139.174/29/2015
TAT&T Inc34.565.44154.7104/01/2015
HCPHCP Inc42.365.34113.3105/07/2015
FTRFrontier Communications Corp7.985.26301.6703/10/2015
IRMIron Mountain Inc36.755.17213.9103/04/2015
PMPhilip Morris International Inc82.964.8281.613/24/2015
CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc20.794.7666.85/15/2015
WMBWilliams Cos Inc/The49.044.7366.7303/11/2015
TETECO Energy Inc19.634.5995.125/14/2015
SOSouthern Co/The45.794.5994.3402/12/2015
VZVerizon Communications Inc49.454.4589.1804/08/2015
KMIKinder Morgan Inc/DE41.014.39194.914/29/2015
PPLPPL Corp34.14.3761.8603/06/2015
PBCTPeople's United Financial Inc15.134.3619.264/29/2015
HCNHealth Care REIT Inc77.114.28221.5505/07/2015
VTRVentas Inc74.474.24191.4103/04/2015
WYNNWynn Resorts Ltd142.54.2186.235/21/2015
ETREntergy Corp79.514.1863.3505/12/2015
SESpectra Energy Corp35.494.1785.2705/06/2015
GASAGL Resources Inc49.114.1641.465/13/2015
FEFirstEnergy Corp34.984.12283.9405/04/2015
EDConsolidated Edison Inc63.144.1267.595/18/2015
GRMNGarmin Ltd49.634.11101.803/12/2015
HPHelmerich & Payne Inc67.064.137.525/15/2015
PCLPlum Creek Timber Co Inc43.444.05145.325/20/2015
DUKDuke Energy Corp78.554.0590.575/20/2015
CVXChevron Corp106.684.0141.202/12/2015
POMPepco Holdings Inc27.143.98112.403/06/2015
AEEAmeren Corp42.413.8766.5403/09/2015
GMGeneral Motors Co37.313.8668.7603/09/2015
LOLorillard Inc68.423.8674.8906/03/2015
SCGSCANA Corp56.953.8355.3903/06/2015
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts Inc213.8177.43/27/2015
CCICrown Castle International Corp86.313.8179.323/18/2015
RIGTransocean Ltd16.133.7263.795/27/2015
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Inc42.063.7149.3303/06/2015
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corp64.083.7164.594/30/2015
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp77.883.7#VALUE!03/06/2015
MOAltria Group Inc56.293.777.9403/12/2015
AEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc57.583.6861.0805/08/2015
FFord Motor Co16.343.6761.254/28/2015
EXCExelon Corp33.923.6666.525/15/2015
KIMKimco Realty Corp26.283.65118.9404/01/2015
TEGIntegrys Energy Group Inc74.733.6461.845/29/2015
XELXcel Energy Inc35.283.6359.563/13/2015
DDominion Resources Inc/VA72.093.59107.085/27/2015
GMEGameStop Corp36.973.5737.2103/05/2015
RAIReynolds American Inc75.623.5499.3803/06/2015
GEGeneral Electric Co25.993.5458.266/18/2015
STXSeagate Technology PLC61.123.5335.8505/01/2015
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp52.763.4954.833/16/2015
DRIDarden Restaurants Inc643.44157.3704/10/2015
MCDMcDonald's Corp98.93.4467.65/30/2015
KRFTKraft Foods Group Inc64.063.43122.243/30/2015
DOWDow Chemical Co/The49.243.4152.193/27/2015
NOVNational Oilwell Varco Inc54.353.3928.6903/11/2015
PCGPG&E Corp53.733.3960.033/27/2015
CATCaterpillar Inc82.93.3845.14/16/2015
PLDPrologis Inc42.713.37107.43/16/2015
ABBVAbbVie Inc60.53.37157.344/13/2015
DTEDTE Energy Co82.033.3652.4903/12/2015
WECWisconsin Energy Corp50.983.3259.825/13/2015
CMSCMS Energy Corp35.133.361.3605/06/2015
WYWeyerhaeuser Co35.113.372.4305/06/2015
PFEPfizer Inc34.323.2674.0205/06/2015
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV85.913.2633.575/19/2015
EMREmerson Electric Co57.923.2556.365/13/2015
PBIPitney Bowes Inc23.173.2450.5305/06/2015
ESEversource Energy51.753.2360.595/29/2015
KMBKimberly-Clark Corp109.663.2185.2503/04/2015
CVCCablevision Systems Corp18.783.1951.4503/12/2015
WUWestern Union Co/The19.523.1831.113/13/2015
NUENucor Corp47.033.1766.413/27/2015
XOMExxon Mobil Corp88.543.1235.5705/07/2015
MACMacerich Co/The83.653.1123.9705/06/2015
COHCoach Inc43.553.147.8803/04/2015
ETNEaton Corp PLC71.013.1003/05/2015
KLACKLA-Tencor Corp64.9553.0851.2902/12/2015
AESAES Corp/VA12.973.0843.114/29/2015
CACA Inc32.523.0850.395/26/2015
SYYSysco Corp38.993.0872.313/31/2015
MRKMerck & Co Inc58.543.0743.4803/12/2015
GISGeneral Mills Inc53.793.0553.4104/10/2015
KOCoca-Cola Co/The43.33.0576.0803/12/2015
PAYXPaychex Inc49.8353.0581.3705/08/2015
KKellogg Co64.483.04107.6303/04/2015
PGProcter & Gamble Co/The85.133.03614/22/2015
MROMarathon Oil Corp27.863.0256.145/18/2015
BAXBaxter International Inc69.153.0157.103/09/2015
LMTLockheed Martin Corp200.05348.125/28/2015
NAVINavient Corp21.42.99#VALUE!03/04/2015
NEENextEra Energy Inc103.462.9851.1106/04/2015
AIVApartment Investment & Management Co37.682.9751.425/20/2015
DNRDenbury Resources Inc8.42.9705/22/2015


