Closing 2 trades ($GOOG, $NILE, $TRIP, $YELP)

By: IS
Date posted: 07.06.2016 (6:15 am) | Write a Comment

This morning, I will be closing 2 trades that unfortunately have not lived up to expectations. This has dragged down the return of the overall portfolio to 3.50%, well below what it was a few months ago. The 2 trades are:

March 24th: Long Google (GOOG) / Short Blue Nile (NILE)

GOOG_NILE_chart

May 12th: Long Tripadvisor (TRIP) / Short Yelp (YELP)

TRIP_YELP_chart

As is always the case, you can see all of our 2016 (and past years) long & short stock tech trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

 

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Is Tech Making CFD trading Better or Worse?

By: IS
Date posted: 07.06.2016 (6:00 am) | Write a Comment

CFD basically stands for Contract for Difference. CFDs are derivative products that are contractual. The parties involved in CFDs are usually two. There may be a buyer and seller. The nature of the parties involved varies in this regard. What this means is, depending on the contract, the parties involved could also be a client and broker. CFDs usually reflect the movement of the asset that underlies it. When the asset moves in the financial market relative to the position taken, profits or losses may be realized. The asset itself is never owned by any of the parties involved.

The CFD centers on a binding agreement that the buyer will be paid by the seller the difference between an asset’s value at the time of the contract and its current value.

With CFDs, traders can benefit from the upward movement of prices in what is known as long positions. Even when the prices move down in short positions, traders can take advantage of the financial instruments underlying the particular derivative.

Is Tech Making CFD trading better or worse? The answer to this question is a resounding yes. There are a number of mobile and online trading platforms and software available. Financial giants like CMC Markets have been trendsetters in the technological aspects of CFD trading. Despite these technological advances in CFD trading, traders are still reliant on the behavior of markets and strategies that are employed when trading.

Practical and Effective Trading Tools

Modern CFD trading platforms have great trading tools and features to assist traders. These tools provide accurate analyses and real-time CFD trading news items.

Reliable Real-Time Data and Information

Online and mobile CFD trading platforms provide CMC Markets and Reuter’s News insights. Such insights are quite reliable and ensure that the trader is kept well informed of emerging trends in CFD trading.

Pattern and Trend Monitoring

Technological advances enable traders to use features like pattern recognition scanners. The scanners automatically detect any common patterns that are exhibited by the CFD trading market. This enables traders to make accurate trading decisions that are informed.

Technology also enables traders to access valuable and useful economic calendars on a real time basis. Such calendars are developed and powered by reliable CFD market trackers like Dow Jones. With economic calendars, traders are able to make trades based on established and reliable timelines that are dictated by current economic events. The calendars also allow the trader to be able to determine which particular economic event will affect their CFD trading and at what particular instance.

CFD trading benefits greatly from advances in technological fields in that a trader can make use of features like advanced order tickets when trading. The trading platforms also have integral price ladders. These ladders are able to indicate the extent and depth of various CFD prices.

Traders are also able to access economic announcements, briefs, technological patterns and CFD trading price alerts. Technology has ensured that CFD traders are able to closely monitor trends in the market. The tools also analyze CFD trading trends for the traders and eliminate the hassle of doing so.

Customizable Interfaces

CFD trading platforms are designed to be customizable. The trader can tweak the platform to suit their individual trading preferences and needs. The tools and features in the CFD trading platform can be organized using a variety of intelligent layout formats. The trader is also able to store the particular layout that appeals to their particular trading style.

Client Service

In case the CFD trading markets are still open at whatever time of day, traders have access to great client support services online. These services are quite useful in case the trader has a query or needs to resolve a particular trading issue.

With CFD trading, technology has been greatly beneficial and has changed the way traders’ trade using CFD financial derivatives.

Comparison Charts

CFD platforms typically have advanced charting tools with a number of preset candle patterns. They also have technological indicators that show various CFD parameters in a concise and accurate manner. The online or mobile CFD trading platforms also have a variety of charts and comparison charts.

Is Tech Making CFD trading better or worse? It is quite evident that CFD trading has benefited greatly from technological advances. These advances have enabled traders to trade more efficiently and effectively. Online price comparisons and analyses enable traders to make informed decisions. Technology has revolutionized CFD trading in a positive and beneficial way.

 

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Spotting Trends: The Growth of Fintech

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 06.27.2016 (8:35 pm) | Write a Comment

The financial services industry has always tried to embrace new technologies in order to offer additional convenience to customers and operate more efficiently. But in recent years with the rise of cloud-based apps and mobile technology, there has been a new wave of technological innovation that is driving growth and launching promising new businesses in the financial services sector: this is the rise of fintech. The fintech industry has become one of the most exciting industries for investors and technology enthusiasts because the rise of new financial technologies is making it possible for banks and financial firms to offer new levels of convenience, efficiency, cost savings and even the ability to develop entirely new financial products that were never possible before. Fintech startups are finding new ways to process payments, collect donations, and loan money – and they’re doing it with online software and an emphasis on speed, convenience and mobile technology.

Here are a few of the reasons why the fintech industry is worthy of its recent buzz:

The Financial Services Industry is Ripe for Disruption

The financial services sector is often thought of as being a slow-moving, heavily regulated industry that is full of big, entrenched players, making it slow to change. However, the truth is, financial services is one of the industries that is most prepared for disruption by innovative outsiders. According to a survey of Inc. 500 CEOs, financial services was rated #2 of the top five sectors that are ripe for disruption (#1 was health care). The established big banks should not be too smug and complacent – many small companies are looking for new ways to deliver financial services more efficiently and in a way that better serves customers, and customers are starting to notice that there are excellent online tools available to process payments and manage other banking tasks.

Fintech Cuts Costs

A recent article from The Economist found that online lenders (some of the most prominent fintech startups) tend to have a much lower cost structure than traditional banks. For example, online lenders typically have business expenses that are only about 2 percent of their average outstanding loan balance, compared to 5-7 percent for traditional bank lenders. Fintech firms are typically able to reduce costs because they often operate online, without the costs and bureaucracy of a traditional bank’s network of brick-and-mortar branch locations. Lower costs make it possible for online lenders to issue loans more affordably, or serve a broader base of customers who might not have been able to get loans from a traditional bank.

Consumers are Ready for Fintech

People love their smartphones, and mobile apps have quickly become the everyday assistants of billions of people all over the world. People are using their smartphones and mobile devices to research products, shop online, and exchange confidential information about health care, insurance and many other aspects of their personal and financial lives – so why should financial services be any different? Consumers (and small business owners) are more comfortable than ever with online banking, mobile technologies for financial services, and other key trends in the shift to mobile marketing. This presents a huge opportunity to fintech firms.

For example, an article from the Financial Times found that transaction volume at traditional brick-and-mortar bank branches has decreased by one third in the past six years, as consumers are starting to do more of their routine banking business via online and mobile banking. The Adobe 2015 Mobile Consumer report found that 75 percent of Millennials and Gen Xers want to do online banking each month, more than 20 percent of Millennials (and 14 percent of Gen Xers) say that they want to apply for banking products online, and more than half of U.S. and U.K. mobile consumers would like to use mobile-only banking services.

The rise of fintech is keeping with several other key trends: the rise of mobile technology, the innovation of online software apps, and the growing appetite of consumers for more online and mobile banking. Anyone who is interested in seeing the latest opportunities for business growth and the evolution of the consumer economy should pay attention to the continuing rise of the fintech sector.