Are there names on this list that you like or that you are currently considering?

New Trade: Long Apple ($AAPL) & Short Blue Nile ($NILE)

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 03.02.2015 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

We’re 2 months in and the portfolio is up over 10% so I really cannot complain but I know that every time I open a short position, there is risk of a decent size loss so there’s certainly no reason to celebrate yet.

As is always the case you can see my long & short trades (from 2015 but also past years) here:

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers for today’s trade, two stocks that I’ve paired off against each other very often over the years:

PE Ratio
PE Next Year
Return YTD
Sales Growth
Analyst rating
Book Value
Sales 5Y Avg Growth
EPS 5Y Avg Growth
Sales 5Y Avg Growth
EPS 5Y Avg Growth
AAPLApple Inc128.4617.313.916.766.954.3321.170.8430.0439.3248.25N/AN/A
NILEBlue Nile Inc29.9837.1225.46-

Not a surprise here and while NILE is not as great of a short as it once was (borrow remains expensive and not as overvalued) but if you look at this chart and tell me that NILE is (much) more expensive, it looks like a no-brainer. There just doesn’t seem to be that much upside in NILE.

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) Chart

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

$AAPLLong Apple Inc (AAPL)

No shock here. I closed my long & short trade on Apple on Friday (but kept my bigger long position) mostly to take some gains but it’s not a surprise to most of you to see me jump right back in. Apple is a great stock for a few reasons but the main one is that the potential upside/downside risk remains incredibly positive to me. To have a stock that continues to dominate an exploding sector trading at such a low valuation screams buy. No, I don’t expect the stock to move by 40-50% in the next few months but I do think AAPL will continue to outperform the market thanks to its dominating iPhone, its ecosystem as well as mostly only upside from new product categories such as the Apple watch.