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New Trade: Salesforce ($CRM) & Short Zillow ($Z)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 06.21.2016 (3:46 am) | Write a Comment

Today I am opening my 15th trade of the year between between 2 names that have been part of a lot of M&A activity and rumors. Things have been going well so far this year and as is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
ZZillow Group Inc34.76N/A73.0745.0297.823.86N/AN/AN/A76.34N/A
CRMsalesforce.com Inc81.22N/A61.082.6824.074.768.241.310.0830.74N/A

$CRMLong Salesforce ($CRM)

Salesforce is certainly an interesting company to follow. First off, as a SAAS company, traditional ratios such as price/earnings and even profitability numbers are not as useful. Why? Because Salesforce has a very significant portion of its cost upfront. There are several good readings that explain this but here is a short summary. If you are able to land a client for $50 of cost of sales, and can expect to make a $20 profit for 5 years, it’s a no-brainer right? It is, but the problem is that the first year, that client will show up as a losing money client. The more clients you land, the bigger the losses. That is until you start having more clients in those later years which bring in enough profits to compensate. All of that being said, I do think CRM trades at a higher valuation than I’d like but I think it is a good play in this context. It does have significant risk of being acquired, is a leader in its field and when compared to Zillow, I do feel like it’s valuation is attractive.

 

CRM_chart

 

Next earnings: August 17th 2016

$ZShort Zillow (Z)

Zillow is an interesting company and certainly has has a nice run in the past few weeks/months but it does have its fair share of haters as well including well known short seller Citron research. The company continues to grow at a very steady rate and has a nice niche. In some ways, I don’t love the idea of shorting Z but I do think its valuation is rich right now and that the risk vs. reward on this trade is worth it.

Z_chart

Next earnings: August 2nd 2016

Disclaimer: This trade on CRM-Z will be done on today’s opening,
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New Trade: Paypal ($PYPL) & Short IAC Interactive ($IAC)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 06.14.2016 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

Today I am opening my 14th trade of the year between between 2 of the older players on my list. Things have been going well so far this year and as is always the case, you can see past 2016 (and previous years) trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaEarningsMkt CapRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
IACIAC/InterActiveCorp53.3159.9312.83-9.293.94.225.691.077/25/2016 $4,313,765,104.09 38.9513.047.02
PYPLPayPal Holdings Inc36.5433.420.861.5715.244.0611.26N/A7/27/2016 $44,566,220,398.51 7.57N/AN/A

Paypal is fairly new as a separate company but still worth looking at my usual chart:

 

IAC_PYPL_chart


Long Paypal (PYPL)

Despite a growing level of competition in the online payments space, Paypal remains the one dominant player thanks mostly to the lock-in/network effects. It also has been the one dominant global player while others such as Amazon (AMZN), Appel (AAPL), and Stripe continue to work on expanding their capabilities. I do still have my doubts about PYPL’s longer term position but it has been making some smart bets in the form of Venmo for example. The biggest argument for buying PYPL today is that relative to its valuation, it remains cheap compared to most of my board. Also, there have been rumors of a possible takeover of Paypal (PYPL) and that is certainly a nice option.

PYPL_chart

 

pypl

Next earnings: July 27th 2016

Short IAC Interactive (IAC)

In many ways, IAC has been an incredible engine of growth over the past decade. Shareholders have done well on the condition that they kept shares of units that ended up being spun off such as Expedia (EXPE), Tripadvisor (TRIP), Match Group (MTCH) but if you look at the return of the parent company alone, it has not been as impressive and I’m willing to bet that will continue by taking a new short position on it.

 

IAC_chart

Next earnings: July 25th 2016

Disclaimer: This trade on PYPL-IAC will be done on today’s opening,
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Closing 1 Trade ($MTCH, $IAC)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 06.13.2016 (3:00 am) | Write a Comment

Good morning, I hope all of you had a good weekend! This morning, I will be closing a trade done on April 14th when I went long Match Group (MTCH) against IAC Interactive (IAC), two companies that were part of the same entity a few months ago. The trade has gone incredibly well and currently stands at +33%. You can see the details of our 2016 (and previous years) trading at:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

You can expect 1-2 new trades this week. That’s it for now!

MTCH_IAC_chart (1)

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Investing Rules for Binary Option Investors

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 05.24.2016 (8:23 am) | Write a Comment

 

 

Investing in common stocks could sometimes requires lot of time and effort. I recently found a new investing vehicle enabling investors to start with little money and little knowledge; it is called binary options. Banc de Binary is a great resource to understand binary options.

Binary options explained

Binary options are relatively easy to understand. You need to create an account with a broker that will give you access to their investing platform. All options are listed with the expected return if you make a successful trade. You then select an asset and decide if it will go up or down within a defined time frame. The expiry time frame could be a small as 30 seconds and the amount invested could be as small as $1.

Rule #1 know what you trade

Since most binary option expires in a very short time frame, it is crucial to understand what you are trading. Selecting the right type of asset is crucial. You can select assets you understand and know how they will react to events on the stock market. This is the most effective way to invest in binary options. Conducting further research is advised as you don’t want to gamble your money, you would rather invest it.

Rule #2 concentrate on a small basket of assets

If you are trying to trade on everything you can, you will invest, and more likely lose lots of money. Each asset type has their own characteristics and you should rather concentrate on a few of them to thoroughly understand instead of barely know how each asset evolves over time.

Rule #3 plan carefully

Typically, you earn very strong return on your investment while you will lose it all if you are wrong. For example, if you invest $100 in a binary option, you will either complete your trade with $185 in your pocket or $0 if you are wrong. This is why it is important not to invest too much money on a single trade and to know when it is the right time to cash your investment and stop trading. Don’t try to “make up” for a loss trade by taking additional risk on your next one.

One last tip

If you never traded binary options before, a very good idea could be to open a demo account. Most brokers offer you the possibility to open a real account with no money. You can then start making fictitious trades to see how you could be making money with this system. It will allow you get familiar with the platform and how binary option works. You can make your rookie mistakes within the demo platform and get ready for real investments afterwards. By testing your trading aptitudes and strategy, you can see if you could make money in the real world. This is probably the best way to initiate yourself to binary options.

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New Trade: Long TripAdvisor ($TRIP) & Short Yelp ($YELP)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 05.12.2016 (4:02 am) | Write a Comment

Today I am opening my 13th trade of the year between 2 stocks that trade at similar forward P/E ratios. It is the exact same trade that I closed earlier this case which might look strange but that is one reason why I do use stop losses. It gives me the opportunity to revisit my options and I ended up finding that my best trade opportunity was one that I had just closed. As is always the case you can see the existing live trades here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

Let’s start off by looking at the numbers:

TickerNamePricePE RatioPE Next YearReturn YTDSales GrowthAnalyst ratingBook ValueBetaRevenue/ShareSales 5Y Avg GrowthEPS 5Y Avg Growth
TRIPTripAdvisor Inc65.6764.2229.51-22.4619.743.0710.051.4710.3619.33-6.2
YELPYelp Inc25.31N/A30.64-8.6145.63.479.171.227.3657.8-133.32

This chart certainly looks terrible for TRIP

TRIP_YELP_chart

But this one from Google Trends probably looks worse for YELP:

trends

$TRIPLong Tripadvisor (TRIP)

I have obviously been a big believer in TRIP and in many ways that has been a very painful position as the continues to struggle being down 22% so far this year. There are many different stories about what’s happening and I’ve obviously been paying very close attention as it is one of my 3 bigger tech stock positions (with FB and AAPL). As TRIP continues to roll out its Instant Booking platform, it has gained steam in terms of having major partners sign up but that has been translating into shorter term challenges as it sends business to its own less optimized, less profitable solution rather than getting compensated by the likes of EXPE and PCLN. In the end, TRIP continues to grow its community and is adapting better than competitors to mobile so I do remain very confident in its long term future.

TRIP_YELP_chart (1)

Next earnings: August 4th 2016

yelpShort Yelp (YELP)

In many ways, YELP has been unimpressive in my opinion. When you look at recent trends in revenues and other metrics, you could say that TRIP and YELP are both suffering but I think the explanations and overall strategy of TRIP makes a lot more sense. YELP is an extremely competitive space facing the likes of Priceline’s (PCLN) Open Table, AngieList, Google with other major players like Facebook and Amazon looking to also compete in the local listings space. YELP has struggled to adapt to mobile and in a world that is increasingly going mobile only, that is obviously a very problem. I did get burned being short YELP recently and that is a risk with any short position going into earnings season but I do feel confident that it will not happen again with YELP.