Next earnings release: April 23rd 2015

$NILEShort Blue Nile (NILE)

Shorting NILE is not a no-brainer because as I mentioned it’s expensive to borrow and it’s no longer trading at those crazy P/E ratios. That being said, a the company continues to be very disappointing and has not seen as much explosion as you’d hope. There are some stocks that I short but that I have real worry that they’ll explode higher because of a takeover offer or a big surprise in revenues/earnings. I don’t have that same fear with NILE (I’m probably jinxing it now) as I feel like the upside is limited. I also doubt the stock will decline much, it will be more a sideways move as has been the case for years.

ycharts_chart (1)

Next earnings release: May 1st 2015

Disclaimer: Long position on Apple and I will open this trade on today’s open

Closing Trade ($AAPL, $AOL)

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 02.27.2015 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment
Today, I will be closing my first trade of the year where I went long Apple ($APPL) and shorted AOL inc ($AOL). That trade is now up over 47%, not too bad right? It has certainly helped the overall portfolio which is up 11.42% (see all trades here).
Why am I closing the trade? No it’s not because I don’t believe in Apple. In fact, it’s very likely that I will open a new position with Apple (and I do still own it as one of my 3 long term speculative picks). Rather, I’m closing it because the trade is up nearly 50% and I’d like to take the opportunity to revisit it and see if I can find a better trade going forward.
Here is the chart since opening the pick on Jan 5th.
AAPL Chart

AAPL data by YCharts

You can expect a new trade on Monday morning:)
Disclaimer: Long Apple ($AAPL)

New Trade: Long TripAdvisor ($TRIP) & Short Pandora ($P)

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 02.17.2015 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

The last few days were not as great with Travelzoo (one of my short positions) rising a bit but the 6.27% return so far this year remains very solid. Today I’m opening a new trade between 2 stocks trading at comparable levels but that I have extremely different longer term views about.

As is always the case you can see my long & short trades (from 2015 but also past years) here:

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers for today’s trade, two high priced stocks:

PE Ratio
PE Next Year
Return YTD
Sales Growth
Analyst rating
Book Value
Sales 5Y Avg Growth
EPS 5Y Avg Growth
Sales 5Y Avg Growth
EPS 5Y Avg Growth
PPandora Media Inc15.44N/A27.5-15.9344.3542.791.414.49N/AN/AN/AN/A
TRIPTripAdvisor Inc84.8152.8227.9310.3731.93.368.651.558.7129.4N/A31.39N/A

The chart that I always look at is below and this time, it “could” indicate that Pandora is a better buy given comparable forward valuations but the big difference is that I think Pandora’s margins will remain extremely low over time so it would need a much bigger lead in order to justify its current valuation.

TRIP Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) Chart

TRIP Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

$TRIPLong TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP)

No surprise that I’m buying TRIP again. I had closed an existing long position a week ago before the earnings and thus end up losing on a (very) big gain following the earnings release but overall, I think TRIP will continue to do extremely well and feel very comfortable holding it at these levels. I see very few if any threats to TripAdvisor. Its biggest online travel competitors are trying to expand but they’re not competing on TRIP’s “core offer” of online reviews & ratings. Priceline buying Kayak and Expedia buying Orbitz are good moves but pose no threat to TRIP in my opinion.


Next earnings release: May 6th 2015

$PShort Pandora Media Inc. (P)

Ah looking at the below chart is sad in a way. Why? I’ve been short Pandora over and over in the past few months but I still managed to miss out on much of Pandora’s decline, especially in the last month. I fear that I’m repeating myself but the bulk of my belief is that Pandora has a terrific service but is going against formidable competitors such as Spotify but also others like Apple, Google and Amazon that are willing to lose money over the long term in order to make their “ecosystems” more attractive. That is a big problem and as smart cars expand, it will become increasingly easy to access those competing services. I just don’t see how Pandora will be able to build a solid long term business and can’t possibly justify its current valuation.

ycharts_chart (1)

Next earnings release: April 24th 2015

Disclaimer: Long position on TripAdvisor (TRIP) and I will open this trade on today’s open

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Adding A Stock To My Tech Stock Dashboard ($BOX)

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 02.12.2015 (5:10 am) | Write a Comment

$BOXToday, I’m adding the first of several stocks to the list of stocks that I follow; Box Inc. (BOX)

For those of you who are new to the blog, you might know that one of the main things I blog about are my long & short tech stocks. It’s not a big part of my investments but it’s a lot more active than the rest and has done extremely well in the past few years. Evey time that I look for a trade opportunity, I start by looking at the list of stocks that I follow. That list can be found here.