YELP_chart

Next earnings: July 27th 2016

Disclaimer: This trade on TRIP-YELP will be done on today’s opening. I am currently long TRIP.
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Closing 2 Trades (TRIP, YELP, PYPL, TWTR)

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 05.10.2016 (3:41 am) | Write a Comment

$yelpThis morning I will be closing 2 different trades, one that has done extremely well and the other not as well!

#1-From March 7th, I had gone long Tripadvisor (TRIP) vs. Short Yelp (YELP) which currently stands at -33.94% mostly because of YELP shooting up following its most recent earnings.

TRIP_YELP_chart

$PYPL#2-April 1st: Long Paypal (PYPL) vs. Short Twitter (TWTR): I’m probably due for an update on my thoughts on Twitter but it’s safe to say that in the past few months, being short has generally led to good trades

PYPL_TWTR_chart

As is always the case, you can see the live trades of this year where the long & short portfolio stands at +10,35% (and past ones) here:

http://www.intelligentspeculator.net/livetrades

How to Get Better at Trading Binary Options

By: ispeculatornew
Date posted: 04.26.2016 (7:27 am) | Write a Comment

Binary options are a bit deceptive. On the surface, it looks like trading options should be relatively easy. After all, you’ve probably heard all about how binary options can do well in any market. You can also pick from a long list of underlying assets too, which is especially helpful for those who already have a background in investing. Therefore, if you haven’t seen any outstanding results yet from your time trading options, it can be easy to get frustrated. Before you give up, though, consider the following ways of getting better at binary options.

Consider Your Broker and Software

binary options, trading binary options, trading options, getting better at binary options

If your broker isn’t pulling their weight, you’re always going to be suffering from poor results when trading binary options. Due to the unique features of this type of trading, brokers are probably more important to those who invest in binaries than any other type of investor.

Likewise, the software brokers provide their clients will play a huge role in their success (or lack therefore).

As such, if you’re currently trading binary options, but not seeing the returns you had expected, it makes sense that you should take a good, hard look at your broker.

Learn More about Your Market

Still, it might not be fair to blame your broker. It could be that your lackluster track record with trading options is because you don’t actually understand the market you’re focusing on. This means not just having a grasp on the underlying asset you favor, but the market you’re doing your trades in. If you haven’t picked both of these yet, that’s definitely the problem.

However, even if you have picked an underlying asset and market to focus on, it might be time to hold off on trading while you study both of them a bit more.

Trade More

Provided that those first two issues are definitely not the problem, you may be surprised that the solution we recommend is to actually make more trades. After all, practice makes perfect. At the moment, if you’re not regularly trading binary options, it’s definitely going to take you a significant amount of time before you begin posting big profits.

How much trading is enough? That will really depend on your budget and schedule. Again, though, the more you practice, the faster you’ll improve.

Fortunately, you can sign up for practice accounts that allow you to trade like the real thing, but without actually putting up any money.

Manage Your Money Better

Be honest with yourself: are you currently seeing small profits because so much of your returns get mitigated by big losses? If that’s the case, you need to start managing your money better. Lower your monthly budget so you’re forced to make better decisions and can’t keep funding your investing when it’s clear you need to take a breather.

You can get help with this from a spouse or pick a friend to be your accountability partner. Tell them what your monthly budget is and then make sure you follow up with them regularly about your current status.

Until you’re able to manage your finances and stick to a budget, none of these other tips will do much for you. In fact, they may simply contribute to a situation that ends up costing you dearly.

Getting better at binary options is something that could take years. However, the financial rewards are worth it. If you’re currently trading binary options but know you could do better, apply the above advice to your situation and expect results.

For more information:

https://www.facebook.com/onetwotrade

https://twitter.com/OneTwoTrad

 

 

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