I also track news, earnings reports and more for all of these companies. I generally tend to stay away from trading recently turned public companies. It is partially because I want more historical data on those companies but also because they are so volatile in the first few months. Just look at the daily movements by BOX:


What is Box?

Box is an extremely interesting company to add. It is an online file sharing company that mainly focuses on a business offering. As companies quickly move their assets towards the “cloud”, Box is very well positioned as one of the leaders. Many companies have tried to do this themselves which often ends up with security issues as we saw with the now famous Sony hacking incident.

Growing Sector But…

Box’s main problem of course is that it competes with the likes of Microsoft, Google, Dropbox, Amazon and many others in a sector where margins are quickly decreasing. Many of these companies are looking at selling this service as a way to establish a relationship with these businesses rather than trying to make money off of it which makes it extremely difficult for BOX to extract good margins and for that reason, I’d be very hesitant to pay a high valuation for a stock like that.

Beware The Company’s Financials

Like other stocks such as ZenDesk (ZEN) and Salesforce (CRM), Box should be seen as a SAAS (software as a service) company and valued based off of that. Here is a great article that explains the differences involved:

-Understanding SAAS: Why the pundits have it wrong

Do any of you have a position or opinion on BOX?

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New Trade: Long Google ($GOOG) & Short eBay ($EBAY)

avatar By: IS
Date posted: 02.11.2015 (3:30 am) | Write a Comment

Yesterday was a very good day (I’m closing my first trade) and the average trade return so far this year as shot up north of 7%. Of course, it’s still very early and things could (and will) change significantly but it’s obviously better to have a good start than a bad one (duh!).

As is always the case you can see my long & short trades (from 2015 but also past years) here:

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers for today’s trade, two high priced stocks:

PE Ratio
PE Next Year
Return YTD
Sales Growth
Analyst rating
Book Value
Sales 5Y Avg Growth
EPS 5Y Avg Growth
GOOGGoogle Inc536.94N/A15.910.2718.884.44N/AN/AN/A22.4634.7
EBAYeBay Inc55.2734.6215.96-3.1911.563.7916.260.9114.3116.1833.14

The chart that I always tend to look at is once again to be used today and I do expect the clear trend here to continue with eBay’s revenues and earnings growth slowly moving down. Google is trickier to predict but I feel confident that it will be superior to EBAY’s.

GOOG Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) Chart

GOOG Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

$googLong Google Inc. (GOOG)

To say that I have blind confidence in Google would be a lie. Even after all these years, I do still struggle to get a clear picture of Google and what it is actually trying to do. In one way, Google is a simple company that generates advertising revenues from its search engine dominant position. But then you have all of these other products, the incredible Android position, Google X, etc. I do still think though that in the end, Google is able to generate significantly higher long term growth than a company like eBay which is priced at an identical forward P/E ratio.


Next earnings release: April 16th 2015

Short eBay Inc (EBAY)

eBay has been a fairly easy company to track in the past few years which I’ve been treating mostly as an online bank because that is where most of the growth & value is.  The fact that eBay has finally confirmed it would be spinning out Paypal in a few months is a positive but as I’ve mentioned in the past I think in a way it’s a little too late for Paypal to become what it once had an opportunity to become (the default “electronic” payment system).

ycharts_chart (1)


Next earnings release: April 22nd 2015

Disclaimer: No positions on eBay (EBAY) or Google (GOOG) but I will open this trade on the open

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